As always, just some thoughts, nothing concrete, final bets during the fights on saturday. Came out in the negative last 2 weeks, trying to turn it around.
Penne vs. Ducote - Penne is 39 and hasn't been impressive since returning from her suspension, even though she is 2-0 (she lost that fight vs. Loopy Godinez). This is Ducote UFC debut, but she has fought some legitimate names in Invicta and Bellator with mixed results. I really want to back Ducote here just due to the age difference and Penne is another "onlyfans" fighter whose head may not be in the fight game anymore. One thing giving me hesitation is the height/reach advantage Penne will have. Ducote needs to do what Danielle Taylor did vs. Penne and use side movement and dart in with combos...Penne gets very uncomfortable when aggressively attacked and for someone with a decent reach, does not use a jab nearly enough, often using leg kicks. Lean - Ducote ML - If Ducote plays the role of a bully, she can do a lot of damage because she does have solid punching power and good boxing technique. Ducote is 28 and seems to be entering her prime, has looked great recently. I may take Ducote to win by TKO/KO stoppage +500 (fanduel) as well.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
As always, just some thoughts, nothing concrete, final bets during the fights on saturday. Came out in the negative last 2 weeks, trying to turn it around.
Penne vs. Ducote - Penne is 39 and hasn't been impressive since returning from her suspension, even though she is 2-0 (she lost that fight vs. Loopy Godinez). This is Ducote UFC debut, but she has fought some legitimate names in Invicta and Bellator with mixed results. I really want to back Ducote here just due to the age difference and Penne is another "onlyfans" fighter whose head may not be in the fight game anymore. One thing giving me hesitation is the height/reach advantage Penne will have. Ducote needs to do what Danielle Taylor did vs. Penne and use side movement and dart in with combos...Penne gets very uncomfortable when aggressively attacked and for someone with a decent reach, does not use a jab nearly enough, often using leg kicks. Lean - Ducote ML - If Ducote plays the role of a bully, she can do a lot of damage because she does have solid punching power and good boxing technique. Ducote is 28 and seems to be entering her prime, has looked great recently. I may take Ducote to win by TKO/KO stoppage +500 (fanduel) as well.
Stoltzfus vs. Grant - Stoltzfus has had a rough go in UFC (0-3) but faced pretty good competition and was competitive in all 3 fights. Grant usually starts strong, but has had trouble keeping it going for a full 3 rounds. Not one i feel supremely confident about, but... Lean - Stoltzfus ML - this is do or die for him
Jacoby vs. Jung - Jacoby is a solid kickboxer that likes to chop at legs and use his reach, riding a 7-0-1 record in the last 3 years ( 6 UFC fights). Da Un Jung is very well-rounded and never out of a fight. Jacoby will not get to enjoy the reach advantage he usually has, but Jung's front leg will be there for him to attack...the interesting thing will be how Jung reacts to it. No Lean here, although my head keeps telling me Jung due to him being more well-rounded.
Burns vs. Algeo - If Burns doesn't get the sub in the 1st round...this is likely Algeo's fight to win and that's how i'm betting it. Burns by sub in round1 +1000, I may include Algeo in a parlay or see what his number is "live" during the fight
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Stoltzfus vs. Grant - Stoltzfus has had a rough go in UFC (0-3) but faced pretty good competition and was competitive in all 3 fights. Grant usually starts strong, but has had trouble keeping it going for a full 3 rounds. Not one i feel supremely confident about, but... Lean - Stoltzfus ML - this is do or die for him
Jacoby vs. Jung - Jacoby is a solid kickboxer that likes to chop at legs and use his reach, riding a 7-0-1 record in the last 3 years ( 6 UFC fights). Da Un Jung is very well-rounded and never out of a fight. Jacoby will not get to enjoy the reach advantage he usually has, but Jung's front leg will be there for him to attack...the interesting thing will be how Jung reacts to it. No Lean here, although my head keeps telling me Jung due to him being more well-rounded.
Burns vs. Algeo - If Burns doesn't get the sub in the 1st round...this is likely Algeo's fight to win and that's how i'm betting it. Burns by sub in round1 +1000, I may include Algeo in a parlay or see what his number is "live" during the fight
Simon vs. Shore - grappler's delight, well deserved step-up fight for Shore. Sometimes you get 2 talented wrestlers and it turns into a boxing match...this is one i'll lay off of, unless i see a prop i like.
Soriano vs. Dalcha - Both men have lost their last 2 fights. Soriano can be KO or bust and that may be how i bet it. I don't think this one sees the final bell.
Tate vs. Murphy - I think Miesha uses her grappling to eek out a decision over Murphy . May use Tate in a parlay
Burgos vs. Jourdain - #1 contender for FOTN and i'm a bit surprised Burgos is as heavy a favorite as this, although he has been around the block compared to Jourdain. I think Jourdain is just getting started in his career compared to Burgos. I think this is more of a toss-up fight and will back Jourdain ML at +money and be able to live with it.
Mudaerji vs. Schnell - i like a lot of dogs on this card. What am i missing here??? Why is Schnell a +200 dog. I know Su has KO'd a lot of guys, but hasn't been great on the ground, and all 4 losses have been by sub. Schnell has a good reputation as a striker, but also has 8 submission wins in his career and after losing 3 of his last 4 (against championship level opponents mind you) he really needs a win and has to believe getting this to the ground may be the best way to do it. Schnell by sub +850 - i see this fight as more of a toss-up like Jourdain and Burgos. I don't think it sees a final bell either.
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Simon vs. Shore - grappler's delight, well deserved step-up fight for Shore. Sometimes you get 2 talented wrestlers and it turns into a boxing match...this is one i'll lay off of, unless i see a prop i like.
Soriano vs. Dalcha - Both men have lost their last 2 fights. Soriano can be KO or bust and that may be how i bet it. I don't think this one sees the final bell.
Tate vs. Murphy - I think Miesha uses her grappling to eek out a decision over Murphy . May use Tate in a parlay
Burgos vs. Jourdain - #1 contender for FOTN and i'm a bit surprised Burgos is as heavy a favorite as this, although he has been around the block compared to Jourdain. I think Jourdain is just getting started in his career compared to Burgos. I think this is more of a toss-up fight and will back Jourdain ML at +money and be able to live with it.
Mudaerji vs. Schnell - i like a lot of dogs on this card. What am i missing here??? Why is Schnell a +200 dog. I know Su has KO'd a lot of guys, but hasn't been great on the ground, and all 4 losses have been by sub. Schnell has a good reputation as a striker, but also has 8 submission wins in his career and after losing 3 of his last 4 (against championship level opponents mind you) he really needs a win and has to believe getting this to the ground may be the best way to do it. Schnell by sub +850 - i see this fight as more of a toss-up like Jourdain and Burgos. I don't think it sees a final bell either.
Li vs. Salikhov - tough fight to pick, but once again i'll go with the dog Li ML
Lemos vs. Waterson - Waterson ML +260.....Waterson could pull off a victory just off volume alone. May bet it to go to split/majority decision +400 (draftkings). Waterson is tough to finish and we may see some grappling by each fighter.
Rodriguez vs. Ortega - either going Ortega by sub +200 or Yair by decision +330 - Ortega's best path to victory is to get that patented guillotine of his, i think Yair wins the stand-up, but Ortega is a pretty tough guy with a solid chin
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Li vs. Salikhov - tough fight to pick, but once again i'll go with the dog Li ML
Lemos vs. Waterson - Waterson ML +260.....Waterson could pull off a victory just off volume alone. May bet it to go to split/majority decision +400 (draftkings). Waterson is tough to finish and we may see some grappling by each fighter.
Rodriguez vs. Ortega - either going Ortega by sub +200 or Yair by decision +330 - Ortega's best path to victory is to get that patented guillotine of his, i think Yair wins the stand-up, but Ortega is a pretty tough guy with a solid chin
Things are looking up for Misha Tate to be fed to Valentina Shevchenko sooner rather than later. But in order to get to the title fight, Tate needs to get past Murphy. In my opinion, Misha will be able to impose her tactics on her opponent. Tate is a good fighter, which cannot be said for Lauren. It's Miesha's parterre work that should be winning.
Matt Schnell - Su Mudaerji. Win 2
On the one hand, Matt is the more experienced fighter, his level of opposition was much stronger. On the other, a hungrier Suh, who wants to continue his winning streak. It's also worth taking into account the Chinese man's long downtime without fighting. It may well affect his performance. Still, I think Mudaerjee is the better fighter, his aggression and intensity will take its toll.
Li Jingliang - Muslim Salikhov. Win 2
Both athletes are not strong in the ground, each will be trying to outbid the other in the post. If we talk about the favourite it is the Russian. Salihov is already 38 years old, the end of his career is not far off. And this is the time for him to turn on the gas. I think he will win, but not before the sub.
Michelle Waterson - Amanda Lemos. Win 1
The odds in this pairing are highly disconcerting. They underestimate Waterson, who has a lot of experience under her belt. Her level of opposition was much higher, and her fighting skills are no worse than those of the Brazilian. Perhaps we can take a gamble on the underdog's win here.
Betting without risk at BETNETIX
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Lauren Murphy - Miesha Tate. Win 2
Things are looking up for Misha Tate to be fed to Valentina Shevchenko sooner rather than later. But in order to get to the title fight, Tate needs to get past Murphy. In my opinion, Misha will be able to impose her tactics on her opponent. Tate is a good fighter, which cannot be said for Lauren. It's Miesha's parterre work that should be winning.
Matt Schnell - Su Mudaerji. Win 2
On the one hand, Matt is the more experienced fighter, his level of opposition was much stronger. On the other, a hungrier Suh, who wants to continue his winning streak. It's also worth taking into account the Chinese man's long downtime without fighting. It may well affect his performance. Still, I think Mudaerjee is the better fighter, his aggression and intensity will take its toll.
Li Jingliang - Muslim Salikhov. Win 2
Both athletes are not strong in the ground, each will be trying to outbid the other in the post. If we talk about the favourite it is the Russian. Salihov is already 38 years old, the end of his career is not far off. And this is the time for him to turn on the gas. I think he will win, but not before the sub.
Michelle Waterson - Amanda Lemos. Win 1
The odds in this pairing are highly disconcerting. They underestimate Waterson, who has a lot of experience under her belt. Her level of opposition was much higher, and her fighting skills are no worse than those of the Brazilian. Perhaps we can take a gamble on the underdog's win here.
That's more like it!!!! dude is breathing heavy out his mouth and your shadowboxign him, take him down again, grant hang on the mat when he's this tired
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That's more like it!!!! dude is breathing heavy out his mouth and your shadowboxign him, take him down again, grant hang on the mat when he's this tired
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