5 Inning Discussion Thread - SUNDAY 8-16-09

I've observed we do very well when there's an early thread, and lots of discussion --

And not so well when there's not or we don't.

So here we go -- onward to Sunday...

I'm laying off Detroit -- Kyle Davies for KC seems like one of those weird guys who's better on the road.

Colorado and Florida, I don't like the possibility of rejiggered pitching assingments and the like, so that is a lay off too.

Baltimore, don't laugh, but Guthrie is halfway decent at home.  I suppose the over makes more sense in this game, though.

Likewise I don't see what you do with San Francisco and the Mets.  Both pitchers pretty bad, both offenses pretty bad. 

Tampa and Toronto looks like a good game.  Rumplestilskin or whatever his name is for Jays is okay, but Tampa has gotten sticking again -- I like them in this one.

The Reds should be able to bounce back and beat Lannan on the road, but I don't get too excited about these games with no meaning; kind of hard to pick.

I don't know what you do with Tazawa and Nippert in Boston at Texas either.  Maybe wish them all luck.

You had two pitchers who have been pretty weak this year going on St. Louis, Richard and Lohse.  Maybe the Padres pick one off but the odds don't seem very generous considering the team matchup.

Cubs -- Harden has not been very good at home for them, but his last couple starts at Wrigley were fine.  I think you like him over Ohlendorf.

Danks (White Sox) has never lost to Oakland.  For me (I tend to bet the home team, or lay off a game), that makes it a no brainer to not bet.  But some of you might like Chicago.

LA-Arizona, hard to figure out Arizona's Petit, and Arizona's team. 

Mariners -- Chamberlain is due for a loss as are Yankees; I like Seattle first 5 and for 9 innings. 

Phillies-Braves looks like an under, and looks like the total will be 4 or 4.5 for the first 5 -- not bad.

Chris -- and Homer -- Aramis Ramirez did play for Cubs Saturday, so you know.  He only pinch hit, but he is back in uniform.  No indication on Sunday.

Yes, I know, I saw that in another thread.  Thanks.

Harden-Cubs -- in addition to his bad home-away split, he's been poor in day games.  It's especially bad this year, and Piniella has tried to avoid scheduling him during the days, but is there for the career as well. 

Of course we can get too cute with all these splits.  Cubs are much bettter team, at home, Ohlendorf weak on the road.  But it's something to consider. 

Here's some cautionary background on Guthrie for Baltimore:

ERA home: 4.8
ERA away: 6.1
ERA night: 6.4
ERA day: 2.8

Thanks, Chris -- good information.

I guess tha'ts why Baltimore is favored slightly (on Guthrie.)

This checks out pretty well in terms of the matchup -- Vasquez and Happ have pitched well against the opponent. 

Of course there have been some lineup changes in recent weeks, but not a complete overhaul.