St. Louis Cardinals OVER 91.5 -110 Wins 3u (max) play
Locking this one in now as it is my favorite and I cannot see getting a better number. This team won 97 games last year, and I will tell you why I think they are better.
My projected lineup: 1) Carpenter 3B 2) Wong 2B 3) Holliday LF 4) Craig RF 5) Adams 1B 6) Molina C 7) Peralta SS 8) Bourjos CF
I think this lineup (hitting wise) is better than their lineup last year. Yes, they lost Beltran, but if you remember in the playoffs with the surge of Matt Adams they had an extra hitter that they didn't have a spot for (ended up Craig as DH in WS when he was back from his injury). Also, I love what they did to their middle infield. I believe that Wong (one of their top prospects) wins the 2B job out of spring as he fits perfectly into their 2 hole. I also really like the Peralta signing. Those 2 are great offensive upgrades over Kozma and Schumaker. This lineup is now loaded top to bottom.
DIsclaimer: I would be dumb to ignore the impact on their defense though. Craig will be a below average RF'er and well as Peralta at SS, but it really isn't much of a concern to me.
My projected SP: 1) Wainwright 2) Miller 3) Wacha 4) Kelly 5) Lynn
This is what I really love about this team. IMO, the best rotation in the majors. Kelly quietly put together a great end of the season. Lynn struggled towards the end as well as Miller to an extent, but that doesn't worry me since both were young arms who had never thrown that many innings in a season before. It is pretty common for them to break down a bit. If this rotation stays relatively healthy I think the Cardinals have the best record in the league. They also can afford to take it easy with Jaime Garcia coming off an arm injury by easing him back into action.
Depth: It is one thing to stack your starters, but it a whole another thing to have depth. This is crucial in the long MLB season and I think the Cardinals have some of the best depth in the league. Their bench will consist of Mark Ellis, Jon Jay, Descalso, Cruz, and Robinson (not to mention their top prospect Tavares who is waiting to steal CF from Bourjos/Jay). This team is oozing with talents and options.
Bullpen: This team showed in the playoffs how good of young arms they have in the pen between Rosenthal, Martinez, Siegriest, and Maness. Throw it specialist Choate and Neshek as well as a possibly of Motte coming back from Tommy John and this pen is loaded.
Another little reason I like this play is that i expect the division to be worse as a whole as I believe both the Pirates and Reds will regress and not have nearly as good of years as they did last year.
In conclusion, I think a 97 win from a year ago improved in overall talent and in depth. I fully expect the Cardinals to be the best team in baseball this year and go over the century mark in wins. Normally I wouldn't be so confident on any total over 90 wins, but the pitching this team possesses mixed with their extraordinary depth allows me to think otherwise in this instance.
Take whatever you want from this write-up. Just informing the reasons I made the play. Hope this helps some of you out. More to come. Cheers.
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