Thanks WARGOD, I think McGregor & Nelson are both going to get the finish. Both of their opponents are late replacement, and we know both guys are tough opponents to face with a full training camp, so we know going in on short notice is going to be a problem, plus traveling to E.U just makes it a tougher task.
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Quote Originally Posted by WARGOD:
i'm also going large on McGregor & Nelson
hope u win your 1st parlayGL
Thanks WARGOD, I think McGregor & Nelson are both going to get the finish. Both of their opponents are late replacement, and we know both guys are tough opponents to face with a full training camp, so we know going in on short notice is going to be a problem, plus traveling to E.U just makes it a tougher task.
I was on a bad losing streak for a few UFC events, so I'm hoping after UFN 46 I'll be back in the positives. I’m up +25 units for this event (not included in the YTD), with a few more parlays pending. Hopefully these parlays take me out of the hole. I’ll be going big on McGregor and Nelson for these Saturday.
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UFC 2014 YTD (Prior to UFN 45): -31.36 units
I was on a bad losing streak for a few UFC events, so I'm hoping after UFN 46 I'll be back in the positives. I’m up +25 units for this event (not included in the YTD), with a few more parlays pending. Hopefully these parlays take me out of the hole. I’ll be going big on McGregor and Nelson for these Saturday.
Thank you WarGod, Sawman, MpmAgency, and Whipton for the kind words. I look through all your guy's threads too for good info and knowledge. That is one thing I like about this forum, a lot of guys contribute and have great input, plus we all have the same goal.... make some $$$$$.
I've been on such a bad losing streak, it's about time I start pulling it together. I did not update my win-lose (units) on my other threads until yesterday, so you can see the pile up of my past UFC threads. I want to start keeping accurate tabs on all the bets and units and try to contribute to this site as much as I can. I started off doing round robins, but all it took was one fighter to mess it for me, so I'm switching it up to do individual parlays and numbering my plays like Mr219 does, it is a lot better organized and easier to track. Goodluck to you guys this weekend, Go Nelson, Latifi & McGregor!
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Thank you WarGod, Sawman, MpmAgency, and Whipton for the kind words. I look through all your guy's threads too for good info and knowledge. That is one thing I like about this forum, a lot of guys contribute and have great input, plus we all have the same goal.... make some $$$$$.
I've been on such a bad losing streak, it's about time I start pulling it together. I did not update my win-lose (units) on my other threads until yesterday, so you can see the pile up of my past UFC threads. I want to start keeping accurate tabs on all the bets and units and try to contribute to this site as much as I can. I started off doing round robins, but all it took was one fighter to mess it for me, so I'm switching it up to do individual parlays and numbering my plays like Mr219 does, it is a lot better organized and easier to track. Goodluck to you guys this weekend, Go Nelson, Latifi & McGregor!
How likely do you think Nelson is to winning his matchup? The odds seem so heavy on him even though the man he's facing has only lost 3 times.
Nelson vs Cummings
Cummings: TUF Alumni, southpaw, only submitted once (Kennedy), most wins via submission, moved down from middleweight, 6’0 tall (big welterweight), Good submission defense, tough wrestler (but can be taken down), okay cardio, Cuts a lot of weight, slows down in the later rounds. Cummings carries his chin too high and gets hit a lot (although he has never been ko’d).
Nelson: 5’11, 72” reach, “Does not” cut weight (Capable of fighting at lightweight), Renzo BB, ADCC competitor, Karate (unorthodox) striking style (switches stances), beaten other great grapplers (Santiago), finished Akhmedov in the 1st. (Tough Russian who finished almost everyone of his opponents). Pressure fighter who can slowly stalk and walks down opponent to close distance and get a takedown. He has great ground control and transitions with nasty G&P.
Cummings in his last fight was a huge underdog and won the decision over Yan Cabral, but Gunner Nelson is a step up in competition that has a better overall MMA game. Nelson may have problems getting the takedown (initially) against the bigger Cummings. But Nelson will can get the takedown by using his speed advantage to strike and close the distance and keeping the pressure on Cummings. Gunner has fought other fighters who were larger, and I can see Cummings slowing down (cuts a lot of weight) and Nelson softening him up with G&P and getting a submission or KO finish.
Bet: Nelson (too much juice, will parlay)
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Quote Originally Posted by ianangstadt:
How likely do you think Nelson is to winning his matchup? The odds seem so heavy on him even though the man he's facing has only lost 3 times.
Nelson vs Cummings
Cummings: TUF Alumni, southpaw, only submitted once (Kennedy), most wins via submission, moved down from middleweight, 6’0 tall (big welterweight), Good submission defense, tough wrestler (but can be taken down), okay cardio, Cuts a lot of weight, slows down in the later rounds. Cummings carries his chin too high and gets hit a lot (although he has never been ko’d).
Nelson: 5’11, 72” reach, “Does not” cut weight (Capable of fighting at lightweight), Renzo BB, ADCC competitor, Karate (unorthodox) striking style (switches stances), beaten other great grapplers (Santiago), finished Akhmedov in the 1st. (Tough Russian who finished almost everyone of his opponents). Pressure fighter who can slowly stalk and walks down opponent to close distance and get a takedown. He has great ground control and transitions with nasty G&P.
Cummings in his last fight was a huge underdog and won the decision over Yan Cabral, but Gunner Nelson is a step up in competition that has a better overall MMA game. Nelson may have problems getting the takedown (initially) against the bigger Cummings. But Nelson will can get the takedown by using his speed advantage to strike and close the distance and keeping the pressure on Cummings. Gunner has fought other fighters who were larger, and I can see Cummings slowing down (cuts a lot of weight) and Nelson softening him up with G&P and getting a submission or KO finish.
**McGregor, Latifi, & Nelson are all facing late replacement fighters due to injuries**
McGregor vs Brandao:
Looking at the stats I noticed McGregor has a 5 inch reach and a slight height advantage. I can see this fight playing out like a matador vs a bull, with McGregor being the Matador and sidestepping the overly aggressive Brandao with a lead hook and the left body kick to the liver/gut.
Brandao will gas out trying to KO McGregor early and possibly going for a takedown. If Brandao gets a takedown he is suppose to have a better ground game (better credential), but has been dominated on the ground by lesser experienced grapplers (Pineda). I believe Brandao will defeat himself with over-aggressiveness, poor cardio, and adrenaline dump (can’t control emotions). There is no way this fight is going the full five rounds, Brandao can barely go three rounds.
Bet: McGregor wins inside the distance.
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**McGregor, Latifi, & Nelson are all facing late replacement fighters due to injuries**
McGregor vs Brandao:
Looking at the stats I noticed McGregor has a 5 inch reach and a slight height advantage. I can see this fight playing out like a matador vs a bull, with McGregor being the Matador and sidestepping the overly aggressive Brandao with a lead hook and the left body kick to the liver/gut.
Brandao will gas out trying to KO McGregor early and possibly going for a takedown. If Brandao gets a takedown he is suppose to have a better ground game (better credential), but has been dominated on the ground by lesser experienced grapplers (Pineda). I believe Brandao will defeat himself with over-aggressiveness, poor cardio, and adrenaline dump (can’t control emotions). There is no way this fight is going the full five rounds, Brandao can barely go three rounds.
Pickett did not look impressive in his flyweight debut, and won a scrappy decision to a large (but tough) underdog in Seery. Pickett looked really drawn out after cutting down to flyweight and I think it has affected his performance. McCall has a speed advantage and has fought the best in the flyweight division. Pickett has the strength and power advantage, but I can see McCall using his speed and footwork to outpoint Pickett for a decision. But both fighters have been inconsistent with putting together a winning a streak in the UFC, so it is hard for me to really pick a decisive winner. But I don’t see either fighter getting a finish, so the safe bet would be the over.
Winner: McCall Decision
Bet: Over 2 ½ rounds
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Uncle Creepy vs Pickett:
Pickett did not look impressive in his flyweight debut, and won a scrappy decision to a large (but tough) underdog in Seery. Pickett looked really drawn out after cutting down to flyweight and I think it has affected his performance. McCall has a speed advantage and has fought the best in the flyweight division. Pickett has the strength and power advantage, but I can see McCall using his speed and footwork to outpoint Pickett for a decision. But both fighters have been inconsistent with putting together a winning a streak in the UFC, so it is hard for me to really pick a decisive winner. But I don’t see either fighter getting a finish, so the safe bet would be the over.
Most Japanese fighters have a hard time adapting to the octagon rules and environment. This will be Kotani second UFC run, losing twice in the UFC to Siver and Tavares in 2007. Kotani has 50 pro fights and has fought primarily in Japan against numerous veterans (mostly loses).
Parke is a TUF winner with a judo background with a unorthodox striking style. Parke has looked impressive and had a draw with Santos in his last match, but he should win this fight via decision.
Prediction: Parke Decision
Bet: Parke -325
Latifi vs Dempsey
Dempsey is coming in on 2 week notice to fight for the 1st time in the big show. He only has 1 loss via submission in his 2 ½ years as a pro. Most fights have been in his home state of Pennsylvania, I don't see him going over seas on short notice and beating the hard hitting Latifi. I see Latifi finishing this fight with his G&P.
Prediction: Latifi via KO rd 1
Bet: Latifi -195 & Latifi (W.I.D) +100
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Parke vs Kotani
Most Japanese fighters have a hard time adapting to the octagon rules and environment. This will be Kotani second UFC run, losing twice in the UFC to Siver and Tavares in 2007. Kotani has 50 pro fights and has fought primarily in Japan against numerous veterans (mostly loses).
Parke is a TUF winner with a judo background with a unorthodox striking style. Parke has looked impressive and had a draw with Santos in his last match, but he should win this fight via decision.
Prediction: Parke Decision
Bet: Parke -325
Latifi vs Dempsey
Dempsey is coming in on 2 week notice to fight for the 1st time in the big show. He only has 1 loss via submission in his 2 ½ years as a pro. Most fights have been in his home state of Pennsylvania, I don't see him going over seas on short notice and beating the hard hitting Latifi. I see Latifi finishing this fight with his G&P.
We have a 2010 rematch with the first fight ending in a decision win for Harris. Seery is tough and scrappy Irishman who held his own against Pickett in his UFC debut (as a huge underdog). I know Harris will try to get this fight to the ground, but I can see Seery using a sprawling and brawling style to get the win. I would normally go with Harris for the decision. Rematches usually end with a finish, so I’m one the fence about taking the under 2 ½ rounds for a small underdog bet. But I will avoid the bet, but I’m taking Seery, the hometown boy to avenge his earlier loss via KO.
Prediction: Seery via KO rd 1
Bet: Avoid
Pendred vs King
TUF Penn teammates are going up against each other. I didn’t watch this past season, so I had to look online for info. Pendred (-165) usually fights as a welterweight and he holds wins over Musoke and Che Mills. Pendred has more than twice the experience as King who is 5-0. Pendred went 1-1 in the TUF house at 185lb, so I’m curious to see how he does at his new weight class in front of his home crowd. Pendred should do enough to get the decision infront of the home crowd.
Prediction: Pendred decision
Bet: Pendred -165
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Harris vs Seery
We have a 2010 rematch with the first fight ending in a decision win for Harris. Seery is tough and scrappy Irishman who held his own against Pickett in his UFC debut (as a huge underdog). I know Harris will try to get this fight to the ground, but I can see Seery using a sprawling and brawling style to get the win. I would normally go with Harris for the decision. Rematches usually end with a finish, so I’m one the fence about taking the under 2 ½ rounds for a small underdog bet. But I will avoid the bet, but I’m taking Seery, the hometown boy to avenge his earlier loss via KO.
Prediction: Seery via KO rd 1
Bet: Avoid
Pendred vs King
TUF Penn teammates are going up against each other. I didn’t watch this past season, so I had to look online for info. Pendred (-165) usually fights as a welterweight and he holds wins over Musoke and Che Mills. Pendred has more than twice the experience as King who is 5-0. Pendred went 1-1 in the TUF house at 185lb, so I’m curious to see how he does at his new weight class in front of his home crowd. Pendred should do enough to get the decision infront of the home crowd.
Troeng I think is the better-rounded MMA figthter, but Smith has fought the tougher competition and he should be able to survive for all three rounds. I don’t see either guy getting a finish under 1 ½ rounds, so I’ll take the over. I see Troeng getting the decision over the tough Smith.
Prediction: Troeng Decision
Bet: Over 1 ½ rounds -165
Donovan vs Krylov
Both fighters have the power to end the night early, just depends who lands first. Donovan has been KO’d in his last 2 fights and Krylov was just submitted in his light heavy weight debut. Both fighters have been put to sleep by OSP recently, and I think the safe bet is taking the under for one of these guys to go to sleep early.
Prediction: Krylov via KO rd 1
Bet: Under 1 ½ rounds -180 & Krylov (W.I.D +125)
Sampo vs Holohan
Holohan is a TUF vet who lost his fight to get in the house by being outwrestled and losing via decision. Sampo is an All-American college wrestler who holds wins over Alexis Vila, and Antonio Banuelos. He will use his wrestling to dominate this fighting and nullify the submission attempts. I see Sampo dominating the ground and getting a submission victory. I really like Sampo and I will be putting him in a few parlays.
Prediction: Sampo via Submission rd 1
Bet: Sampo -225 (got him earlier at -195)
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Troeng vs Smith
Troeng I think is the better-rounded MMA figthter, but Smith has fought the tougher competition and he should be able to survive for all three rounds. I don’t see either guy getting a finish under 1 ½ rounds, so I’ll take the over. I see Troeng getting the decision over the tough Smith.
Prediction: Troeng Decision
Bet: Over 1 ½ rounds -165
Donovan vs Krylov
Both fighters have the power to end the night early, just depends who lands first. Donovan has been KO’d in his last 2 fights and Krylov was just submitted in his light heavy weight debut. Both fighters have been put to sleep by OSP recently, and I think the safe bet is taking the under for one of these guys to go to sleep early.
Prediction: Krylov via KO rd 1
Bet: Under 1 ½ rounds -180 & Krylov (W.I.D +125)
Sampo vs Holohan
Holohan is a TUF vet who lost his fight to get in the house by being outwrestled and losing via decision. Sampo is an All-American college wrestler who holds wins over Alexis Vila, and Antonio Banuelos. He will use his wrestling to dominate this fighting and nullify the submission attempts. I see Sampo dominating the ground and getting a submission victory. I really like Sampo and I will be putting him in a few parlays.
I did not know that Gunner doesn't cut weight.... interesting.
I didn't know that either??? They mentioned it in one of his fights, so I had to look it up and found some stuff. He says he cuts some, but not much like most people.
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Quote Originally Posted by sawman:
I did not know that Gunner doesn't cut weight.... interesting.
I didn't know that either??? They mentioned it in one of his fights, so I had to look it up and found some stuff. He says he cuts some, but not much like most people.
Damn Sampo! That was a bad start for the night, the chase is officially on!!!! Maybe fighting the Irish in their homeland is the same as fighting the Brazilians in their homeland, bet on the hometown boy. Adding a parlay that will go into the next UFC event:
18. Latifi (-265) + Nelson (-590) + McGregor (-525) + Lawler (-320) = (+151.69) adding 3 units for 4.55 units
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Damn Sampo! That was a bad start for the night, the chase is officially on!!!! Maybe fighting the Irish in their homeland is the same as fighting the Brazilians in their homeland, bet on the hometown boy. Adding a parlay that will go into the next UFC event:
18. Latifi (-265) + Nelson (-590) + McGregor (-525) + Lawler (-320) = (+151.69) adding 3 units for 4.55 units
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