🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

3 more WINNERS! 

Another WINNER

So far today,

6 - 2    +2.7u    (4 -2 *BB)

pending....Dodgers -322 *BB
pending....Mia/LAD ov 7 -142

Wednesday, May 08: (mostly Pinnacle overnights)

SF/COL un 10.5 -120 @Bet365 overnight
Angels +126        *BB
Phillies -153         *BB
OAK G1 +105
Yankees -145       *BB
Tor/Phil ov 8 -128

Tuesday, May 07: (overnight lines, mostly pinnacle)

 L  Orioles -198                     *BB
W  Yankees -114                   *BB
W  Cubbies -145                   *BB
W  Mets +109                       *BB
 L  Hou/NYY und 9 -141          *BB
W  Tor/Philly ov 8.0 -108        *BB
W  Tor/Philly ov 7.0 -168 alt
push LAA/Pitt un 9.0 -142 alt
W  LIVE BET: Rangers -150
W  Dodgers  -322                  *BB
W  Mia/LAD ov 7 -142

= 8 - 2  +4.70u    (5 -2 *BB)

YTD:  42 - 30 - 3   +10.61u    (23 - 16 *BB)

Well done fubah 

The offensively challenged Cardinals lose their top slugger!

@fubah2

 gl  today   

Looking like Phillies SP NOLA is goiong to end the Phillies winning streak today...

Top of the 6th and he's allowed 4 hits and 2 runs in this HALF inning.

Schhpplitt  1 - 1 - 1  -0.27 so far

.... 3 bets pending

Note: I believe this marks a slight uptick in Toronto performances for the next several games, until their next slump.

Phillies still OK.  No downturn anticipated.

Another small profit   3 - 2 - 1  +0.58u  (2 - 1 *BB)

Thursday, May 09:

KC/LAA ov 8 -119 *BB (pinnacle overnight)

My system also indicates Dbacks, Giants and Guardians but I'm PASSING on those.

Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well.  But therein lies the problem!  If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing!  He's due for one any game-start now.  So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway...

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

Good luck on today's plays fubah. 

Agree with that over play. 

@Coloneljim

Hopefully it pays off, but I'm going to play the odds going in, regardless.

In my KC/LAA ov 8 bet I have the offenses roughly equal, IN THIS PARTICULAR VENUE, withestimated NET GAME PITCHING value scored as worse than average (suggesting scoring!!)   My capping suggests a game total of 9 runs (mean), but the  "most probable range" (MPR) at 7 - 11 runs (with 9 runs being the center)

My MPR suggests the game total is very highly to fall somewhere within these:  

7    8p    9    10    11

An over 8 bet means I would win outright on three of them, push on one (which is fine by me!) and lose only on one of the five!

This does not guarantee a winner! But if my run assessment is reasonably close to accurate [always the key, but my MPR offers a cushion] then I believe this stands a 60% chance of winning v. only a 20% chance of losing

Also, take note, that I strongly prefer totals on an integer (no 1/2 totals) because for example if I played an over 8.5 (rather than 8.0) then within my MPR, two would lose instead of just one in five. Over time this difference adds up!

No promises though!.....I'm just playing the probabilities here....

Quote Originally Posted by bonfire69:

Thank you, and BoL with your bets today!

They are the better team, so it's possible!

Leaning to YANKEES, but prefer a better line....

@fubah2

   luv the analysis on the over 8 in the royals-angels game

will tail u again and bet that over 8         thks 

As I suggested above in post #187 I strongly believed it was wise to stay away from betting ON A GILBERT START due to the fact that his lucky HOT STREAK of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a single BAD outing could come to an abrupt end at any time.

It just did. 

Through only 4 innings, the Mariners ACE starter, was tagged for 9 hits and 2 walks, including 8 earned runs!!

He's still a VERY GOOD starter, make no mistake!!  So I will consider his starts without restrictions going forward, now that he got that inevitable BAD OUTING out of the way...and will disregard it as an inevitable "one-off"

WINNER!!

BoL with your bets today, fellas!  

May 9, 2024
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Thursday that catcher Wilson Contreras is likely to be sidelined for about 10 weeks after successful surgery Wednesday to repair a fractured left forearm