Quote Originally Posted by diztant:
one more question bro if you don't mind...
how do you choose the games you play? based on what i gathered from the information you provided...basically every game will have a better % quality starts on your program. how do you choose which ones to play?
thanks <3
Every capper has their own method whether its stats trends line movement......I set out to combine all 3 when I cap with the aid of a capping tool program
1. Check the games with RLM (reverse line movement). You can google RLM. Run the program with the 2 teams matched up which is simulated 100 times to see which team has the advantage stat wise and trend wise. I use a star system so if a matchup is 1 or 2 stars I don't even touch the game. Basically its a coin flip game no team has an edge. If I see a 3 star advantage for a team and the RLM is in favor for the other team Ill take the other team. Reason being is why the 3 star team which is clearly better going from favorite to dog? The books opened 3 star team as a favorite and all the sudden they at dogs?
Now if team is a 5 star advantage I gotta ignore RLM and go with the favorite. My theory is the books are trying to trick you into thinking the RLM is the play.
For example the Dodgers game last night. There was RLM movement for the dodgers. But the program had a 5 star with the diamondbacks. Diamondbacks were that strong of a team last night so why bet against them? Books tricked and people fell for the bait
. If the diamondbacks were a 3 star I would have went dodgers as I mentioned earlier with 3 star plays.
3. Look at any dogs with value. For example the cubs today were -180 and were only 3 star advantage. Shouldn't they be a 5 star you would think with a line that big they should be a 5 star advantage number and trend wise.
. I also use the program to simulate chance of a quality start. Simulate the game 100 times with all the numbers against batter numbers and get a percentage of simulated quality start. For example.....Cubs and braves game....
Lackey simulated to have a 32% start and foly 28%.
Numbers wise it makes sense because lackey with a 4 era against a braves team who rely on average hitting and not the long ball lackey should not have a huge advantage. Only problem is braves only had 4 hits all game which as a capper the numbers are there but you cannot do anything about atrocious hitting.
So the numbers were there for the braves its just the hitters simply did not show up but don't regret the play because as a capper you CANNOT regret playing dogs with VALUE. For example the reds game yesterday was VALUE and it hit for $2500 and today I lost $1000 on the braves not a bad play at ALL.
Key is play Key matchup games with RLM and Value dogs and stay away from high lines. Its not worth the risk to lay -170 to break your bankroll. Yes your gonna lose value dog plays but it doesn't break the bank like the braves game today. As long as your hitting those 5 star key games throught the season hopefully we should be good
why??
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