Posted:
#1
Parlay $50 to win $1,042
Godofredo Pepey +472Thomas Almeida via KO/TKO +282
Parlay $25 to win $10,122
Godofredo Pepey +472
Thomas Almeida via KO/TKO +282
Darren Elkins by decision +416
Weidman inside distance +260
I think Pepey is a super good value bet here. I would have prop-bet him inside the distance but 5dimes has an erroneous line, inside distance +445 but straight up +472. I might throw some more on a submission prop, cause that's how I think he gets it done. He is vicious on the feet but isn't as good defensively, and with a marksman like Burgos I think Pepey gets this win as his 4th straight by submission.
Elkins by decision seems so obvious to me... Nevermind the Bektic knockout, Darren Elkins is a decision grinder. One of the best at grinding decisions.
I don't feel quite as strongly about Almeida and Weidman. Almeida is a striker's delight, a real knockout artist. Jimmie Rivera is not Cody Garbrandt. I think Almeida has a good chance of dragging him into a war and getting the knockout, moving back into top contendership. Frankly it baffles me that Jimmie Rivera is ranked #4 at 20-1 with Almeida ranked #9 at 21-1. They have similar records in that they're beating similarly skilled competition, with Almeida's only loss coming to an elite Cody Garbrandt. I just think Almeida will make a statement here and hand Rivera his first KO loss.
There's reason to be down on Wiedman, coming off 3 KO losses and b-tching out in the Gegard fight. But Weidman is still elite, has beaten elites, and only lost to elites. Is Kelvin elite? He definitely could be, but he hasn't proven it yet. His 2 wins at 185 were against Kennedy and Belfort. Hardly comparable to Weidman. Fighting at home in Long Island and his future hanging in the balance, I think Weidman gets a resurgent win. I think we might be in store for the rare Weidman submission.
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