UFC on Fox 23 Money Makers

UFC on Fox 23

5 Unit Plays (Max Plays)
F. N'Gannou + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-220)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + F. N'Gannou + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-145)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + F. N'Gannou (-200)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Round + F. N'Gannou (-130)

3 Unit Plays
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-165)
N'Gannou Wins Inside the Distance + Cerrone/Masvidal Over 1 Round (-150)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + N'Gannou Wins Inside the Distance (-110)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Rd Arlovski/N'Gannou Under 3 Rds (-180)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Round (-165)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Knight/Caceres Over 1 Round (-150)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-165)

*Plays are on a scale of 1-5 units


2017 Record: 1-4 (-16.35 units)


Lots of tricky fights on this card in my opinion. I like a lot of various totals and will be using some of those props as parlay pieces across the event. N'Gannou is about the only fight I actually feel confident in. I also like the de Lima/Kimball fight to finish inside the distance, as well as Sterling/Assuncao & Shevchenko/Pena to get out of the 1st round. Some books may not allow you make some of these parlays, but they are all available props on 5Dimes. Good luck if you tail anything.

Here are some quick thoughts on each of the fights from my perspective:


Shevchenko/Pena: Your typical striker vs. grappler matchup here. Shevchenko is much better on the feet and Pena will obviously be looking to close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Shevchenko should be able to keep Pena at range and pick her apart. If Pena does get inside, Shevchenko has a strong clinch game and will make her work for it. I see Shevchenko keeping the distance for most of the fight and scoring points on the feet en route to a decision victory.

Recommended Play: May be worthy of a small play on Shevchenko but I'm staying away from betting either side

Cerrone/Masvidal: The "People's Main Event" in my opinion. AWESOME matchup here and a close one to call. Welterweight Cowboy has been on a hell of a roll lately, so it's hard to pick against him. Masvidal is solid but tends to be stagnant at times, which always seems to lead him to a split decision result. I think Cerrone utilizes that kicking game and outworks Masvidal on the score cards. Masvidal is one tough dude, though, so I don't think we'll see a finish.

Recommended Play: Small play on Cowboy perhaps, but I'd rather bet the over, if anything

N'Gannou/Arlovski: This seems like the type of fight that gives the up & coming N'Gannou a decent "name" to put on his W list. N'Gannou's chin is still untested and we really haven't seen him have to defend on the ground. However, Arlovski seems to be fading and that chin isn't what it used to be. N'Gannou is far from a lock here, but he likely gets the win here more of than not.

Recommended Play: I'm using N'Gannou in several parlays, including him to win inside the distance

Knight/Caceres: Close fight but Knight is scrappy and throws more volume. Caceres is flashy and pushes a good pace, but I feel like he doesn't always do enough to win rounds. Short notice, elevation, and cardio may play an issue in this fight, so it's also tough to back Knight. This one likely goes the distance.

Recommended Play: I don't really like either side from a betting perspective. I think this one hits the judges' score cards and we may even see a split decision. I'd rather play the over if I had to.

Alvey/Marquardt: This could be a quick finish or turn into 15 minutes of staring. Alvey's southpaw stance and the power in the right hand is something that has plagued Marquardt in the past. However, Alvey doesn't like to lead the dance, so he could wind up just waiting to counter the whole time and we get a snooze fest. I can never get a read on Marquardt. One fight, he looks completely shot and done, then the next fight he looks decent again. I'd stay away from this one.

Recommended Play: Stay the hell away

Assuncao/Sterling: The old version of Assuncao likely beats Sterling, but he's older now and Sterling is in his physical prime and improving each fight. Sterling is still pretty green on the feet, so I think this all comes down to how much improvement he's made in his standup since the Caraway fight. If he's improved a good amount, I think he wins a decision here. If he's still the same, Assuncao has the advantage and Sterling probably loses a decision. Either way, I think this one goes the distance.

Recommended Play: Sterling or Pass. I would rather play the over.

Jingliang/Nash: Jingliang is the better striker and throws more volume but Nash is likely the better wrestler. Nash is making his UFC debut and I just don't know enough about him to make a confident pick here.

Recommended Play: Either a small play on Jingliang or pass altogether

Johnson/da Silva: da Silva looked horrendous in his last fight. i think Johnson could end up doing the same thing to him again in this fight. da Silva is still dangerous early on, so it's another tough fight to call.

Recommended Play: Too many unknowns with Johnson making his debut and da Silva looking bad in his last fight. Pass

Spicely/Di Chirico: Spicely.....this mofo single handedly killed my night last year when he shocked and defeated Thiago Santos in what was supposed to be a squash match. To be honest, I don't really know how to read this fight. Spicely is sneaky on the ground, but he also isn't very athletic and quits at the first sign of adversity. Di Chirico didn't impress me in his last outing either. I'm going to stay the hell away.

Recommended Play: Pass

de Lima/Kimball: This one probably doesn't last long and is one of my main plays on the card to not go the distance. de Lima probably gets a 1st round finish, but if he doesn't, look for Kimball to take him out soon after.

Recommended Play: Forget picking a side and just take any/all plays associated with the "under," including the under 1.5 rounds

Shelton/Pantoja: Who knows?

Recommended Play: From what I've seen, Shelton will be the better fighter down the road but Pantoja is probably the better fighter at the moment. It's a dog or pass situation in my eyes. Too many unknowns to make a confident bet here.

Cottrell/Gonzalez: Who??

Recommended Play: Crack open a few beers and get comfy for the rest of the card

Great info BOL 

UFC on Fox 23

5 Unit Plays (Max Plays)
F. N'Gannou + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-220)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + F. N'Gannou + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-145)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + F. N'Gannou (-200)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Round  + F. N'Gannou (-130)

3 Unit Plays
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-165)
N'Gannou Wins Inside the Distance + Cerrone/Masvidal Over 1 Round (-150)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rounds + N'Gannou Wins Inside the Distance (-110)
De Lima/Kimball Under 3 Rds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Rd Arlovski/N'Gannou Under 3 Rds (-180)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Sterling/Assuncao Over 1 Round (-165)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Knight/Caceres Over 1 Round (-150)
De Lima/Kimball Under 2 Rounds + Shevchenko/Pena Over 1 Round (-165)

*Plays are on a scale of 1-5 units


Event Record: 11-0 (+41 units)
2017 Record: 12-4 (+24.65 units)


Recap: Well, I can't say I could have imagined a better bounce-back night from last night than that. As I figured, many of the fights were too close to call, so I took advantage of a lot of totals/round props. N'Gannou was my most confident side and he didn't disappoint. What a freak that guy is. Could be looking at at future HW champ if he continues to learn and evolve. Obviously Arlovski was just another stepping stone for him and he has a ways to go, but he sure does possess all the physical tools to be successful.

Outside of that, there really isn't much more to say. All of the other fights that I bet on played out closely to how I had envisioned them, with most of them not even being a sweat. I will admit I got lucky with the Cowboy/Masvidal fight getting to the 2nd round. I don't know what the hell Herb Dean was doing there, but I think he let the pressure of the fight being in Cerrone's backyard cloud his judgement. Masvidal had him out. Lord knows I've been on the wrong side of those situations before, though, so I'll take it. See you guys next week!

beauty

Thanks, it's always fun to have nights like that and I try to enjoy them while they last because the next event could be the complete opposite lol

Holy Hell, dude.  I don't think I've ever seen an 11-0 night in MMA.  Incredible.  Remember this night forever, and go have a bada$$ dinner to celebrate this week.  

Good picks and nice angle with selecting probable fight lengths

Thanks for the kind words guys, I appreciate it. I'll admit, it wasn't necessarily the method of betting that I would have preferred to use, but I went with the path that looked the most profitable. It was definitely weird cheering more for fights to end quickly or last a few rounds, instead of just cheering for a specific fighter. I was lucky enough to have it all work out the way it did. Each card is different and you never know what crazy stuff will happen in this sport. It could have easily gone the other way if a few things didn't work out the way I had predicted. I'll take it, though, and move on to the next event, and hope that it's profitable. Good luck to all!