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UFC FN 78

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Posted: #1
Events 29-5
YTD 203-116(+707.17)
O/U 60-70(+93.09)
 
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Posted: #2
Very thin card after what we saw this past Saturday. Since I'm 0 for my career in any Magny fights and Gastelum has weight issues, I'll be skipping the main event, maybe should have done that last Saturday too, lol.
 
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Posted: #3
I think Magny might be a decent spot, but I want to see Kelvin on the scale first.  Also, waiting for the line but I think Jorgensen is a good fade.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by GStarks:

I think Magny might be a decent spot, but I want to see Kelvin on the scale first.  Also, waiting for the line but I think Jorgensen is a good fade.

Can't disagree with Jorgensen Starks. Gonna do a bit more research to lock in my plays. I'm still auto fade on Magny!!!!
 
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Posted: #5
gastelum is not losing to magny.  He will dominate him.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by GStarks:

I think Magny might be a decent spot, but I want to see Kelvin on the scale first.  Also, waiting for the line but I think Jorgensen is a good fade.

Perez plus 135 looks enticing!!!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:

gastelum is not losing to magny. He will dominate him.


Couldn't disagree more sir lol would love to hear your voice of reason but for me, I see a 5 round fight at high elevation, Magny who is a cardio machine, Kelvin who has had weight issues and tends to gas fighting 5 rounds at elevation. I see a late submission victory possibly decision by Magny.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:



Couldn't disagree more sir lol would love to hear your voice of reason but for me, I see a 5 round fight at high elevation, Magny who is a cardio machine, Kelvin who has had weight issues and tends to gas fighting 5 rounds at elevation. I see a late submission victory possibly decision by Magny.


Hence, why I'm skipping this fight!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:



Hence, why I'm skipping this fight!!!!!!!!!!

HAHA I don't disagree with you, but +230 return on Magny seems too good to pass on for me! I just have to see the weigh ins before I pull the trigger for sure.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:



Couldn't disagree more sir lol would love to hear your voice of reason but for me, I see a 5 round fight at high elevation, Magny who is a cardio machine, Kelvin who has had weight issues and tends to gas fighting 5 rounds at elevation. I see a late submission victory possibly decision by Magny.


Gastelum is the better all around fighter he will use his athleticism and wrestling to dominate this fight. Magny is a solid fighter but I just dont feel he is on the same level as Gastelum.  Magny hasnt really beaten anyone while gastelum has done nothing but dominate every opponent he has faced (sans his last fight.)  He was given no chance to beat uriah hill in the tuf finale and he just went out and dominated him. His only loss was against an extremely tough tyrone woodley which was obviously because of coming in overweight. I don't believe this will be an issue for this fight as the ufc has set him up with a nutrionist to ensure that will not happen again. I think some people are using the fact that Gastelum came in over weight in his last fight in addition to the attractive odds magny has when they are picking the fight. Good luck on your bet but i have gastelum as the 5th leg of a 5 team parlay so I'm hoping this goes my way. I think gastelum stops him in the 3rd round.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:



Gastelum is the better all around fighter he will use his athleticism and wrestling to dominate this fight. Magny is a solid fighter but I just dont feel he is on the same level as Gastelum.  Magny hasnt really beaten anyone while gastelum has done nothing but dominate every opponent he has faced (sans his last fight.)  He was given no chance to beat uriah hill in the tuf finale and he just went out and dominated him. His only loss was against an extremely tough tyrone woodley which was obviously because of coming in overweight. I don't believe this will be an issue for this fight as the ufc has set him up with a nutrionist to ensure that will not happen again. I think some people are using the fact that Gastelum came in over weight in his last fight in addition to the attractive odds magny has when they are picking the fight. Good luck on your bet but i have gastelum as the 5th leg of a 5 team parlay so I'm hoping this goes my way. I think gastelum stops him in the 3rd round.


Very well said. I agree with all of it.
 
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Posted: #12
I can see both points of why either side can bet their guy. Magny has a good gas tank, with reach, and against lesser guys can work some BJJ. Gastelum does a great job of setting up his strikes to work his TD, trys to finish instead of lay and pray. Now lets look at the negatives, Magny is a fringe Top 10 to 15 guy, has been cracked before and his TD defense is ok at best. Gastelum has been spoon fed by Dana so bad that the UFC hired a nutrion guy for him to get to 170. UFC is trying hard for him though, gets a shot at Woodley a top 5 guy, misses weight by 10 lbs, losses even though Woodley breaks his foot. His punishment, go to 185 and fight a used up Marquart, easy winner. His reward another top 5 fight at 170 against Matt Brown. So twice he gets to jump a bunch of guys because he's a TUF champ, big deal.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

I can see both points of why either side can bet their guy. Magny has a good gas tank, with reach, and against lesser guys can work some BJJ. Gastelum does a great job of setting up his strikes to work his TD, trys to finish instead of lay and pray. Now lets look at the negatives, Magny is a fringe Top 10 to 15 guy, has been cracked before and his TD defense is ok at best. Gastelum has been spoon fed by Dana so bad that the UFC hired a nutrion guy for him to get to 170. UFC is trying hard for him though, gets a shot at Woodley a top 5 guy, misses weight by 10 lbs, losses even though Woodley breaks his foot. His punishment, go to 185 and fight a used up Marquart, easy winner. His reward another top 5 fight at 170 against Matt Brown. So twice he gets to jump a bunch of guys because he's a TUF champ, big deal.

Yea I agree Ferarri, I'm not sure what the UFC's main interest is with Kelvin... But he has been hand fed lately hasn't he lol. I also like that Magny was in Marquart's corner when he fought Kelvin and he was helping Brown train for Kelvin so that is another lean for me as well. I think he knew a game plan all along even though he wasn't fighting and that's why he jumped on the fight. I think a win from either guy here breaks them possibly into the top 10 so I guess we have to wait and see the weigh ins! But I miss most likely avoid this one even though the line on Magny seems worth a shot. Looking forward to seeing your plays! Tough break on Ronda Saturday. Still in shock I think haha. 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:


HAHA I don't disagree with you, but +230 return on Magny seems too good to pass on for me! I just have to see the weigh ins before I pull the trigger for sure.


Hmmmm, in your post you said you already pulled the trigger on Magny for a few units!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by WalshyMMA:


Yea I agree Ferarri, I'm not sure what the UFC's main interest is with Kelvin... But he has been hand fed lately hasn't he lol. I also like that Magny was in Marquart's corner when he fought Kelvin and he was helping Brown train for Kelvin so that is another lean for me as well. I think he knew a game plan all along even though he wasn't fighting and that's why he jumped on the fight. I think a win from either guy here breaks them possibly into the top 10 so I guess we have to wait and see the weigh ins! But I miss most likely avoid this one even though the line on Magny seems worth a shot. Looking forward to seeing your plays! Tough break on Ronda Saturday. Still in shock I think haha. 



Like I said Walshy, I can see 49er's and BMW's angles. I guess you and I will sit back and see who knows what about UFC!!!!!!!!!!!! In the year and a half I've been posting I've seen the 5* locks, the 80% winners, the guys you post for a few months then disappear, and the guys who only show up for the big events. Only 3 guys remain since I started and they were here before me. UFC or MMA for that matter is a almost weekly grinder!!!!!!!!!!!! As far as Ronda goes, I'm over that bet or lack of one, lol. I'm more upset with how I bet that fight and letting anyone who follows me down!!!!!!!!!!! I'll have my plays posted by mid Saturday.
 
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Posted: #16
I think tommorows weigh in will determine where the money will be going. Gastelum would be a god damn fool if he's coming into this fight overweight.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:

Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:

Couldn't disagree more sir lol would love to hear your voice of reason but for me, I see a 5 round fight at high elevation, Magny who is a cardio machine, Kelvin who has had weight issues and tends to gas fighting 5 rounds at elevation. I see a late submission victory possibly decision by Magny.
Gastelum is the better all around fighter he will use his athleticism and wrestling to dominate this fight. Magny is a solid fighter but I just dont feel he is on the same level as Gastelum.  Magny hasnt really beaten anyone while gastelum has done nothing but dominate every opponent he has faced (sans his last fight.)  He was given no chance to beat uriah hill in the tuf finale and he just went out and dominated him. His only loss was against an extremely tough tyrone woodley which was obviously because of coming in overweight. I don't believe this will be an issue for this fight as the ufc has set him up with a nutrionist to ensure that will not happen again. I think some people are using the fact that Gastelum came in over weight in his last fight in addition to the attractive odds magny has when they are picking the fight. Good luck on your bet but i have gastelum as the 5th leg of a 5 team parlay so I'm hoping this goes my way. I think gastelum stops him in the 3rd round.

He beat Hall by split decision and he beat Story by split decision in a fight some had him losing and he missed weight in that fight too!!!!!
 
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Posted: #18
Look there's no discounting gastelums weight issues but I'm confident he will be ready for this fight he's had many chances and he needs to show Dana that he's taking it seriously. Like I said today's weigh in should be telling I'll Be honest if gastelum looks like shit I'll be worried.
 
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Posted: #19
Kelvin looked good came in at 171. One other overlooked aspect of this fight is that magny is taking another fight on short notice and his 5th this year. Yes he has better cardio but will the fact that he has flight so many times in a short period affect him???
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:

Kelvin looked good came in at 171. One other overlooked aspect of this fight is that magny is taking another fight on short notice and his 5th this year. Yes he has better cardio but will the fact that he has flight so many times in a short period affect him???

You selling me or selling BMW, lol. Or are you selling guys who are viewing???
 
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Posted: #21

Agree with 49ers assessment.  I don't remember Gastelum ever going 5 rounds at elevation, or even gassing at all for  that matter (could be wrong).  Only remember him getting stronger as his fights went on (Musoke, Hall).

-300 seems close to right (unlike Browns odds).  I will be betting on Kelvin here one way or the other. Prob check out the finish odds aswell.

If Gastelum stays healthy and focused, I see him getting the belt at 170

 
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Posted: #22
Haha I'm just countering bmws argument
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

Agree with 49ers assessment.  I don't remember Gastelum ever going 5 rounds at elevation, or even gassing at all for  that matter (could be wrong).  Only remember him getting stronger as his fights went on (Musoke, Hall).

-300 seems close to right (unlike Browns odds).  I will be betting on Kelvin here one way or the other. Prob check out the finish odds aswell.

If Gastelum stays healthy and focused, I see him getting the belt at 170




Gastelum winning the belt Joe????????????????????????? I want what you are smoking Joe, lol.
 
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Posted: #24
Good stuff from  49er, BMW, Walshy, and Moneymaker this week. I'll be back with hopefully some winners!!!!!!!!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Ok boys from the top, well not the very top, you get my drift, lol.

Lamas(-600) 6 gets me 1.
Cejudo(-500) 75 gets me 15.
Escudero(+120) 1 gets me 1.20.
Perez(-120) 1.20 gets me 1.
Fabinski(-210) 2.10 gets me 1.
Perez(+115) 1 gets me 1.15.
Fili(-190) 3.80 gets me 2.
Under 1.5 Arzamendia/Reyes fight 1 gets me 1.25.
Under 1.5 Ramos/Herrera fight 1 gets me 1.15.
Lazaro(-110) 1.10 gets me 1.

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