Posted:
#1
Injuries
turned this card from a PPV into a free event on Fox Sports 1. This
card features a lot of fighters I like in the -250 to -400 range. That
always makes it tough from a betting perspective, because it forces you
into having to use parlays typically. For this particular event, I have
chose to mix and match a lot of the same fighters across the board, in
hopes that 1 guy losing doesn't ruin my entire night. 5Dimes also
provides some prop options that I'm going to be utilizing for this card,
to help me reduce the juice in a few of those parlays. If you can't
follow my plays exactly or your book doesn't offer some of the "Under 3
Rounds" options, then you can at least still make your own plays based
off of the main fighters you see across my parlays. Play them in
whichever way you are most comfortable with. Here is my quick rundown of
the fighters I'm betting on:
Hendricks/Thompson: I really like Hendricks in this matchup and if the earlier fights go well, I may be adding on to Hendricks before the night is over. Hendricks has fought the elite of the elite in the division. In fact, one could easily argue that he was robbed against GSP, as well as robbed in the 2nd fight against Lawler. I certainly would agree that he won both of those decisions. That would mean Hendricks would be the champ, riding a tremendous win streak, and having one of the best resumes in the UFC with wins over GSP/Condit/Lawler 2x/Brown. He had issues cutting weight and it seemed like all of a sudden everyone turned on him. Don't get it twisted, Hendricks is still elite. I'm sure most people, including myself, wanted to wait and see how he looked at the weigh-ins and if he had any issues during this camp. He looked great and didn't appear to have any problems making weight this time around. That is bad news for Thompson in my opinion. Thompson may have some flashy strikes early on, but I don't think he can KO Hendricks, outside of a flukey punch/kick. Hendricks has stood in there with all of those top guys I just mentioned and never been rocked. He's also been in several 5 round fights. I see this playing out fairly straight forward. Hendricks keeps it even on the feet, clinches Thompson up against the fence, works for takedowns, and controls him on the ground. I even think there is a good chance we see Hendricks land a KO at some point. There is a small path to victory for Thompson, but it's an unlikely one. Hendricks by decision, with a possibility of a late KO is my prediction.
Nelson/Rosholt: Not a lot to say on this one and I'm only using this fight in 1 of my wagers. Roy Nelson either gets the KO at some point in the fight on a hittable Rosholt, or Rosholt does what he does and grinds out a decision W from top position after Nelson gasses. I don't see Rosholt getting a finish, nor do I see Nelson getting a decision victory. 5Dimes offers the prop Nelson (Scorecards = No Action) and this is the perfect opportunity to utilize it. My prediction is obviously Nelson by KO or my bet gets cancelled.
OSP/Cavalcante: Let me make myself clear when I say OSP is an overrated fighter. FACT. I get so annoyed when the UFC keeps hyping him up like he's some up-and-coming prospect. He's not. He's about to turn 33. He typically takes care of guys that are on the lower end of the division and he struggles when given one of the top guys. This time around, he gets Cavalcante, who doesn't fall into the "top guys" category. He's aging, has looked horrible of late, and gasses very early in his fights. He will likely come in throwing some bombs, but OSP stays out of trouble, picks his spots, and lands something of his own. My prediction is OSP by KO in the second round.
Benavidez/Makovsky: I think Makovsky is a solid fighter all-around, but simply put, Benavidez is just a bit better everywhere. Not only that, but Benavidez is faster and has more KO power. Benavidez loses title fights to D. Johnson, but doesn't lose to guys like Makovsky. I think this plays out over 3 rounds, with Benavidez getting the better of Makovsky for 15 minutes. With Makovsky not well known for getting KOs, I don't see a great path to victory for him here. He likely hangs tough for the duration of the fight and loses a clear-cut decision. My prediction is Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Cirkunov/Nicholson: Huge odds here, as Cirkunov is a -1000 favorite. That line makes it a bit difficult to get involved, because Nicholson has a puncher's chance, albeit a small one. I would rather bet on the fact that this fight doesn't make it all 3 rounds, and even that it doesn't make it past 2 rounds. That way, if Nicholson does somehow land something crazy, I don't lose my bet on Cirkunov. I'm confident that there is no way this one makes it to the judges. Under 3 rounds, as well as under 2 rounds, are my plays here.
Grabowski/Lewis: Not much analysis needed here. 1 word. Heavyweights. Lewis likely takes off Grabowski's head in the first few minutes or Grabowski takes Lewis down and locks in a sub at some point. Regardless, I don't see this one going the distance. Under 3 rounds is the play for me here.
Lahat/Rivas: I think this is a great style matchup for Lahat, who has a decisive wrestling advantage. I think he even gets a stoppage during the course of the fight. My prediction is Lahat by submission in Round 2.
UFC Fight Night 82
5 Unit Plays
J. Benavidez + J. Hendricks (-130)
N. Lahat + OSP (-130)
N. Lahat + J. Hendricks (-120)
J. Benavidez + OSP + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 3 Rds (-125)
OSP + J. Hendricks + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 3 Rds (+100)
D. Grabowski/D. Lewis Under 3 Rds + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + OSP/R. Cavalcante Under 3 Rds (-115)
D. Grabowski/D. Lewis Under 3 Rds + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + J. Benavidez (-110)
M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + J. Benavidez + R. Nelson (Scorecards = No Action) (-130)
3 Unit Play
R. Borg + J. Hendricks (-105)
2016 Record: 8-6 (+15.45 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
Hendricks/Thompson: I really like Hendricks in this matchup and if the earlier fights go well, I may be adding on to Hendricks before the night is over. Hendricks has fought the elite of the elite in the division. In fact, one could easily argue that he was robbed against GSP, as well as robbed in the 2nd fight against Lawler. I certainly would agree that he won both of those decisions. That would mean Hendricks would be the champ, riding a tremendous win streak, and having one of the best resumes in the UFC with wins over GSP/Condit/Lawler 2x/Brown. He had issues cutting weight and it seemed like all of a sudden everyone turned on him. Don't get it twisted, Hendricks is still elite. I'm sure most people, including myself, wanted to wait and see how he looked at the weigh-ins and if he had any issues during this camp. He looked great and didn't appear to have any problems making weight this time around. That is bad news for Thompson in my opinion. Thompson may have some flashy strikes early on, but I don't think he can KO Hendricks, outside of a flukey punch/kick. Hendricks has stood in there with all of those top guys I just mentioned and never been rocked. He's also been in several 5 round fights. I see this playing out fairly straight forward. Hendricks keeps it even on the feet, clinches Thompson up against the fence, works for takedowns, and controls him on the ground. I even think there is a good chance we see Hendricks land a KO at some point. There is a small path to victory for Thompson, but it's an unlikely one. Hendricks by decision, with a possibility of a late KO is my prediction.
Nelson/Rosholt: Not a lot to say on this one and I'm only using this fight in 1 of my wagers. Roy Nelson either gets the KO at some point in the fight on a hittable Rosholt, or Rosholt does what he does and grinds out a decision W from top position after Nelson gasses. I don't see Rosholt getting a finish, nor do I see Nelson getting a decision victory. 5Dimes offers the prop Nelson (Scorecards = No Action) and this is the perfect opportunity to utilize it. My prediction is obviously Nelson by KO or my bet gets cancelled.
OSP/Cavalcante: Let me make myself clear when I say OSP is an overrated fighter. FACT. I get so annoyed when the UFC keeps hyping him up like he's some up-and-coming prospect. He's not. He's about to turn 33. He typically takes care of guys that are on the lower end of the division and he struggles when given one of the top guys. This time around, he gets Cavalcante, who doesn't fall into the "top guys" category. He's aging, has looked horrible of late, and gasses very early in his fights. He will likely come in throwing some bombs, but OSP stays out of trouble, picks his spots, and lands something of his own. My prediction is OSP by KO in the second round.
Benavidez/Makovsky: I think Makovsky is a solid fighter all-around, but simply put, Benavidez is just a bit better everywhere. Not only that, but Benavidez is faster and has more KO power. Benavidez loses title fights to D. Johnson, but doesn't lose to guys like Makovsky. I think this plays out over 3 rounds, with Benavidez getting the better of Makovsky for 15 minutes. With Makovsky not well known for getting KOs, I don't see a great path to victory for him here. He likely hangs tough for the duration of the fight and loses a clear-cut decision. My prediction is Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Cirkunov/Nicholson: Huge odds here, as Cirkunov is a -1000 favorite. That line makes it a bit difficult to get involved, because Nicholson has a puncher's chance, albeit a small one. I would rather bet on the fact that this fight doesn't make it all 3 rounds, and even that it doesn't make it past 2 rounds. That way, if Nicholson does somehow land something crazy, I don't lose my bet on Cirkunov. I'm confident that there is no way this one makes it to the judges. Under 3 rounds, as well as under 2 rounds, are my plays here.
Grabowski/Lewis: Not much analysis needed here. 1 word. Heavyweights. Lewis likely takes off Grabowski's head in the first few minutes or Grabowski takes Lewis down and locks in a sub at some point. Regardless, I don't see this one going the distance. Under 3 rounds is the play for me here.
Lahat/Rivas: I think this is a great style matchup for Lahat, who has a decisive wrestling advantage. I think he even gets a stoppage during the course of the fight. My prediction is Lahat by submission in Round 2.
UFC Fight Night 82
5 Unit Plays
J. Benavidez + J. Hendricks (-130)
N. Lahat + OSP (-130)
N. Lahat + J. Hendricks (-120)
J. Benavidez + OSP + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 3 Rds (-125)
OSP + J. Hendricks + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 3 Rds (+100)
D. Grabowski/D. Lewis Under 3 Rds + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + OSP/R. Cavalcante Under 3 Rds (-115)
D. Grabowski/D. Lewis Under 3 Rds + M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + J. Benavidez (-110)
M. Cirkunov/A. Nicholson Under 2 Rds + J. Benavidez + R. Nelson (Scorecards = No Action) (-130)
3 Unit Play
R. Borg + J. Hendricks (-105)
2016 Record: 8-6 (+15.45 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
0
GLuck.
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