UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 76-127 +25.69 units

Some really fun fights this past weekend

Should be a solid fight night this coming weekend 

GL ALL 

Not sure why this thread double posted 

Maximov vs Petroski 

Opening fight of the night. Two guys who are 2-0 since joining the UFC. Maximov won both his fights VIA decision. He has solid grappling and that is always his strength in all of his fights. His striking is raw and it isn't a huge threat at this point in his career. He does a good job at sticking too his strength's which is always a good thing in a fighter if your looking too bet on him. Maximov fights under the Diaz umbrella which I mentioned the last time we broke him down, so you know he is getting good looks in training. In comes Petroski, who won both of his UFC fights VIA stoppage. He is a wrestler who fights with a high tempo and aggressive style. He uses his big power shots too set up his take downs, and when he can set up those take downs he has a lot of success. He has issues when he isn't able too secure take downs, and he starts too show his weaknesses. Maximov is sitting at -400 which in my opinion is very wide. I will most likely pass on this fight and see how these fighter's match up against one another. 

Taira vs Candelario 

This is a re booked fight from 2 weeks ago. Candelario pulled out with an undisclosed illness on the day of the fight. Taira is making his UFC debut. He is a solid prospect who is 10-0 in his short career, 8 of those wins VIA stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking & good grappling. He is a patient striker who likes too pick his shots, and if he gets you hurt he does a good job at capitalizing on his opportunities. His take down attempts are average, but if he feels he has an opportunity he will relentlessly attack the take down until he secures it, and if he gets you down he is very dangerous. Candelario also making his official UFC debut. He lost on the contender series last summer VIA decision. He has a well rounded skill set overall. He has solid striking, decent BJJ & his toughness is for sure an asset. He isn’t afraid to make a fight ugly, and that seems to be when he’s at his best. Candelario did have a 4 year layoff that stemmed from 2017 to 2021 so that is concerning, but he’s fought twice since, going 1-1 in those fights. Originally I liked Candelario too make this fight ugly & dirty and secure a victory, but since I have shifted my position too Taira. I think the technique of Taira will be the difference maker, and Taira being the much more dangerous fighter has me leaning towards backing him in this fight. I will wait until later in the week and decide how I back Taira in this fight. 

Jandiroba vs Hill 

First ladies fight of the night. Jandiroba is 3-3 since joining the UFC, all 3 of her losses are against stiff competition. Her striking isn't technical, but she does a good job at using her wild looping shots too set up her take downs. If she manages too get on top of her opponent, she is dangerous and can finish her opponent. I think if she is able too get Hill too the ground she will find success, but if she is forced too stay on the feet, she could find it hard scoring against Hill, who tends too frustrate her opponent. Hill is 0-2 in her last 2. She is a volume based fighter who likes to use her speed and movement too frustrate and outwork her opponent. She has good fight IQ with a ton of experience and that is always an asset when she fights. Her take down defense is solid, and that could very well be the X factor in this match up. I think Hill will look too stick & move and frustrate Jandiroba and grind out an ugly win in this fight. I lean Hill at +140 in this fight. 

Johnson vs Patrick 

Two guys returning after year+ long layoffs. Johnson is 0-4 in his last 4 & his last win came back in 2018. He has fought the very best fighters in his career, and experience will for sure be on his side. He is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking and good movement in the Octagon. He has shown too be vulnerable to the take down, so against a grapple heavy opponent, that could be an issue. He has solid kicks and his footwork and movement helps him manage his range, which could help him in this fight. Patrick like Johnson hasn't won since 2018. He is a grappler, who uses forward pressure and big power shots too close distance and engage in grappling. He is 100% committed at trying to get the fight too the ground, the problem is at this point in his career, cardio and technique has failed him. He has a negative striking differential which is concerning for an aging and fading fighter. As long as Johnson can survive the first few minutes, I think Patrick will fade and Johnson should be able too take over the fight and secure a victory. I like Johnson on the ML, but I will wait until later in the week and make a final decision. 

Araujo vs Lee

This should be a close fight. Araujo lost a decision last time out. She has solid grappling with solid striking. She does mix in kicks nicely which is a nice part of her offence. She fights with an aggressive and high pressure style & is always looking for a finish if the opportunity presents itself.   Her cardio later in fights tends too fade since she fights with such a high motor, and she does get hit a lot, which could be a problem against a solid striker like Lee. In comes Andrea Lee who is riding a 2 fight stoppage win streak. She is a good striker with nice kicks and combinations. She does have improved grappling and has shown some nice take downs in her last couple fights. Her weakness has been been her take down defense, which I fully expect too be the X factor in this fight. Prior to her 2 fight win streak, she lost 3 in a row. In those fights it was her take down defense that lost her those decision, so it is concerning. I expect Lee to have improved her take down defense, and her striking & kicks will help maintain distance and allow Lee too control the fight for long periods. I really like Lee in this match up too secure the victory and I will be betting her on the ML. 

Hadley vs Nascimento 

This should be a fun fight. Hadley making his official UFC debut after winning on the contender series. He did miss weight in that fight. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has good striking with solid timing in his shots & nice footwork. He does have solid take down entries, and is very aggressive on the mat and will hunt for submissions and look too inflict damage. He does fight with high pace and his cardio has seemed too support that style in his young career. Nascimento lost his UFC debut back in October of last year. He is a solid striker with a wild variety of strikes & has dangerous grappling. He isn't scared too get in a brawl and make a fight dirty. He does have solid BJJ and is comfortable working from his back. The problem with that, is he can find himself getting controlled for long periods of time and getting behind on the scorecards. I think both of these guys are dangerous, and we could see some fireworks in this match up. I lean this fight too end inside distance at +105. I will wait until later in the week and make a final decision on this fight.  

Camacho vs Torres 

The return of Frank Camacho. After a 2 year layoff, Camacho makes his UFC return. He is 1-4 in his last 5 and looks too start a new chapter here. He has solid grappling with very heavy top pressure if he gets on top. He prefers to look for ground and pound over submissions, but he is very capable of finishing his opponent in just about any fashion. His striking is average, but he does leave himself open and gets hit with 7 significant strikes per 1 minute, which is very concerning. His take down defense is solid & he is tough with a good amount of experience and fight IQ. Torres is making his official UFC debut. He is a well rounded fighter. He has solid striking with decent power, but isn't the most technical striker. He has nice clinch work and has nice knees and elbows in close range. He does a good job at mixing things up with kicks and his grappling is a threat if he feels he has the advantage in that area. I expect Camacho too be rejuvenated after his long layoff, and he should be the more physical and more well rounded fighter in this fight. I lean Camacho as of right now as the slight underdog, but a lot of uncertainty around his layoff has me second guessing myself. I will wait until later in the week too make my final decision. 

Chookagian vs Ribas 

This should be a good fight. Chookagian comes into this fight on a 3 fight winning streak, all wins by decision. Chookagian is a well rounded fighter, who is always prepared and understands match ups and styles. She fights to her strength and will fight a style that makes her opponent struggle and frustrate them. She is a busy fighter who likes to use volume as an asset. She isn't very dangerous in terms of finishing ability, but her experience and fight IQ is 100% her best quality. Ribas is 4-1 in her last 5. She is coming up from 115 and is now fighting at 125. She is a grappler with very much improved striking. She has a very impressive 5-2 striking differential. She does have solid enough take downs, and when she is on the ground, she is very capable and can threaten from all sorts of positions. Her take down defense is solid, and she will most likely need that in this fight. At first glance I liked Chookagian as the more physical and complete fighter, but Ribas is much more dangerous and she has me second guessing myself here. As of right now I will pass on this fight, but I will continue to monitor it and see if I can find an edge closer too the weekend. 

Grant vs Smolka 

This should be another solid fight. Grant is on a 2 fight skid, but both those losses were decisions, and both were against really tough opponents. Grant is a grappler, but has developed a solid striking game and has turned too that more often then his grappling. He has legitimate power in his hands and is always live for a KO. He does have nice kicks, and uses them well too manage his distance. He seems to get hurt/rocked in his fights, but he does a good job at staying composed and getting himself back into the fight, while his opponent gasses out chasing the finish. In comes Smolka who suffered his first KO loss back in December of last year. He is a striker who uses his volume and footwork as an asset. He likes too use that movement too pressure his opponent and stay in their face. He does average just under 2 take downs per fight, so that is something too watch for against a very dangerous Grant. I think Smolka will be aware of the power of Grant, especially after getting KOd last time out, so I would anticipate he comes in with a more conservative and grapple heavy game plan and try and neutralize Grant early. I lean over 1.5 rounds in this fight at -120. 

Spann vs Cutelaba 

Co main event, and this should have fireworks. Spann is 3-2 in his last 5 fights. He is very big for the division and has a lot of power as you would expect. The problem with him is his attacks are very telegraphed and is a lot slower then his opponent. This typically leaves him exposed and he absorbs a lot of damage because of it. He also has grappling wholes and is open too get taken down, and against Cutelaba that could be an issue early & often. He does have that 1 punch power, so if Cutelaba decides too make this a boxing match, he could have success early in the fight when he is fresh. In comes Cutelaba who is coming off that impressive victory back in September. He is a power striker, but his strength is his grappling and that was on display in his last 2 fights. He secured 8 take downs in his last fight, and 9 in his fight before that. He has gotten himself into trouble when he decides too brawl with his opponent, and that could be a real issue in this fight against the powerful Ryan Spann. He tends too get wild and sloppy when he gets comfortable striking, and that will be a huge issue in this fight. I think Cutelaba will be fully aware of how dangerous Spann is, and he will come in with a grapple heavy game plan. If Spann can defend the take downs early, this could turn into a slug fest which could favor Spann. I lean Cutelaba, as I think his take downs should be enough, but I don't think I'm ready too lay the -225, and the inside distance is juiced at -150 so as of right now, I will pass unless I see something later in the week. 

Blachowicz vs Rakic 

Main event. This should be a close & contested fight. Blachowicz is 6 months removed from his title defense loss last year. He is solid striker with solid power in his hands. He does have solid wrestling & does a good job at mixing that into his game plans. He has a ton of experience and has fought some of the very best fighters in his UFC career. He tends too have more success when he is the bigger and more physical fighter, but in this match up that might not be the case, so it will be interesting too see how he matches up with Rakic. In comes Rakic who is 4-1 in his last 5 fights. He is making his return after a year layoff. He is a creative and dynamic fighter. He is big for the division and uses his size well too manage his distance. He has nice low/high kicks and does a good job at mixing those kicks into his attack. His take down defense is just under 90% and that surely will be tested in this fight. He is a capable wrestler if he needs it, but he prefers too sit on the outside and out work his opponent and use his jab and kicks too inflict damage and score points. I think the size and range could give Blachowicz issues in this fight, but Blachowicz experience and toughness has me undecided on this fight as of right now. I do like the over 3.5 rounds at -120, but I will wait until later in the week and make my final decision on this fight. 

Starting too like Ribas more & more in this spot.

The more dangerous fighter I think will have Chookagian finding herself very unsettled and indecisive in this fight. I will most likely play Ribas ML & maybe a small position on inside the distance. I will make a final decision after weigh ins 

I'm still flip flopping on some of these fights. Sorry for the indecisive write ups this week. I will have a better idea after weigh ins and will have final picks Saturday morning  

GL this weekend paletta!

@The_Fist

Looks like 1 fighter missed weight. 

Candelario missed by 0.5 pounds, fight should still be on, unless he pulls out again. 

Apparently Candelario was given extra time and made weight. 

This fight was cancelled two weeks ago, and seems too have more issues again this week 

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 76-127 +25.69 units
how do we read your stats …looks pretty bad if im reading it right ..2021 73 wins 127 losees at +9.13 units makes no sense …ytd even worse 

Joe 

dust  The record is how many wins/losses I have. The units indicate how much I'm up/down on the year. I play mostly + money bets, and a lot of my bets are different unit size. Therefore the losing record doesn't indicate how much I'm up on the year or last year. I hope that answers your question. 

Wow u must be on alot of heavy underdogs

@dustmiester

It isn't just the heavy underdogs, its also the unit size. My picks vary from 0.25 units to 10 units. 

I post my picks and units every week and recap at the end of the event  

Prelim picks, 

Petroski ML +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.5 units 

Taira ML -240 - 10 units to win 4.17 units 

Johnson ML -150 - 2.5 units to win 1.67 units 

Lee ML -125  - 3 units to win 2.40 units