3 Wednesday w/analysis

Miami +126 over ATLANTA (1st 5 innings) 12:10 PM EST. Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph was tops among starters in 2013. Couple that with a promising swinging strike rate and his K rate has plenty of room to grow. We’re seeing so many good growing signs in Eovaldi’s profile this season. His walks are way down and his K’s are way up. In 25 innings, Eovaldi has walked three while whiffing 23. He also has an elite 54% groundball rate to go along with an xERA of 3.07.

Almost a month into the season and it’s time we can begin to look for some sell-high opportunities on some pitchers with great surface stats but lousy skills. Enter Aaron Harang. Harang is the only starting pitcher with 25+ IP in the NL who has a sub-1.00 ERA. Some folks might see that as a buying opportunity, especially given his new team and its success with pitching. Don't follow suit. Harang's skills have been horrible with a 25% groundball rate, a 54% fly-ball rate and 12 walks in 26 innings. No starter has been helped more than Harang’s 16% hit rate, 90% strand rate and 0% hr/f. It can’t last and coming off a game in which he threw 121 innings in seven frames and no-hit the Mets, it’s time Harang got exposed for the very below average pitcher he is. It’s one game and anything can happen but we’ll continue to fade Harang as the chalk because there are a string of implosions forthcoming and it’s a distinct possibility that the first one occurs here.

Baltimore -105 over TORONTO (1st 5 innings) Dustin McGowan cannot be favored over Chris Tillman. In three starts, McGowan has lasted a combined 13 innings. He happened to stifle the Orioles back in Baltimore a couple of starts ago when he went 6.1 frames and didn’t allow a run. That was under extremely favorable weather conditions but lightning will not strike twice, especially indoors at the Air Canada Center. McGowan has a 1.92 WHIP to go along with a BAA of .333. This is a guy who has had multiple shoulder surgeries since 2008 and has only pitched a total of 69 innings over the past 5+ years with most of those coming last season in relief. McGowan is like a lame racehorse that is ready to pull up at any second and his chances of another successful outing against the Orioles is extremely low. Thus far, McGowan's dominance has dropped from the 9.1 K’s/9 that he displayed last season to 5.5 this year and he has continued to issue free passes at a high clip. His ground ball rate has dropped from 47% last season to 35% in the early going. Meanwhile, the Orioles are leading the AL with a .296 BA.

Chris Tillman had a fine follow-up last year to his surprising '12, and this may just be the start. There are simply so many encouraging nuggets in the rather gaudy across-the-board second half skills growth. Groundballs, strikeouts and swinging K rate are all up and control improved also. Of course, doing it over a full season is another challenge but age & this growth suggest far more upside than down. We’re not missing an opportunity to fade McGowan because his skills are among the worst in the league.

COLORADO -101 over San Francisco If the better pitcher won every game we’d all be rich. Matt Cain has an edge over Tyler Chatwood but that’s not going to prevent us from backing the Rockies and their 8-3 record at home. In fact, the Rockies are hitting a robust .346 at Coors and against righties that average is even higher at .369. The Rockies have won four of their last five home games while scoring 34 runs over that span. The Giants have scored three runs in the first two games of this series against a couple of back-end starters. Things don’t get easier here for San Fran against Chatwood.

Chatwood went 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 111 IP for the Rockies last season. A high groundball rate continued to trend up and he only allowed more than 2 ER in just two of first 14 starts. Chatwood spent August on the DL with a sore elbow and upon his return his skills were weaker in September but all-in-all it was a solid growth year. A low fly-ball % minimizes his downside and given his age, 1st half of last year may be for real. In two starts this year, Chatwood has walked one batter and struck out 11 in 13 frames. His surface stats are fully supported by his elite 56% groundball rate and 11% swinging strike rate. The Rockies are seeing beach balls while the Giants are seeing BB’s and now we get Colorado at home as a pooch. Yeah, that works. 

Miami +126 over ATLANTA (1st 5 innings) 12:10 PM EST. Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph was tops among starters in 2013. Couple that with a promising swinging strike rate and his K rate has plenty of room to grow. We’re seeing so many good growing signs in Eovaldi’s profile this season. His walks are way down and his K’s are way up. In 25 innings, Eovaldi has walked three while whiffing 23. He also has an elite 54% groundball rate to go along with an xERA of 3.07.

Almost a month into the season and it’s time we can begin to look for some sell-high opportunities on some pitchers with great surface stats but lousy skills. Enter Aaron Harang. Harang is the only starting pitcher with 25+ IP in the NL who has a sub-1.00 ERA. Some folks might see that as a buying opportunity, especially given his new team and its success with pitching. Don't follow suit. Harang's skills have been horrible with a 25% groundball rate, a 54% fly-ball rate and 12 walks in 26 innings. No starter has been helped more than Harang’s 16% hit rate, 90% strand rate and 0% hr/f. It can’t last and coming off a game in which he threw 121 innings in seven frames and no-hit the Mets, it’s time Harang got exposed for the very below average pitcher he is. It’s one game and anything can happen but we’ll continue to fade Harang as the chalk because there are a string of implosions forthcoming and it’s a distinct possibility that the first one occurs here.

Baltimore -105 over TORONTO (1st 5 innings) Dustin McGowan cannot be favored over Chris Tillman. In three starts, McGowan has lasted a combined 13 innings. He happened to stifle the Orioles back in Baltimore a couple of starts ago when he went 6.1 frames and didn’t allow a run. That was under extremely favorable weather conditions but lightning will not strike twice, especially indoors at the Air Canada Center. McGowan has a 1.92 WHIP to go along with a BAA of .333. This is a guy who has had multiple shoulder surgeries since 2008 and has only pitched a total of 69 innings over the past 5+ years with most of those coming last season in relief. McGowan is like a lame racehorse that is ready to pull up at any second and his chances of another successful outing against the Orioles is extremely low. Thus far, McGowan's dominance has dropped from the 9.1 K’s/9 that he displayed last season to 5.5 this year and he has continued to issue free passes at a high clip. His ground ball rate has dropped from 47% last season to 35% in the early going. Meanwhile, the Orioles are leading the AL with a .296 BA.

Chris Tillman had a fine follow-up last year to his surprising '12, and this may just be the start. There are simply so many encouraging nuggets in the rather gaudy across-the-board second half skills growth. Groundballs, strikeouts and swinging K rate are all up and control improved also. Of course, doing it over a full season is another challenge but age & this growth suggest far more upside than down. We’re not missing an opportunity to fade McGowan because his skills are among the worst in the league.

COLORADO -101 over San Francisco If the better pitcher won every game we’d all be rich. Matt Cain has an edge over Tyler Chatwood but that’s not going to prevent us from backing the Rockies and their 8-3 record at home. In fact, the Rockies are hitting a robust .346 at Coors and against righties that average is even higher at .369. The Rockies have won four of their last five home games while scoring 34 runs over that span. The Giants have scored three runs in the first two games of this series against a couple of back-end starters. Things don’t get easier here for San Fran against Chatwood.

Chatwood went 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 111 IP for the Rockies last season. A high groundball rate continued to trend up and he only allowed more than 2 ER in just two of first 14 starts. Chatwood spent August on the DL with a sore elbow and upon his return his skills were weaker in September but all-in-all it was a solid growth year. A low fly-ball % minimizes his downside and given his age, 1st half of last year may be for real. In two starts this year, Chatwood has walked one batter and struck out 11 in 13 frames. His surface stats are fully supported by his elite 56% groundball rate and 11% swinging strike rate. The Rockies are seeing beach balls while the Giants are seeing BB’s and now we get Colorado at home as a pooch. Yeah, that works. 

Jays play at Rogers Centre not ACC(that's Leafs n Raps).

Like all 3 picks BOL.