All Forums | MLB Betting

10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3951
Posts: 69
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 425
Posted: #51

Go get em tomorrow Si1ly!  I told you I had concerns about Greinke on the road, but ran with you anyway because I believe in your capping abilities.  Bump in the road buddy. 

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2005
Posts: 5849
Posted: #52
next time when you put up stats, make sure you include that greinke sucks on the road and he 0-2 with a 6.00 era against arizona! this way you won't lead everybody down the wrong road!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 688
Posted: #53





 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2009
Posts: 1782
Posted: #54
Guys, take it easy!!!! Sily is a good capper it's one effing game.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Perfect example of why writeups are tools of salesmen



Write-ups are a way of explaining to the covers community the logic behind my bet.  I let my posted winning percentage sell itself.  What people chose to do with my wager or the information I provide is totally up to them.  I only win or lose my own money.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Go get em tomorrow Si1ly!  I told you I had concerns about Greinke on the road, but ran with you anyway because I believe in your capping abilities.  Bump in the road buddy. 



I don't put a ton of stock in home/road performance.  It's baseball, it's not like the NBA where home court means a lot.  If Greinke continues to stay high on my SABRmetric rankings, I will be backing him again on the road.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #57
10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125) 

Miley started his regression but man did Greinke suck this one up!  Baseball is a long season, I certainly don't expect to win them all.  There will be plenty of times where the game doesn't even come close to going as I predicted... lets just hope that happens less than the times that it does.


'11-12 MLB:  3-2 (54.4%)  +0.43u
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 681
Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125) 

Miley started his regression but man did Greinke suck this one up!  Baseball is a long season, I certainly don't expect to win them all.  There will be plenty of times where the game doesn't even come close to going as I predicted... lets just hope that happens less than the times that it does.


'11-12 MLB:  3-2 (54.4%)  +0.43u


Yes, I have to admit this one hurt, but still in the plus +++ and that's all that matters. THANK YOU si1ly!!!

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #59
The fucking tolerance you need to post on these forums is just getting ridiculous.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 27785
Posted: #60

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

10:10 EST - Milwaukee Brewers (-125) 

Miley started his regression but man did Greinke suck this one up!  Baseball is a long season, I certainly don't expect to win them all.  There will be plenty of times where the game doesn't even come close to going as I predicted... lets just hope that happens less than the times that it does.


'11-12 MLB:  3-2 (54.4%)  +0.43u


baseball is 95% luck...10 % skill

Whoever is luckier on the day wins..

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 1037
Posted: #61
just got to ignore some posts and posters. gl
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 2157
Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:



I don't put a ton of stock in home/road performance.  It's baseball, it's not like the NBA where home court means a lot.  If Greinke continues to stay high on my SABRmetric rankings, I will be backing him again on the road.


I don't see how you can't put much stock in home/road performance when his stats clearly show he's a much better pitcher at home than on the road since joining the National League.  Even if you discount the splits, athletes naturally feel more comfortable at home and have particular routines they fall into, not to mention the confines of stadiums having an effect on performance as well. 

I like your write-ups and feel you do a good job of providing in-depth analysis.  I'm just puzzled as to why you'd be so dismissive of splits for statistics.  There's definitely relevance to them.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:



I don't see how you can't put much stock in home/road performance when his stats clearly show he's a much better pitcher at home than on the road since joining the National League.  Even if you discount the splits, athletes naturally feel more comfortable at home and have particular routines they fall into, not to mention the confines of stadiums having an effect on performance as well. 

I like your write-ups and feel you do a good job of providing in-depth analysis.  I'm just puzzled as to why you'd be so dismissive of splits for statistics.  There's definitely relevance to them.


When I say I don't put a lot of stock into home/road splits, doesn't mean I don't look at them at all... it just means that when the bet looks good enough on paper otherwise, I don't let poor road splits, or great home splits influence me otherwise.  There are many more aspects to handicapping a baseball game that are more important in the hierarchy of sabrmetric handicapping.

I agree with everything you're saying though.  It does make a difference, just not as much in baseball as other sports, and not enough to sway me to the other side.  If anything I might lay off a wager I liked because of poor road splits or whatever.. but tonight the numbers presented themselves in such a way that it didn't seem to matter.  Clearly it did, but hindsight is always 20-20.  I didn't think it would make that much of a difference given the fact that I thought Miley would implode tonight.  I didn't even think Greinke needed to pitch that great of a ballgame.  Just so happened he pitched horribly.  Tough shit, time to move on.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 12061
Posted: #64
Speaking of moving on... here's tomorrow's card for those of you scalping the best lines:

TEXAS RANGERS -1 (-142)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-110)


Leaning on COLORADO +141 and CLE@CHW OVER 9.

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #65
GL Si1ly 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 2153
Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Perfect example of why writeups are tools of salesmen

I bet AZ. Grienke normally sucks on the road and figured his luck had run its course.  That means everyone who bet Manurewaulkie =

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 5555
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Speaking of moving on... here's tomorrow's card for those of you scalping the best lines:

TEXAS RANGERS -1 (-142)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-110)


Leaning on COLORADO +141 and CLE@CHW OVER 9.

Don't forget Wash. When Chipper doesn't play they are 7-14 and with him they are 19-5
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 425
Posted: #68
Best of luck today Si!ly!  Like the early card.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 133
Posted: #69
funny how smart people are after the game is played--get-em today
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.