4/20/16 - Early Under

MLB – 2016

12-13, $ -213.08, – 0.0426% RoR

4/19 Flat $200.00

Cubs-Cardinals, Under 4, First 5, -122, Hendricks/Martinez

Each of these guys has given two quality starts to date and has a low whip and good ground ball ratio, which is important since there will probably be a 13 mph breeze out toward left field. The game will start in cloudy weather with rain possible later, so we definitely want to go 5 innings and be done with it. We have Sam Holbrook behind the plate, who has been a relatively neutral guy in the past but so far this year (in only 3 games) he has been vicious toward the hitters with a 64.52% strike call rate and a 4.42:1 K/BB rate. That could be significant with the Cubs having struck out 13 times last night and the Cardinals almost matching them with 11.

More later, but I have things to do this morning and the other game I have my eye on is an evening game.

BOL

Nationals +106, Ross/Chen

Yes, the Nats have now avenged their earlier loss to Conley and took batting practice versus that lefty last night. Chen must have impressed the betting public with his last outing versus the Braves but the Tigers swiped his lunch and sent him packing, and the Nats projected offense versus lefty is much more similar to the Tigers than the Braves. If I split his two outings to date, guess where Chen lands. Yep, right where I have him rated based on past performance and future probability. I guess bettors expect the Marlins to avenge their earlier loss to Ross, but that is not a given and occurs more often in urban legend than in reality. Ross entered this season with a better prospectus than Chen and has shown no reason for me to downgrade him.

BOL