UFC Predictions / Write up (my first)

Question

This is one of the most value-thin cards I've seen in a long time. So many top tier fighters on the biggest card of the year. I'm new here, but I've been picking UFC and Bellator cards better than 80% this year, so I decided to start posting my picks. Admittedly, I probably picked the most difficult card to start my published record with, but here goes!

I invite discussion on all of my picks- and some of these will definitely stir some debate!

Justin "Tank" Scoggins (-350) v. Josh "The Gremlin" Sampo (+275)

Scoggins has shown excellent Karate and wrestling from the top position, but showed a major weakness in grappling in his last fight against John Moraga. Moraga attempted 4 or 5 submissions from his guard before Scoggins finally tapped to an improperly applied guillotine. Sampo is relentless with submission attempts- he will attack any limb you extend his direction. Sampo is no slouch on the feet either. Sampo’s last fight ended in a rear naked choke, but it was all predicated on a vicious uppercut from Paddy Holohan. Scoggins is slightly ahead in striking, but I think Sampo has learned more from his last fight than Scoggins has from his. Sampo is miles ahead in grappling.

The Pick: Sampo to win +275 (submission)

Islam Makhachev (-300) v. Leo "The Lion" Kuntz

Islam who? This guy trained with Khabib Nurmagomedov before he went to AKA, and now with Nurmagomedov’s father. He’s got world, European, and Russian championship titles in Sambo. He’s 11-0 professionally. Remember: Khabib was also 11-0 at one point. Leo Kuntz, a name I had never heard of, is another fighter making his UFC debut. He has titles in some small fight clubs in North Dakota and is 17 -1 professionally. I just don’t see the no-name tough guy getting his hand raised over an elite Russian grappler.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev to win -300 (decision)

Colby "Chaos" Covington (-265) v. Mike "Quicksand" Pyle

Colby Covington, member of ATT, is undefeated 7-0 professionally with his first 2 fights in the UFC being wins by finish. He’s a Pan Am BJJ champ and 2 time NCAA All American. Mike Pyle is a BJJ black belt and former WEC champion. Both fighters have a grappling resume, but Pyle hasn’t really shown it as of lately. His last 3 fights have been KO/TKO finishes, with him losing 2 of 3. Covington isn’t going to engage in a brawl, he’s going to use his superior grappling skills and his cardio advantage to dominate Mike Pyle. The 39 year old will take his 3rd loss in 4 fights and will be pushed into retirement.

The Pick: Colby Covington to win -265 (submission)

Rose "Thug" Namajunas (-280) v. Nina "The Strina" Ansaroff (+220)

This line is a gift from Las Vegas. Like many fights in the WSW division, Rose Namajunas is being stupidly over-valued. Rose holds a black belt in Tae Kwon Do, black belt in Karate, and a blue belt in BJJ. Nina Ansaroff has a 3rd degree black belt in TKD and a purple belt in BJJ. She also has 10 professional fight to Rose’s 4. She was on a 5 fight win streak, all by finish, until her loss in her UFC debut. I’m chalking that up to first fight jitters. Her win streak was longer than Rose’s entire pro career. This division is so incredibly thin, Rose’s #4 ranking means absolutely nothing. Overall, this card doesn’t present many value betting opportunities- but this is most certainly a stand out value bet.

The Pick: Nina Ansaroff +220

Uriah "Prime Time" Hall (-350) v. Rafael "Sapo" Natal (+265)

The outcome of this fight will depend solely on where the fight takes place. If Uriah Hall can keep it standing, he’s got a very high chance of winning by knockout. His last fight is a great example, with his TKO stoppage of Ron Stallings, who is a BJJ brown belt. But Natal has been great at turning every fight into a grappling match, and the Brazilian is on a whole nother level than Stallings. It’s a black belt in Karate vs a black belt in BJJ. Natal has a better pro win record and better record within the UFC (7-4-1 vs 3-2). Despite his nick name, Hall isn’t ready for Prime Time.

The Pick: Rafael Natal +265 (decision)

whitebelt · Answer

This is one of the most value-thin cards I've seen in a long time. So many top tier fighters on the biggest card of the year. I'm new here, but I've been picking UFC and Bellator cards better than 80% this year, so I decided to start posting my picks. Admittedly, I probably picked the most difficult card to start my published record with, but here goes!

I invite discussion on all of my picks- and some of these will definitely stir some debate!

Justin "Tank" Scoggins (-350) v. Josh "The Gremlin" Sampo (+275)

Scoggins has shown excellent Karate and wrestling from the top position, but showed a major weakness in grappling in his last fight against John Moraga. Moraga attempted 4 or 5 submissions from his guard before Scoggins finally tapped to an improperly applied guillotine. Sampo is relentless with submission attempts- he will attack any limb you extend his direction. Sampo is no slouch on the feet either. Sampo’s last fight ended in a rear naked choke, but it was all predicated on a vicious uppercut from Paddy Holohan. Scoggins is slightly ahead in striking, but I think Sampo has learned more from his last fight than Scoggins has from his. Sampo is miles ahead in grappling.

The Pick: Sampo to win +275 (submission)

Islam Makhachev (-300) v. Leo "The Lion" Kuntz

Islam who? This guy trained with Khabib Nurmagomedov before he went to AKA, and now with Nurmagomedov’s father. He’s got world, European, and Russian championship titles in Sambo. He’s 11-0 professionally. Remember: Khabib was also 11-0 at one point. Leo Kuntz, a name I had never heard of, is another fighter making his UFC debut. He has titles in some small fight clubs in North Dakota and is 17 -1 professionally. I just don’t see the no-name tough guy getting his hand raised over an elite Russian grappler.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev to win -300 (decision)

Colby "Chaos" Covington (-265) v. Mike "Quicksand" Pyle

Colby Covington, member of ATT, is undefeated 7-0 professionally with his first 2 fights in the UFC being wins by finish. He’s a Pan Am BJJ champ and 2 time NCAA All American. Mike Pyle is a BJJ black belt and former WEC champion. Both fighters have a grappling resume, but Pyle hasn’t really shown it as of lately. His last 3 fights have been KO/TKO finishes, with him losing 2 of 3. Covington isn’t going to engage in a brawl, he’s going to use his superior grappling skills and his cardio advantage to dominate Mike Pyle. The 39 year old will take his 3rd loss in 4 fights and will be pushed into retirement.

The Pick: Colby Covington to win -265 (submission)

Rose "Thug" Namajunas (-280) v. Nina "The Strina" Ansaroff (+220)

This line is a gift from Las Vegas. Like many fights in the WSW division, Rose Namajunas is being stupidly over-valued. Rose holds a black belt in Tae Kwon Do, black belt in Karate, and a blue belt in BJJ. Nina Ansaroff has a 3rd degree black belt in TKD and a purple belt in BJJ. She also has 10 professional fight to Rose’s 4. She was on a 5 fight win streak, all by finish, until her loss in her UFC debut. I’m chalking that up to first fight jitters. Her win streak was longer than Rose’s entire pro career. This division is so incredibly thin, Rose’s #4 ranking means absolutely nothing. Overall, this card doesn’t present many value betting opportunities- but this is most certainly a stand out value bet.

The Pick: Nina Ansaroff +220

Uriah "Prime Time" Hall (-350) v. Rafael "Sapo" Natal (+265)

The outcome of this fight will depend solely on where the fight takes place. If Uriah Hall can keep it standing, he’s got a very high chance of winning by knockout. His last fight is a great example, with his TKO stoppage of Ron Stallings, who is a BJJ brown belt. But Natal has been great at turning every fight into a grappling match, and the Brazilian is on a whole nother level than Stallings. It’s a black belt in Karate vs a black belt in BJJ. Natal has a better pro win record and better record within the UFC (7-4-1 vs 3-2). Despite his nick name, Hall isn’t ready for Prime Time.

The Pick: Rafael Natal +265 (decision)

whitebelt · Answer

Dong "Stun Gun" Hyun Kim (-285) v. Josh "The People's Warrior" Burkman (+225)

In his first UFC fight since 2008, Burkman went into a striking war with Hector Lombard, who we now know was on all kinds of performance enhancers. Burkman went 9-2 in other organizations between contracts with the UFC. It’s hard to so say how this will translate against Dong Hyun Kim, whose last 3 fiights include 2 wins by knockout and a TKO loss to Tyron Woodley. It seems Kim has forgotten all about his Judo black belt (4th degree) as his previous 7 wins were all by decision. If Burkman can stand and bang with a steroided up Josh Burkman, I don’t see why he can’t do it with Kim. But I think this is the fight where Kim reverts back to his former ways and uses his Judo to score points through takedowns and control, while delivering technical strikes without engaging in trades.

The Pick: Dong "Stun Gun" Hyun Kim -285 (decision)

John "The Magician" Dodson (-400) v. Zach "Full Size" Makovsky (+300)

This matchup is not as lopsided as the line would indicate. On the surface, there’s hardly a reason to bet against Dodson given that his only UFC loss was a decision to Mighty Mouse- a fight in which Mighty Mouse landed 5 takedowns and completely dominated. Of his 5 UFC wins, Dodson has 4 Knockouts and 1 Decision win. Say hello to Division 1 wrestler and BJJ purple belt Zach Makovsky. In 3 of his 4 UFC fights, Machovsky has landed 5+ takedowns with the only exception being his loss to Brazilian Jussier Formiga, who holds black belts in Judo & BJJ. Simply said, Dodson can only win by knockout and Machovsky has never been knocked out. When their fights have gone to decision, Dodson is 6-6 professionally (1-1 UFC) while Machovsky is 12-2 professionally (3-1 UFC). Vegas is way off with this line and I’m going to exploit it.

The Pick: Zach "Full Size" Makovsky +300 (decision)

Joseph Benavidez (-550) v. John Moraga (+375)

No disrespect to Jon Moraga, but he’s only been beating up newbies since entering the UFC. Benavidez has been destroying everyone not named Mighty Mouse or Dominick Cruz. I would take Moraga in almost any fight except this one. Joseph Benavidez holds advantages in every area and I predict he will win. But since the line is horrible for Benavidez and these are two dangerous fighters known for finishing, I’m betting on the finish.

The Pick: FIght does not go the distance / Under 2.5 rounds (Winner: Benavidez)

whitebelt · Answer

Travis "Hapa" Browne (-450) v. Andrei "Pit Bull" Arlovski (+325)

This is another fight that is guaranteed to be a brawl. There’s not much I need to say on this fight. Travis Browne has finished his last 5 wins, and his only losses in his career came to Bigfoot Silva and Fabricio Werdum. Arlovski last lost to Anthony Johnson by decision in 2013 on a WSOF card, but has won 4 straight since including 2 KO’s (with his latest against Bigfoot). Don’t get turned off to Browne based on that common opponent though. Arlovski’s 2nd most recent fight was a split decision over Brendan Schaub, a fighter that Browne absolutely destroyed in a R1 TKO in his last outing. I’m betting Browne in my parlays and betting the finish straight up.

The Pick: FIght does not go the distance / Under 1.5 rounds (Winner: Browne by TKO)

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (-450) v. John "The Bull" Makdessi (+325)

You probably think I’m crazy to even analyze a fight that Cowboy is in. He’s on a 7 fight win streak and even as the promotion’s most loyal fighter, can’t seem to get a title shot. What’s actually crazy is looking past Makdessi. Yes, he’s taking this fight on short notice after (another) Khabib injury. But Makdessi has 2 wins by R1 KO/TKO in his last 3 fights, and has won 4 of his last 5. He’s outstruck his opponents in all 5 of those bouts and only lost 1 after being outwrestled. Cowboy is not a wrestler, though he has shown great Jiu Jitsu in his last few fights. Cowboy did not look good in his last fight with Benson Henderson, and arguably stole a decision win in a fight where he was heavily outstruck. This will be a stand up fight, and Makdessi is the superior striker. He is superior in defense and counter punching. Cowboy will inevitably try to clinch and go to the ground, but Makdessi will be ready. Enjoy the value.

The Pick: John Makdessi +325 (decision)

Chris "All-American" Weidman (-500 )vs Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (+350)

I’m not spending any time thinking, nor writing about this. Vitor Belfort is a 38 year old washed up fighter who is about to suffer the worst loss of his career. He hasn’t fought since 2013, when testosterone replacement therapy was allowed. Without TRT, he has nothing to offer at 38 years old, with half of those years being in the fight business. Oh, and Weidman is the reigning champ and arguably one of the most dominant fighters ever in the 185 division. Just bet Weidman to win inside the distance so you can some kind of reasonable price.

The Pick: Chris Weidman by finish (prop bet not available at this time)

Daniel Cormier (-140) v. Anthony Johnson (+110)

The line on this is the closest of the whole card, but it should be closer… it should be a pick’em. A world class Olympic wrestler against the most vicious knockout artist in UFC history. The advantages for each fighter are clear. The only real question is whether Cormier can turn this into a wrestling match. It appears that his age is finally catching up to him after being completely ineffective against Jon Jones. In matches like this, I look for a common opponents or similar opponents. Cormier has beat strikers in Dan Henderson and Roy Nelson. Johnson is better, younger, and more ‘prime’ than both of those matchups. Rumble has a recent win over Nogueira and more notably Phil Davis, who resembles Cormier more than any fighter. Take the striker. Take the value.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson +110 (R2 Knockout)

Ferrari29 · Answer

Good luck White Belt, great write up.

sawman · Answer

Some ballsy picks. Nice write ups

Ferrari29 · Answer

I&#x27;m with you on Natal, Browne, and Weidman at least!!!

rzagza · Answer

Jesus, good luck with all those upsets. This does not appear to be a great card for upset picks. Natal is the only one of those I'd take a flyer on, and maybe Sampo - strictly because Hall and Scoggins arent top shelf and are raw. Makdessi- NO F'N WAY. Makovsky? No thanks. Dodson isnt likely to lose to anyone not named MM or Benavidez.

I hate to see people try to find value and only find losers.

whitebelt · Answer

To be fair, I did start my post by stating this card is the thinnest in value I have seen in years. With that out of the way, I would like to point out that if you parlay the top 5 favorites on this card, you end up with a 5 pick parlay for &#x2B;143. So when I say it&#x27;s value-thin, it&#x27;s thin as air.I am most certainly not telling everyone to wager on every pick I have listed- I&#x27;m simply trying to provide insight to every reader who is looking for some insight on a particular pick they&#x27;re considering.For anyone wondering what I&#x27;m loading up on, my recommended picks are as follows1. Nina Ansaroff to win inside the distance if you can find &#x2B;500 or better. She has 88% career finish rate on 6 wins (4 losses)2. Johnson by KO/TKO if you can find &#x2B;250 prop. He will not be winning by decision or submission.3. Makovsky &#x2B;400 straight. He averages 5 takedowns/fight which Dodson doesn&#x27;t match up well against. Sure, Dodson may be able to keep the fight standing but at &#x2B;400 I love the bet.I&#x27;m setting a series of small parlays with some of these live dogs for added value on some heavy favorites.

Ferrari29 · Answer

Hey we will see Rzagza. He boats a 80% win ratio pre covers post, so something is gonna hit the fan!!!!

whitebelt · Answer

Islam Makhachev -365 and Colby Covington -275 are also locks in my opinion, but I am not interested on those straight odds and will be parlaying them.

Ferrari29 · Answer

I love the write ups which I stated but the Cerrone fight is tough to swallow. You didn&#x27;t mention he took the Benson fight on 2 weeks notice or that Makdessi is ranked 60 something in the world.

Ferrari29 · Answer

What about Islam inside the distance or by sub???

whitebelt · Answer

Islam may very well finish the fight, but he only has a 64% finish rate on his 11 - 0 pro record. His opponent&#x27;s only loss is by submission but I&#x27;m not taking a prop bet here.

whitebelt · Answer

You are right regarding Cerrone&#x27;s fight on short notice, but that&#x27;s what he&#x27;s become known for in the UFC. Fighting 6 times in one year must take its toll eventually. To get into some numbers, Cowboy and Makdessi have 82% and 81% pro win rates, respectively. Their pro finish rates are 70% &amp; 69% and have both been finished in 33% of their losses. Cowboy is on a 7W streak (6 if you discount his last v. Benson) while Makdessi has won 4 of last 5. Makdessi dominated his last fight to a R1 TKO against Shane Campbell, who finished most of his pro fights by TKO or submission. Campbell has Pro World titles in Muay Thai and Kickboxing, so he serves as a valid basis of comparison to Cowboy from a stylistic matchup viewpoint. For even money, I probably lean Cowboy. But I think Makdessi is undervalued at &#x2B;450

Ferrari29 · Answer

I&#x27;m just fishing, lol.

whitebelt · Answer

If you compare point stats within their UFC careers, you will also find Makdessi lands 4.79 strikes per minute to Cowboy's 3.87. They have comparable accuracy with 48.07% Makdessi and 47.46% Cowboy. Makdessi has better defense with 74.61% strikes defended to Cowboy's 56.17%, and absorbs 3.35 strikes/minute to Cowboy's 3.63. And when Cerrone's getting out-struck, he can't depend on the takedown with Makdessi's 87.1% takedown defense.

I know I'm not dropping any revalations here that Donald Cerrone will "take one to give one", but the status are worth considering when evaluating a +450 underdog.

Granted, each fighter has compiled these status against different quality opponents- but I'm on Makdessi in a few parlays with great risk:reward ratios.

My actual picks (in units) are soon to come, just waiting for a few lines to move as I expect...

whitebelt · Answer

4u at &#x2B;1800Islam Makhachev -350Nina Ansaroff &#x2B;230Zach Makovsky &#x2B;3504u at &#x2B;2331Colby Covington -285Rafael Natal &#x2B;300Zach Makovsky &#x2B;3504u at &#x2B;1280Islam Makhachev -350Colby Covington -285Dong Hyun Kim -300John Makdessi &#x2B;375Chris Weidman -5004u at &#x2B;28100Nina Ansaroff &#x2B;230Zach Makovsky &#x2B;350Rafael Natal &#x2B;300John Makdessi &#x2B;3754u at &#x2B;1575Josh Sampo &#x2B;300Dong Hyun Kim -300Joseph Benavidez -600Travis Browne -450Chris Weidman -550Anthony Johnson -115

whitebelt · Answer

40u - Anthony Johnson by KO/TKO, hoping for &#x2B;200, no line yet at Bovada40u - Nina Ansaroff Inside distance, hoping for &#x2B;500, no line yet at Bovada

PFamily413 · Answer

So 1 unit is $1?

Ferrari29 · Answer

johnson plus 175 for ko/tko. ansaroff plus 642 inside the distance at 5dimes.

str8edgejedi · Answer

Ansaroff is going to blow up a bunch of your parlays and Makdessi is going to blowup the rest.. There is nowhere that Makdessi is better then Cowboy in.. Striking, subs, chin, and grappling, all advantages go to Cerrone.. Not to mention the level of competition between the two is nowhere close..

As for Ansaroff, you list both women's credentials, then go on to say Rose's ranking is unwarranted because the division is thin.. If that's the case, you should throw out Ansaroff's win streak as well, because the division is thin.. It's easy to go on a win streak when the opponents you face aren't as good..

Also questioning the Natal pick.. Yes, he's a BJJ black belt, but that doesn't mean much if he can't get Hall to the ground.. If Natal can't take it to the ground, how does he win the fight?

Welcome to the forum, I'm a relative newcomer here myself.. Best of luck to you this weekend..

whitebelt · Answer

Ansaroff is only on 2 of my parlays and I'm confident on that pick. Yes on this card 1 unit = 1 dollar. This is an awesome card from a spectator standpoint but horrible from a value standpoint. I decided to only spread $100 across the whole card. Because the prices on favorites are so bad with -400 being the average over the top 5 favorites, my strategy on this card is low risk : high reward plays. I'm more than comfortable losing $100 on these flyers, whereas $100 spread on the top 5 favorites wouldn't even profit enough to buy a cheeseburger. I go heavier on both dollars and straight picks with most cards, especially those value-ripe Brazilian cards.

You are all correct to question some my picks, most notably Makdessi and Makovsky. I'm not calling them locks by any means- I only view them as live underdogs by the numbers that warrant their price when parlayed with strong favorites with horrible prices. Notice I did not take either of those straight up.

Regarding Natal vs Uriah Hall- Hall has a tremendous amount of buzz- mostly stemming from his spinning back kick KO on TUF that has been on a million highlight reels. But he's still 3-2 in the UFC and 10-4 career. Compare that to Natal's 7-4-1 UFC and 19-6-1 pro record. The outcome of the fight will be determined by who imposes their will: Uriah's Black Belt striking or Natal's Black Belt Grappling. This will most certainly be the toughest test from an opposing style for each fighter. I view the matchup as close, but with the line so far apart I think the price is right for Natal on a card where there are very few value picks. Again, not loading up on Natal straight up but happy to put him on a couple parlays. His win will come by decision.

ArchieAction · Answer

Nice write up.  And some ballsy picks.  Good Luck!  You know at least 1 or 2 of these big dogs will win to ruin everyone&#x27;s chalk parlays.

whitebelt · Answer

Thanks

whitebelt · Answer

Hopefully Vitor isn&#x27;t one of those upsets. If I didn&#x27;t already make my bets I might have left Weidman off a parlay -550. News came out this morning that Vitor&#x27;s testosterone are suspiciously high in his pre-fight drug tests. Weidman seems quite upset, being accusatory in a tongue in cheek way. And I believe he&#x27;s right. Vitor&#x27;s last 3 fights were the best of his career. The big angle in this fight, apart from his age, was this being his first fight after stopping TRT under the new rules. Now it seems he may not have. His numbers are at the top of the allowed range, but how does a 38 year old have higher testosterone than a 32 year old physical freak like Weidman?On 3/30, Chris Weidman had 3.7 ng/mL t-level. .092 T/E. On 4/27, he had 3.7 ng/mL again and .13 T/E.On 3/16, Vitor Belfort had 12 ng/mL t-level and 1.7 T/E ratio. On 4/28, he had 5 ng/mL and 1.5.Definitely not picking Vitor but Weidman at -550 already sucked for a line, definitely would have stayed off it.

UFC Predictions / Write up (my first)

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