Lots of good free fights on this card. I'll be posting my leans throughout the week. I will start with just one:
Edson Barboza -145 over Bobby Green This should be a good fight. Bobby wins fights by staying in a range that he can get into and out of while landing strikes and avoiding counters. The problem is that Edson's best strikes are longer than any strikes Bobby can throw - especially his leg kicks. Edson also doesn't depend on a lot of straight strikes that Bobby is a master at rolling under and parrying. I'm going to be watching this line as the week moves on.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
18-12 +10.1 posted
Lots of good free fights on this card. I'll be posting my leans throughout the week. I will start with just one:
Edson Barboza -145 over Bobby Green This should be a good fight. Bobby wins fights by staying in a range that he can get into and out of while landing strikes and avoiding counters. The problem is that Edson's best strikes are longer than any strikes Bobby can throw - especially his leg kicks. Edson also doesn't depend on a lot of straight strikes that Bobby is a master at rolling under and parrying. I'm going to be watching this line as the week moves on.
It's a timing and info thing. I'd rather wait until the very last minute before placing a bet so I can hear/read all the info possible. But I will watch the line to try to time it on a good spot. The info and the line will dictate the size of the bet and whether I pass/play. Sometimes it works out, sometimes not.
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Quote Originally Posted by whipton:
why watch the line ?
It's a timing and info thing. I'd rather wait until the very last minute before placing a bet so I can hear/read all the info possible. But I will watch the line to try to time it on a good spot. The info and the line will dictate the size of the bet and whether I pass/play. Sometimes it works out, sometimes not.
the line shouldn't dictate your pick. neither should "inside' info. everybody says they're coming off a good camp.
I respectfully disagree.
First, it doesn't dictate the side I'm on. My lean and thoughts on the fight are if the fight happened without any distraction or outside influence. It only dictates the level of my play between 0-2 units. My leans are based on the fighter's abilities and tendencies from my own analysis.
Second, it's almost never inside info or any secret, but a lot can happen between the opening line and the fight. Injuries happen, guys get sick and guys talk about moving camps that I had no idea about. It's part of the promotion for these guys to get out there and answer question and reveal info about themselves to the media you hadn't heard about since they fought last.
Here's some examples: -- Nam Phan said on a podcast last week that he didn't know who Mike Richman was before signing and if he had known, he probably wouldn't have signed -- Gastelum moved from his home camp in Yuma, AZ with no other notable pros, to Alliance -- Guillard missed weight, and had to pay 50% of his purse to Gaethje. Guillard used to train with Grudge (Geathje's camp) and Trevor Wittman(his trainer) but he quit because of the amount of money Trevor wanted as a training fee. All on a podcast. -- Bermudez was definitely hoping for a bigger name than Lamas - preferred McGregor or Cub.
All important to me.
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Quote Originally Posted by whipton:
the line shouldn't dictate your pick. neither should "inside' info. everybody says they're coming off a good camp.
I respectfully disagree.
First, it doesn't dictate the side I'm on. My lean and thoughts on the fight are if the fight happened without any distraction or outside influence. It only dictates the level of my play between 0-2 units. My leans are based on the fighter's abilities and tendencies from my own analysis.
Second, it's almost never inside info or any secret, but a lot can happen between the opening line and the fight. Injuries happen, guys get sick and guys talk about moving camps that I had no idea about. It's part of the promotion for these guys to get out there and answer question and reveal info about themselves to the media you hadn't heard about since they fought last.
Here's some examples: -- Nam Phan said on a podcast last week that he didn't know who Mike Richman was before signing and if he had known, he probably wouldn't have signed -- Gastelum moved from his home camp in Yuma, AZ with no other notable pros, to Alliance -- Guillard missed weight, and had to pay 50% of his purse to Gaethje. Guillard used to train with Grudge (Geathje's camp) and Trevor Wittman(his trainer) but he quit because of the amount of money Trevor wanted as a training fee. All on a podcast. -- Bermudez was definitely hoping for a bigger name than Lamas - preferred McGregor or Cub.
You too man. It may not matter a damn bit and I've had info in the past lead me in the wrong direction too, but I try to use what I can. That's just me.
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You too man. It may not matter a damn bit and I've had info in the past lead me in the wrong direction too, but I try to use what I can. That's just me.
You too man. It may not matter a damn bit and I've had info in the past lead me in the wrong direction too, but I try to use what I can. That's just me.
been there many times myself.
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Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:
You too man. It may not matter a damn bit and I've had info in the past lead me in the wrong direction too, but I try to use what I can. That's just me.
Chico Camus +190 over Brad Pickett Pickett is one of those guys that fought close to the top at one weight, dropped weights and is looking for a new beginning. The problem is he is 36 and he wasn't that fast to begin with, so the move from bantam to fly hasn't paid many dividends. In addition to that, Chico doesn't lose brawls, which this will likely become. He loses wrestling matches, which he's good enough to avoid and Brad isn't good enough to force.
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Next lean:
Chico Camus +190 over Brad Pickett Pickett is one of those guys that fought close to the top at one weight, dropped weights and is looking for a new beginning. The problem is he is 36 and he wasn't that fast to begin with, so the move from bantam to fly hasn't paid many dividends. In addition to that, Chico doesn't lose brawls, which this will likely become. He loses wrestling matches, which he's good enough to avoid and Brad isn't good enough to force.
I actually can't get a great read on that fight. Frankie by decision will probably be about even money, and I'll probably be on the opposite prop (not Frankie by decision) for a small bet. I think both guys want to win emphatically to put their name in the hat over Conor and if it's a decision, I think it will be a close one 3-2 rounds for either guy. Therefore, I think having even money on a coin flip decision + either guy finishing in 25 minutes is about as good as bet as I see at around +100, but we'll see what my book lays on the prop price.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:
Wow Cub plus 180, tasty!!
I actually can't get a great read on that fight. Frankie by decision will probably be about even money, and I'll probably be on the opposite prop (not Frankie by decision) for a small bet. I think both guys want to win emphatically to put their name in the hat over Conor and if it's a decision, I think it will be a close one 3-2 rounds for either guy. Therefore, I think having even money on a coin flip decision + either guy finishing in 25 minutes is about as good as bet as I see at around +100, but we'll see what my book lays on the prop price.
Next lean: Josh Copeland +165 over Magomedov Copeland is one of those big, ugly lineman looking guys that hits hard and never stops coming forward. Magomedov is more of a technical striker who Copeland will overwhelm and overpower.
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Next lean: Josh Copeland +165 over Magomedov Copeland is one of those big, ugly lineman looking guys that hits hard and never stops coming forward. Magomedov is more of a technical striker who Copeland will overwhelm and overpower.
Next one: Olienik/Rosholt don't start round 3 (prop line not set) This is a fight where OO has to catch the big American quickly with a submission or Rosholt will just be too much for him to handle and will pound him out before the start of the 3rd.
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Next one: Olienik/Rosholt don't start round 3 (prop line not set) This is a fight where OO has to catch the big American quickly with a submission or Rosholt will just be too much for him to handle and will pound him out before the start of the 3rd.
And lastly: Barnatt (-325) + Vick (-215) parlay Both guys are such long, technical strikers with slick BJJ games. I think they'll both stick and even toy with their opponents at time at range.
If there are any more, I'll post up, but that's probably about it for this event. Good luck!
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And lastly: Barnatt (-325) + Vick (-215) parlay Both guys are such long, technical strikers with slick BJJ games. I think they'll both stick and even toy with their opponents at time at range.
If there are any more, I'll post up, but that's probably about it for this event. Good luck!
Next lean: Josh Copeland +165 over MagomedovCopeland is one of those big, ugly lineman looking guys that hits hard and never stops coming forward. Magomedov is more of a technical striker who Copeland will overwhelm and overpower.
Might tail you on this lean. Don't know much about either guy. I see some dogs barking though.
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Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:
Next lean: Josh Copeland +165 over MagomedovCopeland is one of those big, ugly lineman looking guys that hits hard and never stops coming forward. Magomedov is more of a technical striker who Copeland will overwhelm and overpower.
Might tail you on this lean. Don't know much about either guy. I see some dogs barking though.
I just finished capping the green/barboza fight. and its a tough one.
BARBOZA weakness are:
1-his chin his really weak
2- aldo he has good taked def once he his on the canvas its not that hard holding him there
strength are:
1- good technical striking
2- insane leg kicking power
3- great footwork
Green weakness are
1- technical def, he does dodge well but his hands are so low its only a matter of time for a good striker to capitalize on it.
strength are
1- push the paces, not many fighters like to be pushed around and its make them unconfortable and its shows in their performance
2- octagon control, he controls the octagon very well. and its always score well with the judges
3- good taked def and very good scrambling to get back to his feet if gets taken down
i just cant see a clear winner here, i see both guys winning and losing in their own way,
Barboza use tech striking and footwork to set up green and caught him going forward with spinning heel kick or thai kick
Green push forward and that will make kicking harder for barboza, and he will be hesitant because of green wrestling background. Green has a very high volume striking output and a good chin. i can easily see him getting a dec in this fight. and aldo not a power puncher, Edson weak chin could also be koed.
i was not planning to write so much but i wanted your imput on all this. i don't see a clear favorite in this fight and i hate having lost 2hours and a half for nothing. Because i think you may have missed some things on green
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I just finished capping the green/barboza fight. and its a tough one.
BARBOZA weakness are:
1-his chin his really weak
2- aldo he has good taked def once he his on the canvas its not that hard holding him there
strength are:
1- good technical striking
2- insane leg kicking power
3- great footwork
Green weakness are
1- technical def, he does dodge well but his hands are so low its only a matter of time for a good striker to capitalize on it.
strength are
1- push the paces, not many fighters like to be pushed around and its make them unconfortable and its shows in their performance
2- octagon control, he controls the octagon very well. and its always score well with the judges
3- good taked def and very good scrambling to get back to his feet if gets taken down
i just cant see a clear winner here, i see both guys winning and losing in their own way,
Barboza use tech striking and footwork to set up green and caught him going forward with spinning heel kick or thai kick
Green push forward and that will make kicking harder for barboza, and he will be hesitant because of green wrestling background. Green has a very high volume striking output and a good chin. i can easily see him getting a dec in this fight. and aldo not a power puncher, Edson weak chin could also be koed.
i was not planning to write so much but i wanted your imput on all this. i don't see a clear favorite in this fight and i hate having lost 2hours and a half for nothing. Because i think you may have missed some things on green
That's a good analysis and I agree with most of it. Here's my counters:
1. I think Edson's chin being toast is a bit unfair. He's been dropped a few times against strikers with heavy hands and most times he's recovered and won the fight. 2. Bobby's defensive boxing has done well lately. This was against guys who threw mainly jabs and crosses in their combos and who had a reach disadvantage against him. He is very good at slipping jabs and crosses, but not as good at rolling under hooks or checking kicks, which is Barboza's game. 3. Speaking of checking leg kicks, the best way to slow down a pressure-forward fighter is to brutalize their legs. Barboza is the only ufc fighter to finish 2 fighters by leg kicks. 4. Green averages 1.5 TD attempts per fight with a 37% accuracy. Barboza boasts an 84% TD defense.
I see this as a mainly stand-up fight where Barboza can use his length and leg kicks to keep Green's pressure back with a win by ko or fairly easy decision.
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That's a good analysis and I agree with most of it. Here's my counters:
1. I think Edson's chin being toast is a bit unfair. He's been dropped a few times against strikers with heavy hands and most times he's recovered and won the fight. 2. Bobby's defensive boxing has done well lately. This was against guys who threw mainly jabs and crosses in their combos and who had a reach disadvantage against him. He is very good at slipping jabs and crosses, but not as good at rolling under hooks or checking kicks, which is Barboza's game. 3. Speaking of checking leg kicks, the best way to slow down a pressure-forward fighter is to brutalize their legs. Barboza is the only ufc fighter to finish 2 fighters by leg kicks. 4. Green averages 1.5 TD attempts per fight with a 37% accuracy. Barboza boasts an 84% TD defense.
I see this as a mainly stand-up fight where Barboza can use his length and leg kicks to keep Green's pressure back with a win by ko or fairly easy decision.
Why bring the fight down when he was winning his fight on his feet. And I watched Edson 6 last fight today and he got his bell rung in 1 of the fight , rocked bad in 2 other, and koed in 1 so that's 4 out of 6... not very good, especially for that weight class. and it was not against huge shots. But thanks for the info, like I wanted you gave me an angle I add thought has a factor and its the reach so I will analyse it again with that in mind, thanks.
by the way I wish I could use the retirement has a huge factor but green younger brother add just been killed before his fight with Thomson and he add a short camp but he still won that fight, that's a mentally very strong individual.
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Why bring the fight down when he was winning his fight on his feet. And I watched Edson 6 last fight today and he got his bell rung in 1 of the fight , rocked bad in 2 other, and koed in 1 so that's 4 out of 6... not very good, especially for that weight class. and it was not against huge shots. But thanks for the info, like I wanted you gave me an angle I add thought has a factor and its the reach so I will analyse it again with that in mind, thanks.
by the way I wish I could use the retirement has a huge factor but green younger brother add just been killed before his fight with Thomson and he add a short camp but he still won that fight, that's a mentally very strong individual.
Yeah thank you too man, I appreciate the discussion. I fully expect to be completely wrong on a few picks/leans and maybe this is one of them, but we'll see!
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Yeah thank you too man, I appreciate the discussion. I fully expect to be completely wrong on a few picks/leans and maybe this is one of them, but we'll see!
Why bring the fight down when he was winning his fight on his feet. And I watched Edson 6 last fight today and he got his bell rung in 1 of the fight , rocked bad in 2 other, and koed in 1 so that's 4 out of 6... not very good, especially for that weight class. and it was not against huge shots. But thanks for the info, like I wanted you gave me an angle I add thought has a factor and its the reach so I will analyse it again with that in mind, thanks.
by the way I wish I could use the retirement has a huge factor but green younger brother add just been killed before his fight with Thomson and he add a short camp but he still won that fight, that's a mentally very strong individual.
the chances of green retiring is pretty close to zero. hes an emotional guy with little guidance(at least before he went to diaz camp) and the ufc has treated him pretty badly regarding taking fights on short notice and taking him off a fight card for no reason.
i have no idea how anyone bets on a guy like barboza who essentially gets kod by a jab
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Quote Originally Posted by MMAwizard:
Why bring the fight down when he was winning his fight on his feet. And I watched Edson 6 last fight today and he got his bell rung in 1 of the fight , rocked bad in 2 other, and koed in 1 so that's 4 out of 6... not very good, especially for that weight class. and it was not against huge shots. But thanks for the info, like I wanted you gave me an angle I add thought has a factor and its the reach so I will analyse it again with that in mind, thanks.
by the way I wish I could use the retirement has a huge factor but green younger brother add just been killed before his fight with Thomson and he add a short camp but he still won that fight, that's a mentally very strong individual.
the chances of green retiring is pretty close to zero. hes an emotional guy with little guidance(at least before he went to diaz camp) and the ufc has treated him pretty badly regarding taking fights on short notice and taking him off a fight card for no reason.
i have no idea how anyone bets on a guy like barboza who essentially gets kod by a jab
Alright dudes, here's my final card with my fave to least.
18-12 +10.1 posted
Camus +175 2 to win 3.5 Barnatt + Vick 2 to win 1.9 Barboza -140 1.4 to win 1 Olienik/Rosholt does not go 3 RDS -150 1.5 to win 1 Copeland +170 1 to win 1.7 Not Edgar by decision -140 .7 to win .5
Good luck fellas.
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Alright dudes, here's my final card with my fave to least.
18-12 +10.1 posted
Camus +175 2 to win 3.5 Barnatt + Vick 2 to win 1.9 Barboza -140 1.4 to win 1 Olienik/Rosholt does not go 3 RDS -150 1.5 to win 1 Copeland +170 1 to win 1.7 Not Edgar by decision -140 .7 to win .5
I'm on the opposite of most of your leans but best of luck!
You too. I'm pretty contrarian on this card when I look at the forums and main mma web sites. That could work out and it could not. I'm just hoping for some good fights and we'll see what happens.
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Quote Originally Posted by MR219:
I'm on the opposite of most of your leans but best of luck!
You too. I'm pretty contrarian on this card when I look at the forums and main mma web sites. That could work out and it could not. I'm just hoping for some good fights and we'll see what happens.
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