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UFC TUF 18 Finale

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Captain
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Posts: 6706
Posted: #1
YTD Record:
Overall: 196-202-4, +54.45 Units 
UFC: 135-153-2, +22.40 Units 
Strikeforce: 4-3, +0.05 Units 
Bellator: 53-43, +30.00 Units 
WSOF: 4-3-2, +2.00 Units 
Final 2012 Record: 158-174-2, -76.20 Units 
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units 
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units 
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Here are the plays:

1.  Parlay of Julianna Pena over Jessica Rakoczy and Raquel Pennington over Roxanne Modafferi.  Risking 10 units to win 8.5 units.

2.  Parlay of Chris Holdsworth over Davey Grant and Sean Spencer over Drew Dober.  Risking 5 units to win 6 units.

3.  Parlay Jared Rosholt over Walter Harris and Jessamyn Duke over Peggy Morgan.  Risking 3 units to win 3.55 units.

4.  Gray Mayard (-138) over Nate Diaz.  Risking 4.1 units to win 3 units.

5.  Joshua Sampson (-116) over Ryan Benoit.  Risking 3.5 units to win 3 units.

6.  Maximo Blanco (-178) over Akira Corassani.  Risking 3.55 units to win 2 units.

7.  Tom Niinimaki (-105) over Rani Yahya.  Risking 3.15 units to win 3 units.

8.  Julian Pena - Jessica Rakoczy under 2.5 rounds (+145).  Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

9.  Walter Harris - Jared Rosholt over 1.5 rounds (+120).  Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

10.  Akira Corassani - Maximo Blanco over 2.5 rounds (-105).  Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

11.  Chris Holdsworth - Davey Grant over 1.5 rounds (-140).  Risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit.

BOL to everyone with your plays!!!  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Great plays MR .. I think Yahya might pull off a win, Walter Harris may pull off a upset, and Nate Diaz might out box Maynard as long as he doesn't get KO'd and maybe get a submission off his back because there is no way he is taking Maynard down,

GL tomorrow!!!! 
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
I'm jumpin in board the hammer play
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Mr219. I wonder if you interest to bet with me so we can cut the juice. I believe your unit is $100 & so am I.

I wonder if you heard of Matchbook? We could trade there for 1% fee. There are time our picks is not the same, so we can trade those pick.

example. 5dimes:
Diaz +125
Maynard -135, we could settle on -130 line. I take Diaz for +130

Blanco -175
Akira +165, we could settle on -170. I take Akira at +170

We both save $$$ if we have different picks each card. There is by no mean a rivalry, just trying to save both of us $$$.

Giga
 
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Posted: #6
Nice to see you a couple of weeks ago.  Hope all is well!



 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
having a really hard time not making the p/p parlay an 'all in' parlay. someone talk me out of it? pennington i am not worried about, i suppose as  loose as pena is rakoczy could out move her for 3 rounds and...but i just don't see it.
 Is ten units the most you go on anything? 
reckon i am gonna empty the account tonight. i know it is against "smart wagering for profit" and "anything can happen in MMA" but i am a motherf***ing gambler.

here is hoping i wake up tomorrow hitting a parlay of 
hungover laid and rich
rather than hungover lonely and broke

hell even two out three aint bad. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Theluckyjew:

Great plays MR .. I think Yahya might pull off a win, Walter Harris may pull off a upset, and Nate Diaz might out box Maynard as long as he doesn't get KO'd and maybe get a submission off his back because there is no way he is taking Maynard down,

GL tomorrow!!!! 

All are possibilities...

Except Harris has never faced a world class wreslter like Rosholt before, Yahya runs out of gas after 7 minutes and Maynard has already beaten Diaz by outstriking him (yes, it was controversial).

Anything can happen, but I am comfortable with my plays!

BOL on your plays today!  
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

I'm jumpin in board the hammer play

 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by GigaOuts:

Mr219. I wonder if you interest to bet with me so we can cut the juice. I believe your unit is $100 & so am I.

I wonder if you heard of Matchbook? We could trade there for 1% fee. There are time our picks is not the same, so we can trade those pick.

example. 5dimes:
Diaz +125
Maynard -135, we could settle on -130 line. I take Diaz for +130

Blanco -175
Akira +165, we could settle on -170. I take Akira at +170

We both save $$$ if we have different picks each card. There is by no mean a rivalry, just trying to save both of us $$$.

Giga

I think because MMA lines can fluctuate so wildly from the time a line is released to the time the fight goes off the board, I think we would probably both be better off betting through our existing books, if we time the market correctly.  A 5 cent reduction in a line at a given point in time may not be much of a savings, especially if the line continues to fluctuate after we lock in. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Nice to see you a couple of weeks ago.  Hope all is well!




It was nice to see you as well!  Hopefully I will be back in Vegas this summer!!!  
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by da_don:

having a really hard time not making the p/p parlay an 'all in' parlay. someone talk me out of it? pennington i am not worried about, i suppose as  loose as pena is rakoczy could out move her for 3 rounds and...but i just don't see it.
 Is ten units the most you go on anything? 
reckon i am gonna empty the account tonight. i know it is against "smart wagering for profit" and "anything can happen in MMA" but i am a motherf***ing gambler.

here is hoping i wake up tomorrow hitting a parlay of 
hungover laid and rich
rather than hungover lonely and broke

hell even two out three aint bad. 

Yes, I am confident in the parlay hitting.  However, this is an TUF Finale card, with a lot of inexperienced fighters fighting in the UFC for the first time, so anything can happen.  

10 units ($1,000) is normally my max play on any sporting event.  Gambling is not a race.  I have been doing this for over 20 years.  You will have some good days and some bad days.  You have to remember that there is always another day.  Discipline and money management is very important if you are going to be successful at this in the long run.

So, to answer your question, no, I would not go all in on any bet, no matter how confident you are in a play.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
fair enough. 20 years is definitely more then me. i love the absurdity of this game, and i will follow your lead in 'professionalism" and tomorrow i will be bitter or thankful but regardless i will still have money in the bank.
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by da_don:

fair enough. 20 years is definitely more then me. i love the absurdity of this game, and i will follow your lead in 'professionalism" and tomorrow i will be bitter or thankful but regardless i will still have money in the bank.

I am happy to hear you say this.  

Enjoy the fights!!!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #15
Goodluck MR on a lotta the same with u. Hope u had a good turkey day.
 
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Posted: #16
The best MR219…glad to see that LV allowed you to go home
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Diaz beat the garbage out of Cerrone and Miller. He wins tonight.
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx:

Goodluck MR on a lotta the same with u. Hope u had a good turkey day.

Thanks bud!  BOL on your plays tonight! 
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

The best MR219…glad to see that LV allowed you to go home

Thanks bud! Las Vegas was a blast as always! I wish I was back again this weekend for this particular card!
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by ben_folds:

Diaz beat the garbage out of Cerrone and Miller. He wins tonight.

If Diaz does indeed win tonight it will have nothing to do with the fact that he beat Cerrone and Miller...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
well, they're both better fighters and tougher match ups than Maynard is. Diaz should win.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MR219:


I think because MMA lines can fluctuate so wildly from the time a line is released to the time the fight goes off the board, I think we would probably both be better off betting through our existing books, if we time the market correctly.  A 5 cent reduction in a line at a given point in time may not be much of a savings, especially if the line continues to fluctuate after we lock in. 


I think this is one of your biggest leak in mma betting, line shopping! Casino only need 5% juice to flourish, you under estimate the saving. In a ufc ppv card I am pretty sure I save $500 plus easy but I have close to 100 bets which consist of su, parlay, hedge, prop, etc. All I need to do is save $5 each bet.

example.
6.  Maximo Blanco (-178) over Akira Corassani.  Risking 3.55 units to win 2 units.

I bet/hedge Blanco at -160, if you paid -160, you save $63.90 if Blanco lose. Of course there is no juice if you win but you not always wins.
 
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Posted: #23

I like a lot of what I see here sir!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 286
Posted: #24
Wow, even if the Blanco disqualification bs you are having a great nite. Congrat Mr219. You must love your regular job, if you don't want to do this mma full time, you have a knack for it.......50+ ufc events next year, it will be even busier & hopefully Invicta will survive 2013.  
 
 
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Posted: #25
Just another night of superior MMA capping MR219…congrats and thank you for posting.
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