MLB – 2016
1-3, -418.18
4/7 Flat $200.00
Rangers +107, Holland/Santiago
Both of these guys had a respectable spring but for past performance and
projected results I have to lean toward Holland. Couple that with the Rangers
versus lefties overall and the Angels versus the same and I think we have a
false favorite here.
BOL
The rain is
supposed to diminish to just cloudy by game time then move back to showers late
and is not supposed to rain again until quite late.
Holland surrendered
4 earned runs in 14.1 versus the Angels last year for a 2.51 era and 2 wins,
both late in the season. He was the winning pitcher both home and away and the
win at Anaheim was 8 innings, 1 earned run. If you want to include results
prior to last year you are tossing in 2013 and before, when neither he nor the
Angels were exactly the same as they are now. I don’t do that. Recent performance
is important, 2013 is ancient history. “Career
versus” is one of the worst handicapping stats available.
The only real option here is to handicap the handicapper, decide that you and your trends, career stats, angles, home field advantage etc., outweigh the knowledge and computations about the game than the guy you are reading, therefore fading him is a good idea. BOL
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