Mazo vs Maverick
Opening fight of the night. Both fighters are on 2 fight skids & will look to get back on track. Although they are both on 2 fight losing streaks, both ladies losing streaks are a very different. Mazo was outclassed in both her losses. Maverick was very competitive in both her losses & could have easily won the fight against Barber, hence why she is a -350 favorite in this fight. Mazo is a kick boxer with solid striking. Her greatest asset is her kicks and they are very powerful. She likes too fight at range, and she uses her kicks well in order too manage that range. She will need that in this fight in order too keep Maverick off her in order too have a chance in this fight. Maverick is still only 24 years old, and is still a very good prospect in the UFC. She is a technical striker with good forward pressure. She also has solid take downs. She uses her raw strength too control her opponent in the clinch and does solid work against the cage. Maverick is the clear pick in my opinion. I will most likely have her in a parlay, and might add an inside distance bet at +285. I will wait until later in the week for a final decision.
Aldrich vs Robertson
Back to back ladies fight's to open the weekend. This should be an interesting match up. Normally both these ladies like too work the fight too the ground, so it will be interesting too see who gets the better of the grappling early. Aldrich is on a 2 fight winning streak. She is an OK striker, but prefers to get top pressure and work from there. It will be interesting to see how she does against the solid wrestler Robertson, and who wins those exchanges early. Robertson won her last fight VIA submission back in December. She is a well rounded fighter who fights within her strengths, and that has served her well. Her losses are against some stiff competition. I give the wrestling advantage too Robertson in this match up, and I think the grinding style of Robertson will be enough to nullify and wear down Aldrich as the fight goes on. I lean Robertson in this fight.
Nchukwi vs Murzakanov
This is actually the opening fight, not the ladies mentioned above. Nchukwi enters this fight with a 2-1 record since joining the UFC. He is a good technical striker with solid power in his hands. He has shown the ability in his short career that he is able to fight to a decision, which is always good in an inexperienced fighter. One negative about him is he does have tendencies to be a little conservative and selective with his striking, which alloys his opponent too dictate the fight. He is at his best when he is active and controlling the pace and octagon. Murzakanov is making his official UFC debut. He is a solid striker with fast hands and legit power. He does have wrestling at his disposal, but has shown he isn't scared to lean on his power as his main asset. In this match up I think it would be wise too neutralize Nchukwi striking, and revert to his wrestling a bit more. If he does that early and has Nchukwi thinking about the take down, I think he will have the upper hand in this match up. I lean Murzakanov in this fight, but I will wait and see what the odds look like later in the week.
Cannetti vs Moutinho
Odd fight here. Everyone will remember Moutinho when he made his short notice debut against O'Malley. He got destroyed in that fight. One thing he showed was his toughness, but that was about it. Style wise he is a striker. He does have wrestling in his bag of tricks, but tends to ignore it. Cannetti is the older fighter & he's on a 3 fight losing streak. He is clearly the more experienced fighter. He is also a striker with good movement and speed for his age. His main asset would be his volume of strikes and kicks. I Actually thought Cannetti would open as the slight favorite in this fight, so at +125 I think he holds some value. Maybe the odds makers know something we don't but I think Canetti is the better fighter in all areas. I will most likely take him on the ML.
Lungiambula vs Brundage
Both fighters coming off decision losses. Lungiambula is Short for the division, but makes up for it with his power & speed. He is a well rounded fighter & has shown solid grappling in a few of his fights. He is a low volume striker so that is always a concern, especially against a wrestler like Brundage. In comes Brundage who is looking for his first UFC win. He lost his short notice debut back in September. He is a solid wrestler who likes to use his big shots too set up take down attempts. He will use his forward pressure and power shots too keep his opponent backing up which sets up his take down attempts nicely. If he can do that early in this fight, I think he will have the upper hand in this fight & should have success in neutralizing the power of Lungiambula. I lean Brundage at +110.
Jackson vs Kirk
Interesting fight here. Jackson is coming off a bloody decision victory back in October. He is a solid grappler who likes too grind out wins. He is relentless in his pressure and is always looking to take advantage of his opponents mistakes. One of his best assets is his IQ and ability to make fighters pay for their mistakes. He isn't great anywhere but is solid everywhere, and his grit makes up for his shortfalls. Kirk won his UFC debut & will look too keep things rolling. He like Jackson is a solid grappler with solid take downs. His striking is OK and has decent power in his hands. In this fight I think he has the striking advantage so I think if he can keep this fight on the feet he gets the job done. One issue I have noticed with him is his cardio. He seems too fade as the fight goes on, and against someone with the non stop motor of Jackson that could be an issue. I lean Jackson with the more experience and grit. I will wait and see if I can find Jackson at + money.
Jones vs Basharat
This should be a fun fight. Basharat making his official UFC debut. He is undefeated in his short career. He is a very good grappler, offensively and defensively. His striking is also solid and he uses his movement very well, bouncing in and out of the pocket and staying at range. Once he gets the fight to the ground he is very dangerous with his submission attempts & heavy ground & pound. Jones is 1-1-1 since joining the UFC. He is an explosive striker with real power. He isn't the most technical striker, but makes up for it with his pure power. He is more then capable on the ground if that is where the fight ends up, but he has relied on his striking more often since joining the UFC. I lean Basharat in this fight, but I don't know exactly how I will back him just yet.
Semelsberger vs Fletcher
Prelim fight of the night. Fletcher is a contender series prospect who won in impressive fashion back in August. Fletcher is a solid wrestler. He does a great job timing his take down attempts. That could be a good thing for him against a very aggressive striker in Semelsberger. Once he gets on top he has heavy top pressure and does a good job in controlling his opponent. His last 5 fights all ended in the first round, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the fight if Semelsberger can get out of the 1st round. Will he fade and gas out? That is something to take in consideration. In comes Semelsberger. He is 3-1 since joining the UFC. He is an aggressive striker who likes too march forward and stay in the face of his opponent. He does have solid kicks and mixes in body shots nicely. He relies on his tempo and grit to wear down his opponent, which could play a factor against the inexperienced Fletcher. At first glance I loved the +225 ML on Fletcher, But I can see how Semelsberger can drag the fight on and steal the fight in the 2nd/3rd round. No way I'm backing Semelsberger here, now I just have too decide if I want too back the inexperienced but more talented Fletcher.
Pereira vs Silva
This should have fireworks. Two fighters who are very explosive and both riding solid winning streaks. Silva hasn't lost since 2016. He did have a 3 year layoff with a PED suspension, but returned in 2021 with a bang. He is 3-0 since joining the UFC, all 3 wins VIA stoppage. He is a good striker with legit power. He does have solid BJJ, but his strength is his striking & that is normally what he leans on. He did show the ability too fight late into a fight. He was down on the score cards against Andrew Sanchez back in October, but got the late KO in round 3, so he is never out of a fight. In comes Pereira. The highly decorated kick boxer. Known for knocking out Adesanya. He is a legit kick boxer with a short MMA resume. He is an elite striker with good kicks and solid body work. He won his UFC debut a few months ago, and showed just how dangerous he is. His one question mark was and still is his take down defense & ability too grapple. He showed in his debut he could fight back to his feet, but that wasn't enough I don't believe too disregard that question. I wan't too take Silva on the ML as I think he can use his own grappling too negate some of the danger of Pereira, but Silva's willingness too strike has me leaning towards passing on this fight. I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision.
Dober vs Mckinney
Another great fight. Mckinney making a quick turnaround after fighting just a couple weeks ago. He opened the week around +250 but since has dropped to +165. He is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins by stoppage. He is a solid striker but even better wrestler. He is a solid prospect with a very well rounded skill set. He likes to strike at range, and does a good job managing that range & eventually works in some solid take downs. One thing that hasn't been tested is Mckinney's cardio. If Dober can drag the fight on, how will Mckinney hold up? I think that is a big question mark, and I assume some of the reason he is the underdog in this fight. Dober is 0-2 in his last two fights, but both those fights were against top talent in the weight class. He is a very solid striker who is not afraid too make a fight dirty and brawl himself to a victory. That might be what he needs in this match up. In his last fight against Riddell, he was taken down 5 times, so he should be aware of the wrestling of Mckinney and be ready too defend some take downs early & often. If he can defend those take downs, I think he will have success, but easier said then done. At the current odds I like Mckinney's upside with his striking & wrestling combination, but this is not an easy fight for the streaking Mckinney.
Rountree vs Roberson
Two guys who both need victories. Roberson is 0-2 in his last 2, both losses VIA submission. He is a solid fighter with a well rounded skillset. Yes, he's coming off 2 losses in a row, but he has fought stiff competition. He is a solid striker who can grapple and has decent offensive wrestling. He has solid experience & I think is the more complete fighter by a marginable amount in this fight. Rountree is 2-3 in his last 5. He is a powerful striker, who can put anyone out any given night. He has good speed for his size and is at his best when he can dictate the pace and control the octagon. He has been very inconsistent over the past 5 years, so who knows which fighter shows up. I like Roberson to get back on track here as the slight favorite, as I think he has more tools at his disposal in this fight.
Caceres vs Yusuff
This is a good test for both fighters. Caceres is a solid veteran who has found himself on a 5 fight winning streak. He will look too make it 6, but will have his hands full. He is a well rounded fighter with karate style striking who likes to bounce around and fight at range. He does have solid grappling and might need that in this fight. He is a durable fighter, and hasn't been KOd since 2015. In comes Yusuff. 4-1 since joining the UFC. He is a solid prospect who needs a victory in order to propel himself into the mix in the division. He is a creative striker with speed and legit power in his hands. He is very athletic and will mix in kicks nicely. Cardio was a question mark early in his career, but 3 of his last 4 fights have resulted in decisions, and his cardio held up in those fights. His take down defense is solid, so I anticipate this being more of a kick boxing match. I give Yusuff the clear advantage in the striking, but at -250 don't feel comfortable enough backing him. I will most likely pass, unless I see a prop I like later in the week.
Moraes vs Yadong
Co main event. Crazy to think Yadong is still only 24 years old. He is 2-0 in his last 2 fights. He is a technical striker who throws with intent. He is very athletic and has good speed & footwork. He is vulnerable to the take down, but does a good job at working back to his feet. He is hittable, so that is concerning in this fight against the dangerous Moraes. In comes Moraes. 0-3 in his last 3, all losses coming by stoppage. In that span he has fought some really good fighters. He is a very good striker with lethal kicks. In order too have a chance in this fight, he needs too dictate the pace early and control the center of the Octagon. If he allows Yadong too march forward & control the pace, it will not bode well for Moraes chances. Like the last fight, I lean the favorite in Yadong, but Moraes skillset and experience has me rethinking this fight.
Prelim card,
Cannetti ML +125 - 1.5 units to win 1.88 units
Brundage ML +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units
Jackson wins inside distance +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.50 units
Fletcher ML +170 - 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Fletcher/ Semelsberger over 1.5 rounds -150 - 2.5 units to win 1.67 units
FULL CARD - 
Prelim card,
Cannetti ML +125 - 1.5 units to win 1.88 units
Brundage ML +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units
Jackson wins inside distance +300 - 0.5 units to win 1.50 units
Fletcher ML +170 - 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Fletcher/ Semelsberger over 1.5 rounds -150 - 2.5 units to win 1.67 units
Main card picks,
Mckinney ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units
Roberson ML -138 - 2 units to win 1.45 units
Caceres by submission +900 - 0.25 units to win 2.25 units
Parlay,
Maverick ML/Basharat ML/Ankalaev ML +138 - 2 units to win 2.78 units
GL ALL 
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
