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#1
A rare Sunday evening UFC card hits Fox Sports 1 tonight. There are several fights on this card that may be worthy of a very small bet, but you're probably just better off sticking with the ones you're most confident in. That's what I'm going to attempt to do here. Lots of unknowns, short notices, etc. in these fights.
I love the Dillashaw/Cruz match-up and I hope it lives up to the hype. To me, it all comes down to what version of Cruz we get. The Mizugaki outcome didn't really show me much, so I'm still left wondering how Cruz looks after all those years of injuries and time off. I want to see how good that footwork still is. Since we don't know how he'll look for sure, I see no way you can take Cruz at such small odds here. It's either Dillashaw or pass in my opinion. 5Dimes offers a nice little prop that allows your bet to be cancelled if it goes the distance. The odds obviously change a bit for this prop, so it's usually only useful in certain situations. I think this is the perfect situation. I don't see Cruz having the power to finish Dillashaw. Cruz's only chance here is to outpoint him to a decision. And even that probably won't happen. I think Dillashaw has good enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing for the most part, where he will have an output and power advantage. If the fight manages to go the distance, then I get my money back. It's essentially me picking Dillashaw "Inside the Distance" with a little bit of an insurance policy in case he doesn't get the job done (keep in mind I don't think Cruz can finish him). This seems to be the perfect way to wager on this fight in my opinion.
Pettis got schooled by RDA last time out and then had another injury setback. Hard to say how great Pettis will look here, but I certainly feel more confident in him than Alvarez. Alvarez has been in so many wars, got picked apart by Cerrone (who has a similar kicking game to Pettis), and then got dropped by Gilbert and did almost nothing the rest of the fight. He's just too shot in my opinion and I don't think he offers enough power on the feet to starch Pettis. If he tries to close the distance and utilize his wrestling, maybe he has a shot. I don't see it playing out that way. I think he it becomes a kickboxing match and Pettis lands something pretty. This is a "get back on track" type of fight for Pettis that the UFC is handing him in my opinion. He will be main paraly cog for me.
The rest of my plays are smaller. Browne/Mitrione should knock each other out, Cruickshank sucks and is going to get blasted by Felder at some point, Rosa is the better fighter who's not coming in on short notice, and Barroso is one of the most boring/inactive fighters on the roster. There's my quick analysis on those fights lol. Good luck on your bets guys!
UFC Fight Night 81
10 Unit Play
T.J. Dillashaw (Scorecards = No Action) (-185)
5 Unit Play
C. Wade + A. Pettis (-150)
3 Unit Plays
P. Felder + A. Pettis (-120)
E. Mutapcic + T. Browne/M. Mitrione Under 3 Rounds (-120)
C. Rosa + A. Pettis (-120)
2016 Record: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
I love the Dillashaw/Cruz match-up and I hope it lives up to the hype. To me, it all comes down to what version of Cruz we get. The Mizugaki outcome didn't really show me much, so I'm still left wondering how Cruz looks after all those years of injuries and time off. I want to see how good that footwork still is. Since we don't know how he'll look for sure, I see no way you can take Cruz at such small odds here. It's either Dillashaw or pass in my opinion. 5Dimes offers a nice little prop that allows your bet to be cancelled if it goes the distance. The odds obviously change a bit for this prop, so it's usually only useful in certain situations. I think this is the perfect situation. I don't see Cruz having the power to finish Dillashaw. Cruz's only chance here is to outpoint him to a decision. And even that probably won't happen. I think Dillashaw has good enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing for the most part, where he will have an output and power advantage. If the fight manages to go the distance, then I get my money back. It's essentially me picking Dillashaw "Inside the Distance" with a little bit of an insurance policy in case he doesn't get the job done (keep in mind I don't think Cruz can finish him). This seems to be the perfect way to wager on this fight in my opinion.
Pettis got schooled by RDA last time out and then had another injury setback. Hard to say how great Pettis will look here, but I certainly feel more confident in him than Alvarez. Alvarez has been in so many wars, got picked apart by Cerrone (who has a similar kicking game to Pettis), and then got dropped by Gilbert and did almost nothing the rest of the fight. He's just too shot in my opinion and I don't think he offers enough power on the feet to starch Pettis. If he tries to close the distance and utilize his wrestling, maybe he has a shot. I don't see it playing out that way. I think he it becomes a kickboxing match and Pettis lands something pretty. This is a "get back on track" type of fight for Pettis that the UFC is handing him in my opinion. He will be main paraly cog for me.
The rest of my plays are smaller. Browne/Mitrione should knock each other out, Cruickshank sucks and is going to get blasted by Felder at some point, Rosa is the better fighter who's not coming in on short notice, and Barroso is one of the most boring/inactive fighters on the roster. There's my quick analysis on those fights lol. Good luck on your bets guys!
UFC Fight Night 81
10 Unit Play
T.J. Dillashaw (Scorecards = No Action) (-185)
5 Unit Play
C. Wade + A. Pettis (-150)
3 Unit Plays
P. Felder + A. Pettis (-120)
E. Mutapcic + T. Browne/M. Mitrione Under 3 Rounds (-120)
C. Rosa + A. Pettis (-120)
2016 Record: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
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