UFC Fight Night Berlin Write-up / Predictions

Scott Askham v. Antonio dos Santos Jr.

Askham lost his UFC debut to Magnus Cedenblad, which capped off a 3 fight win streak for Cedenblad. This marked the first loss in his career, putting him at 12-1 professionally, which includes 7 KO, 2 Sub & 3 Decisions. He’s got decent striking, but leaves a lot to be desired on the ground. He was winning the fight on the feet against Cedenblad, but had no answer for Cedenblad’s 3 takedowns. In this fight, his height and reach will be his only advantage.

Dos Santos Jr. is the former Jungle Fight LHW champion, but has a modest pro record of 6-2. He’s coming off a TKO loss to Daniel Sarafian in his UFC debut. The loss was bullshit though- he dislocated his finger and he popped it back into place, but the ref waived off the fight immediately because Jr tried to temporarily stop the fight to pop his finger back. This fight was a striking war amongst 2 friends and former roommates. When I say war, I mean WAR. These two were throwing hands and feet like crazy. Both fighters could have finished the other with any one of the strikes that was thrown. Dos Santos Jr. was winning the fight and suffered a tough loss due to injury.

When it’s a big guy against a little guy, I normally go for the size advantage. If size weren’t at play here, I’d say that dos Santos is the superior striker. But I believe Askham will keep dos Santos at bay and get a decision win.

My Pick: Scott Askham (decision)

Niklas Backstrom v. Noad Lahat

Backstrom is 8-1 as a pro and has gone 1-1 in the UFC, winning his debut with a first round submission over Tom Niinimaki, but losing is last outing to Mike Wilkinson with a first round knockout. He has a 75% finish rate on his pro career. He is a Swedish champion in submission wrestling, though only 2 of his 8 MMA wins have come by sub. He looked okay in his debut, which he took on short notice. He was quickly taken down by Niinimaki, but it didn’t take long for him to get back up, only to be taken down a couple of more times. The fight was really, really boring for the first 3 minutes with almost zero action. Then Backstrom jumped into a guillotine from a clinch, which was unsuccessful. They got back up, and Backstrom landed a nasty knee to Niinimaki’s head which setup a schoolyard choke, which finished the fight.

He showed what may be the worst chin in MMA in his last fight. He did a good job early in the fight of keeping the fight at range, which is good for a fighter with a long & lanky build like his. He landed a few leg kicks here and there and a couple of great knees to the head from the plum clinch. But shortly after, Wilkinson threw a relatively harmless looking shot from a very akward position. There didn’t appear to be much power on it, but placement was everything as it knocked Backstrom out cold before he hit the mat.

Noad Lahat is a black belt in BJJ and a 2nd degree black belt in Judo. He was a BJJ world champion in 2010. He’s a former soldier in the Israeli army, now fighting out of AKA, a name you probably know. He has a matching 8-1 pro record with 1-1 in the UFC, and even has an identical finishing rate of 75%. Lahat lost his UFC debut against Godofredo Pepey in a first round KO by flying knee. I don’t hold it against him though, because in my opinion Godofredo is one of the top fighters at 145 but is relatively unknown. Lahat looked decent early against Pepey, landing some good strikes and showing good defense against an electric striker. Eventually Pepey struck though, and it was a nasty flying knee that knocked Lahat unconscious before he hit the mat.

Lahat avenged his loss in his last fight, earning a decision win over Steven Siler. He immediately took down Siler but got stuck in Siler’s pretty good guard. The fight was stood back up, and Lahat looked good throwing his hands and showed great footwork. Lahat did take some good strikes, but he threw better strikes at a higher volume throughout the fight. Lahat nearly finished the fight in round 2 with a rear naked choke, but as quickly as Siler could escape, Lahat transitioned to a nice triangle choke while landing vicious elbows against his locked up opponent. He also started working an armbar while holding the triangle, which he rolled into a mount where the elbows continued. He ended up winning the fight by decision, but Siler was absolutely saved by the bell at the end of round 2. Lahat really showed what black belt jiu jitsu looks like.

I’m taking Lahat in this fight at a great underdog price of +190. His striking is constantly improving since training at AKA, and his grappling credentials are superior. I don’t see Backstrom denying his takedowns, and I think Lahat is going to definitely exploit the grappling advantage due to Backstrom’s size and reach advantage. Additionally, I think Lahat will have a higher motivation factor, being an Israeli soldier fighting in Germany. I can only imagine what that must be like.

Alan Omer v. Arnold Allen

Olmer is 18-4 pro with a career 89% finish rate, and is coming off a split decision loss in his UFC debut that he probably should have won. He dominated the striking in that fight, though Jim Alers did land a couple of takedowns on him. He looked aggressive, throwing good punches and kicks, but Jim Alers just wanted to take him down. He’s an Iraqi fighting out of Germany, so he may (or may not) have the home crowd on his side. He’s won a few regional and national titles in Germany, and holds a purple belt in BJJ.

Arnold Allen is coming in on short notice for this fight, and it is his UFC debut. The Englishman is young at only 21, and has a 9-1 pro record including 5 KO, 2 Sub & 2 Decision wins. His lone loss came by decision.

I don’t know anything about Arnold Allen, so I’m taking Olmer by default. Olmer has twice as many pro fights, and he got robbed in his UFC debut which ended a 4 win streak that included 3 finishes, which included an Omoplata submission and a Triangle Choke. While those finishes didn’t happen in the UFC, they speak to the skill this guy has on the ground. I’ll take those numbers any day against a 21 year old making his debut on short notice.

My Pick: Alan Omer (submission)

Mairbek Taisumov v. Alan Patrick

Mairbek Taisumov is another badass Russian grapplier. He was an M-1 champion and has won NAGA grappling tournaments. He’s had 4 fights in the UFC and gone 3-1, and is riding a streak of 2 wins (both by knockout). His 23 pro wins have an impressive 91.30% finish rate. He looked good in all of his UFC fights so far, and looked great in his last 2 which he won by finish. He really is the complete package with excellent striking, takedown ability, and most importantly finishing skills. He’s got that tough Russian grit that I would never consider betting against. Despite his grappling credentials, he was able to shake off the clinch attempts of Marcin Bandel and finished Bandel with essentially one punch. In his last fight, he dominated on the feet. He knocked down Christodoulou and made him stand back up, then ragdolled him back to the ground with a throw, but made him stand back up again. It was almost as if his grappling instincts were kicking in, but made a mental effort to keep the fight striking. It was a thorough domination.

Alan Patrick is a BJJ black belt and is riding a 2 win streak of his own, putting him at 2-0 in the UFC and undefeated 12-0 professionally. He’s also one of the biggest fighters in the division. He looked unimpressive to me in his last outing, which was a decision win over John Makdessi. Patrick was constantly chasing clinches and takedowns, which was the correct move against a good striker in John Makdessi. He did show a good ability to setup his takedowns with strikes. He was able to land strikes and follow up takedowns, and also feint strikes and immediately change levels on Makdessi.

I’m not sure what to make of this fight. Patrick has a grappling advantage over most opponents, notably Makdessi, but I’m not sure the advantage is big over Taisumov, as he’s won several BJJ tournaments of his own. Patrick is a flashy striker, but Taisumov is clearly the more competent and more powerful striker. I’ll lean to the favorite.

My Pick: Mairbek Taisumov (decision)

Makwan Amirkhani v. Masio Fullen

Masio Fullen is a Mexican fighting overseas in Germany, but it really shows where the UFC thinks he’s at considering the last card (UFC 187) was a big card in Mexico City. He is coming off a split decision win to Alex Torres in his UFC debut. It was a close fight, but I would have given the nod to Torres for control in a close match. He has a modest record of 10-4 with an 80% finish rate. He is a Taekwondo fighter and has won championships in Mexico.

Makwan Amirkhani is the star of this fight. The Finland native entered the UFC with a 10-2 pro record and improved to 11-2 with an 8 second TKO win in his UFC debut. When ref cued them to fight, Amirkhani charged forward immediately with a flying knee, knocking Ogle senseless and Amirkhani quickly finished with another 3 or 4 punches.

Amirkhani is going to win this fight. His amazing UFC debut wasn’t a fluke- this kid is the real deal. I’m not picking him to win by TKO this time though, I’m going with his roots. Prior to his TKO win in the UFC, all 8 of his previous pro wins came by submission.Brabo Chokes, Rear Naked Chokes, Guillotine Chokes, Triangle Chokes… this kid can do them all.

My Pick: Makwan Amirkhani (Submission)

Nick Hein v. Lukasz Sajewski

Nick Hein, a German native, is making his 3rd UFC appearance after going 1-1 with a decision win in his debut to Drew Dober, and a decision loss in his last outing to James Vick. Alot of people are high on Nick Hein, but I’m not really one of them. He came into the UFC on a tear but the rise in competition has shown what he’s made of. A win over Drew Dober isn’t overly impressive as he’s struggled himself in the UFC. The striking against Dober was evenly matched and Hein won the fight with his wrestling. His wrestling didn’t hold up to James Vick and he was no match on the feet against the big guy. Vick has looked good while compiling his 4-0 record, so the loss comes at a slight discount.

Lukasz Sajewski, native to neighboring country Poland, is making his debut in this fight. “The Wookie” is 13-0 professionally, and I don’t see why he can’t win here. The Shooto fighter is undefeated still, and 7 of his 13 wins came by submission.

I think Hein’s greatest asset is his wrestling, which could be negated in this fight. I think The Wookie will be the one looking to make this a grappling match, not Hein. Hein’s not an explosive fighter, with 6 of his 11 wins going to decision. In fact, 5 of his last 6 wins went to decision.

My Pick: Lukasz Sajewski (Submission)

Peter Sobotta v. Steven Kennedy

Sobotta is a Polish fighter now located in Germany. He’s coming off a win in his last fight, which was his first fight back in the UFC after being cut and resigned. While away from the UFC, he accumulated 5 wins all by submission. More specifically, all 5 came by Rear Naked Choke. His last UFC outing came by decision, which highlights the difference in competition. He floundered in his first stint in the UFC, earning 3 decision losses and being cut. Sobotta is a BJJ black belt, as evidenced by his submission skills.

Steven Kennedy is also a BJJ black belt. To go with that, he’s a 2nd degree black belt in Judo and a black belt in karate. On paper, he’s got much stronger credentials. He’s 22-6 in his pro career, and this is his UFC debut. He’s riding a 7 fight win streak, and has 5 finishes on this 7 wins (4 submissions, 1 TKO & 2 decisions).

I’m so pumped for this fight, as BJJ is my thing. I think Vegas horrendously screwed up this line. I plan to take full advantage and will be picking Kennedy in a combination of straight bet, prop bet, and will include him on a few parlays.

My Pick: Steven Kennedy (Submission)

Dennis Siver v. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Dennis Siver is coming off a loss to Conor McGregor in his last outing. He’s the favorite in this fight, but I again believe that Vegas got this one wrong. Let’s analyze his last 4 fights, starting with his loss to Cub Swanson. Not much shame in that, and at least he made it to the 3rd round with Swanson while Swanson was at his peak. He followed that loss up with a win over Manny Gamburyan, but that was overturned when he failed a drug test- which he blamed on “a new trainer.” He then came out and won against Charles Rosa, which is a little bit impressive to me, but Rosa is still maturing as a fighter. He then lost to McGregor, which most everybody has probably seen.

Tatsuya Kawajiri is Shooto fighter from Japan with a 33-8 pro record. He’s coming off a decision loss to Clay Guida in his last outing, which followed his Submission win over Sean Soriano in his UFC debut. Despite only having 2 fights in the UFC, this guy is a veteran and a legit threat to Siver. He was riding a 6 fight win streak (1 UFC) prior to his last outing. In that 6 win stretch, he finished 5 fights including 4 submissions, 1 TKO & 1 Decision). That includes a Triangle Choke, 2 Arm-Triangle Chokes, and 1 Rear Naked Choke. This guy’s submission skills are very, very good.

I’m taking the undervalued Kawajiiri. In my opinion, he should be the favorite in this fight given Siver’s less than stellar recent record. I believe Siver is being given too much credit here, and his latest loss is being discounted because it was against Conor McGregor.

My Pick: Tatsuya Kawajiri (Submission)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk v. Jessica Penne

I’m on Joanna Jerkadick because she’s the 2nd best woman fighting in the UFC and is a multiple time world champion. Her destruction of Carla Esparza quickly became a brutal joke that could have been stopped really at any time due to the one-sidedness of the “fight”. In theory, Penne's standing game is far better than Esparza's so she wouldn't have as much trouble taking down Joanna. But I still don't think it's going to be enough. Not even close to enough. Nothing else needs to be said here.

My Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (TKO)