(59-51) -4.31 units in 14 days

Feels like some progress has been made but still have not been able to find that breakout day.

I should have gone ahead and followed my analysis on Detroit and taken them.  Got busy with a project and totally missed the start of the game.

Another nice underdog there.

The Devil Rays/O's series might be tougher than I thought.  They have a decent BP.

Pittsburgh broke the streak.  Still only scored 2 runs.  I'm not convinced yet.

The A's really are that bad.

Researching for some gems tonight.  Will post if I find any.

@drifter44

 A man of few word and even fewer emoticons.  I like that.  Welcome to the thread!

Colorado at Pittsburgh.  C. Seabold vs L Ortiz.

Mr. Seabold has spent the great majority of his 6 year pro career in the minor leagues.  He has a total of 14 games and 40IPs with 18.1 of them this year in 2 starts.

His line in those 2 starts 18.2IP 35H 11ER 4HR 14K 3BB and 5.30/1.50 on ERA/WHIP.

Lefties are hitting .368 and righties .275.  Home 4.40/1.40 and away 8.31/1.85 ERA/WHIP.  Remember, small sample, only 2 starts.

Not a ton of metrics on him but he has just been torched in his 2 starts this year.

Mr. Ortiz is a call up from AAA ball making his first start in the bigs this year. 

He did pitch in 2022 for the Pirates and his line 16.2IP 8H 8ER 1HR 17K 10BB with a 4.50/1.13 ERA/WHIP.

That 10 number on walks.  Shows he has control problems.  At the major league level, that will get you blown up fast.

Over 32.1 innings with the affiliate in AAA ball this year, Ortiz has logged a 2.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 29:11 K:BB.  Not bad at the AAA level.

In 2022 in those MLB starts, lefties hit him at a .167 while righties had a .122.  This is what the line must be based on to a large degree.  His limited numbers.

Pirates are -168 with the Rockies at +148. 

As we discussed yesterday, these 2 teams are not too far apart in hitting and in run differential.  The Pirates won 2-0 yesterday so they won the coin flip as a -173 favorite.

And now today, they are nearly that again. 

But the coin flip yesterday was based on a much different starting pitcher duo.  Quality vs Quality.  That is not today.  This is Junk vs Maybe not junk.

And the line is -168???  WAT?

You might say "Look at the OVER 9" but the Pirates are still slumping at the plate in this 1-7 last 8 losing streak.  The Rockies obviously can lay an egg but they probably hit this kid tomorrow.  Not sure how good.

But the value here, again, lies with the Rockies at +148.

Not sure yet if I am playing it, still a lean for now but I'm not convince the Pirates losing streak is over.  Maybe just paused.

Detroit at Cleveland.   M. Lorenzen vs S. Bieber.

I posted a write up with a strong lean on Detroit and then ended up not taking them as I missed the start of the game.  Nice +167 dog winner.

Today Mr. Lorenzen goes for the Tigers.   He looked good vs the METS in the 2nd game of the DHeader.  He had a groin injury to start the year so only has 4 starts.

In those starts his line 21IP 22H 12ER 3HR 16K 7BB and a 5.14/1.38 WHIP.

Ok, so his last start appears to have been his BEST start.  Rough start to the year otherwise.

Lefties hitting .194 with righties CRUSHING a .394 vs him.  Home 5.73/1.45 and away 4.50/1.30 ERA/WHIP.

FIP and BABIP seem to indicate he has not been lucky or unlucky.  Right around neutral.

Josh Bell is the only opposing batter with a decent sized history vs him.  He is hitting .391 with 2 homers and 6RBIs.

Mr. Bieber currently sports a 2.96 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through seven appearances.

But there's some concerning trends to the start of his season.

The long ball is slowly emerging as an issue for the rightie who's now surrendered four home runs over his past four starts.

His strikeout numbers are also down from previous years. He has 30 strikeouts through 45.2 innings after punching out 198 over 200 innings last year, and before that Bieber had posted at least one strikeout per inning over each of his previous four campaigns.

He has a 3.05/1.02 ERA/WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Lefties are hitting .213 and righties .228.  Home 3.55/1.26 and away 2.73/1.00 ERA/Whip.  So much better away than home.

FIP and BABIP seem to indicate he has been lucky this year and should be due for some regression.

He did win the Cy Young in 2020 but that is ancient history at this point.

The line is the Indians -200 and the Tigers +170.    I mean, c'mon.  The Indians still are slumping at the plate. 

The value has to be with Detroit again today.  Lorenzen compares favorably to Bieber in their last 3 starts.  I think he is improving as the season moves on and he gets more starts.

Official Play

Detroit Tigers +170 for 3 units.

@AdVictoriam

T.B. Devil Rays at the O's.  Z. Eflin vs G Rodriguez.

Mr. Eflin got his fourth win in five starts yesterday beating the Pirates.

The 29-year-old went over six innings for the first time in this year and set a season high with 10Ks.

Through 28.0 innings, Eflin holds a 2.25 ERA with a 31:3 K/BB.

Over his last 3 starts he is 1.59/0.82 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties hitting .170, righties .276.  Home 1.96/0,.82 and away 3.60/1.60 ERA/WHIP so quite a bit better at home. Only 1 road start this year though, small sample size.

FIP of 2.95 and BABIP of .296 gives a slight suggestion of over performance or a bit of luck but nothing huge.

Mr. Rodriguez entered his last start vs the Royals having pitched a combined 10 scoreless innings over his previous two appearances.

He then proceeded to have his worst start of the year serving up three homers and five runs between the third and fourth innings.

He left the game after 3.2IPs having thrown 77 pitches.

The eight hits and six total runs he allowed were both season highs while the 3Ks were his season low.

Rodriguez's ERA jumped from 4.07 to 5.46 as a result of the poor outing in his 6th start of the year.

Lefties .265 and righties .286.  Home 4.82/1.93 ERA/WHIP and away 5.79/1.34.

FIP of 4.30 and BABIP of 3.71 have been suggesting significant regression is coming.

The line on the game is Devil Rays -135, O's +115.

Mr. Rodriguez having trouble with the Royals could have just been an aberration.  However, if he has developed a mechanical flaw, it will not go well with the Devil Rays.

I believe we need to go with the hottest/best team in the league again here today and at a very nice price.

Do the Devil Rays win this game more than 57% of the time.  You bet you bahonka they do.

T.B. Devil Rays -135 for 10 units.

METS at Cincinnati.  M. Scherzer vs L. Weaver.

Mad Max.  The name matches the reputation.  But, "Houston, we have a problem".  Mad Max is battling a shoulder problem.  At 38 years old, these things will happen.

And Mad Max is one tough bulldog.  He is trying to battle through it.

Scherzer first injured his shoulder last month and had a start pushed back although he never went on the injured list.

He's still dealing with soreness and attributed the drop in velocity in his last start, where he gave up six runs over 3.1 innings, to managing the injury so it didn't get worse.

Scherzer dealt with a similar but more serious injury in 2019 with the Nationals when he was sidelined for several weeks.

His effectiveness and ability to not aggravate the injury are in question. Scherzer sports a 5.56 ERA in five starts this season.

His last 3 starts he is 4.76/1.41 ERA/WHIP.  Home 0.00/0.83 and away 7.13/1.58 ERA/WHIP. 

Lefties hitting .227 while righties .293.

FIP of 6.34 and BABIP of .267.  Very bad.  This indicates things can and probably will get worse.

Mr. Weaver has given up at least four runs in each of his three starts this season, resulting in an ugly 7.88/1.69 ERA/WHIP through 16 innings.

Lefties hitting .294 while righties .344.  Home 9.53/1.76 and away 6.97/1.65 ERA/WHIP.  Small sample sizes of only 3 total starts, 2 on the road, 1 home.

FIP of 6.34 and BABIP of .381 seems to say he has been a bit unlucky and things could improve some.

The line is at METS -184, Cincy at +164.  The O/U is set at 10 -110 both sides.  TTs METS OVER 5.5 -120 and the Reds OVER 3.5 -125.

Why am I listing the OVERs only?  Because this game is NOT going under.  Weaver will get hit even by the anemic METS. 

And Mad Max will get hit as well.  Yes, I believe this is the year we see significant declines in the 38 year old pitcher with injury history and now a recurrent injury that has already kept him out of one start.

This injury is not going away.  He will be battling it all season.  But the public perception is "OOOO MAD MAX".

The answer is "No".  I'm fading him the rest of the season in some shape or form.  Today, its the OVER as the Reds have decent value at +164 but much more value in the OVERs.

METS/REDS OVER 10 -110 for 3 units

METS TT OVER 5.5 -120 for 3 units

Cincinnati TT OVER 3.5 -125 for 3 units

Slight lean to the Reds as a value play at the +164.

Toronto at Philadelphia.  A. Manoah vs A. Nola.

Mr. Manoah holds a disappointing 4.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through 36.1 innings.

His last 3 starts overall have been better with a 2.12/1.29 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties hitting .288 while righties .242.  Home 7.71/2.29 and away 2.82/1.25 seems to indicate he does love the road starts.

FIP at 5.19 and BABIP at .322 seem to indicate that he is pitching a bit lucky.  Could be worse.

He has always had much more trouble with lefties and he will face 4 of them today including the hot hitting Bryce Harper.

Mr. Nola sports an unsightly 4.64 ERA, a solid 1.13 WHIP and 33:9 K:BB.  This could indicate that positive regression is coming.

His last 3 starts he has a 3.88/0.80 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties are hitting .276 and righties .255.  Home 4.97/1.26 and away 4.50/1.07 show some nice balance.

FIP of 4.02 and BABIP .274 both seem to indicate that positive regression is in his future.  Maybe he has been unlucky early in the season.

His 36.4% ground ball rate this year seems to be the primary driver of his higher ERA.  Career he is 48.7% so that explains a lot.

The line on the game is Phillies -139, Toronto +119.  Seems about right.

The RL +1.5 at -165 for Toronto and the Philly RL -1.5 at +145 seems to say the books see a tight game, possibly a 1 run game.

In general, I'm not a huge fan of Manoah.  I agree that Nola should pitch better at the season progresses.

Not enough here for more than a lean to the Phillies as I do believe they win this game more than 57% of the time that the line indicates.

LEAN only, Phillies.

Oakland A's at the NYY.  D. Rucinski vs C. Schmidt.

Mr. Rucinski is 34 years old and had a hamstring injury at the start of the season that has resulted in him having only 2 starts so far this year.

He is 7.71/2.25 ERA/WHIP in those 2 starts.

Lefties hitting .571 and righties .259.  That's 18 and 29 batters in those categories respectfully. 

Both of those starts were at home so we have no away stats on him.

FIP of 7.20 and BABIP of .371 seem to indicate that he can get worse than what he has shown so far. 

Mr. Schmidt has given up multiple runs in each of his first seven starts this season and has yet to complete more than six innings.

His 5.83 ERA and 1.70 WHIP need work but his 36:9 K:BB through 29.1 innings is decent. 

He had a rough outing at Texas 2 starts back but his last 3 overall is at 3.00/1.53 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties hitting .400 and righties .238.  Home 3.71/1.41 and away 8.76/2.11.  He does love his home cooking and sleeping in his bed it seems.

FIP 5.11 and BABIP .395 seem to say that he can get a lot worse than what he is pitching right now and he may have been VERY lucky so far.

The ML today is NYY -262 and the A's +217.  The OVER 9 +105 and the UNDER 9 -125. 

The UNDER being juiced that heavy is interesting.  Both of these pitchers can give it up.  The assumption must be that the A's won't hit Schmidt.

I don't really see it that way.

But, if there IS a team that can get shutdown by Schmidt, the A's are that team.

Got to say I believe the value is on the +217 with the A's.

Even though there is a rumor that Judge will be in the lineup today, I don't see him there so far.  If he is in, I would lean Yankees.

Right now this is just a lean and not any official play.

Chicago White Sox at the Kansas City Royals.  L. Giolito vs J. Lyles.

Mr. Giolito has put up solid numbers with a 3.67 ERA and a 41:9 K/BB in 41.2 innings.

His last 3 starts he is at 3.05/0.97 ERA/WHIP which says that he has been a bit unlucky or had bad defense behind him.

His last 2 start were even better at 1.98/0.95.

Lefties hitting him at .190 and righties .255.  Home 1.37/0.71 and away 5.73/1.45 ERA/WHIP.  Today is on the road.

He has one of the worst spin rates in baseball at 1960rpm. 

FIP 3.87 and BABIP of 2.78 seem to be pretty neutral.

Salvador Perez vs him today has a 31AB history with 4HR and hitting .419.  Most of the others are under 10ABs but all of them show good success vs him.

Mr. Lyles has surrendered 13 earned runs across nine innings over his past two starts, pushing his season ERA to 6.69.

His last 3 starts he is 10.20/1.60.  Pretty much the definition of a "GAS CAN".  His last 2 starts he is 13.00/2.11. 

Lefties hitting .220 while righties .304.  Home 5.63/1.25 and away 8.27/1.59 ERA/WHIP.

FIP of 6.51 and BABIP of .252 seem to indicate that he can even get a bit worse.

Listen to these BAs of the lineup vs him today.  .286,  .333,  .400,  .571,  .360 in 25ABs,  .343 in 35ABs,  .500. 

The line on this game is the White Sox -150 and the Royals +130.  The OVER 9 -105 and the UNDER 9 -115. 

How?

How is the O/U set at 9 in this game??  Is the thinking that Giolito shuts out the Royals?  Even if he does, Lyles could give up 10 runs in the first 5IPs, if he makes it that far.

And its the UNDER that is juiced to -115?????

The only and I mean ONLY reason this line is not -200 is because the White Sox are one of the 3 worst teams in the league.

The value here is on the OVER 9 and on the TT OVERs.

Chicago TT OVER 4.5 -140 and K.C. TT OVER 3.5 -135.

Just too good to pass up.

Official Plays

Chicago White Sox/K.C. Royals OVER 9 -105 for 3 units

Chicago White Sox TT OVER 4.5 -140 for 3 units.

K.C. Royals TT OVER 3.5 -135 for 3 units.

Man.

Super quiet in here today.

Anyone home?

Ever since they banned all my haters, it's been like a ghost town. LOL.

Anyone reading any of this?

Am I wasting my time?

Still reading.  Appreciate the time and effort you put into these write-ups.  

@AdVictoriam

 Good luck bro 

 keep up the good work  information is important to better decision making.  

Washington Nationals at S.F. Giants.  P. Corbin vs L. Webb.

Skipping down the card to the bottom as this one caught my eye upon a superficial review.  Time for a DEEP dive.

Mr. Corbin had his best start of the season last outing vs the Cubs and he generated 12 swinging strikes on 80 pitches.

His 5.17 ERA for the year remains poor but he's pitched well in his past four outings with a 2.96 ERA and 18:3 K:BB across 24.1 frames.

His last 3 starts he i s 3.93/1.09 ERA/WHIP.  His last 2 are 3.65/1.09 so we have a trend here of improvement as the season has progressed.

Lefties hitting .261 and righties .292.  Home 4.94/1.32 and away 5.72/1.73 ERA/WHIP.

FIP 4.67 and BABIP at 3.13 seem to say he has room that he can improve in.

There are 4 guys in the lineup today vs him with these averages. .500/10ABs, .297/37ABs, .273/22ABs, .323/21ABs.

Mr. Webb has allowed two runs in each of his last three starts pitching into the seventh inning in all three outings.

He now has a 3.80 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 48:7 K:BB through seven starts (45 innings) to begin the season.

His last 3 were 2.53/0.98 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties hitting .290 and righties .228.  Home 2.29/1.02 and away 4.97/1.18 ERA/WHIP.

Spin rate of 1862 is one of the worst I have seen this year but the ground ball rate of 57.9% is excellent.  He is fooling them somehow.

The FIP/BABIP seem to be neutral.

No huge sample sizes on anyone facing him today but the numbers are all pretty high in the .333 to .667 range on all but one of them.

The line on the game is Giants -245 and NATS +205.

That is just too big a number on the Giants.  Value is definitely with the NATS at the +205.

Got a long ways to go before game time so this is just a lean for now.

Not an official play.

Thanks for all your hard work!!

@biggiantkiller

 Certainly agree with that.

The crazy thing is I am doing the exact same research that blasted me up to over +70 units in 6 days but I'm back down at -4 units.

At some point, this thing is going to catch fire again.

And when it does, Katie bar the door!

Oh i read,dont always agree with your picks but always appreciate the write ups! Ty

@Robards

 Certainly would not expect you to agree with all of my selections.  That would be UN AMERICAN!

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves.  N. Pivetta vs C. Morton.

Mr. Pivetta has a 5.73/1.18 ERA/WHIP over his last 2 starts.

Lefties hitting .275 and righties .209.  Home 6.30/1.35 and away 2.53/1.22 ERA/WHIP.  Much better at home than on the road in his 6 starts.

FIP of 5.46 and BABIP of .269 seems to say he could be getting a bit lucky or have an above average defense behind him.

His ground ball rate of 32.9 is low and lower than most of his previous years.

Looking over the Braves lineup today vs him they have had mostly moderate success with most in the .200 to .250 BA range.

His home run and bases on balls rates are pretty bad.

Mr. Morton has issued 15 walks in 34.2IPs this season.  He is 3.65/1.14 ERA/WHIP in his last 2 starts.

Lefties hitting .276 and righties .247.  Home 2.25/1.17 and away 3.97/1.95 on ERA/WHIP so much better at away games.  4 of his 6 were away this year.

FIP and BABIP are pretty normal and nothing stands out.

4 of the 5 batters he will be facing today have had very good success vs him over 10-20ABs.

Atlanta -181 and Boston +161.  Both of these teams rank in the top 5 of most hitting metrics.

Not really getting this line.  Feels more like it should be in the -120 to -130 range.

The OVER 9.5 is juiced to -120 and Boston TT O 3.5 is at -145 so somebody thinks that Boston can hit Morton.  I don't see any problem with the Braves hitting Pivetta.

Books think so too with the Braves TT O 5.5 at -105.  Boston 5.78 and Atlanta 5.37 on runs per game this year.

I'm liking the OVERs here but the best one is the Boston TT OVER.

Official play.

Boston TT OVER 3.5 -145 for 3 units.

@AdVictoriam

 Lol

True

just bet 30 units next time so you can win more units 

Yep, Peterson now in for Metskis.

Also, Judge in 2 spot officially for NYY.

 this evening.

@AdVictoriam

 Hate to be that guy - what about no ten unit bets? Hope it hits though BOL

@Ramanujan

 I have the bankroll and ability to do them now and then so I will if I really like a play.

I don't do them lightly.  I would advise you to use them as a marker for how much I like a play and how good of a +EV play it is.

I certainly am not forcing you to do them.  I have admitted hey are outside of bankroll management guidelines.

I'll admit up front that I am 0-2 on them this season.

But.

I could go 8-0 on the next 8.

Everyone has their weaknesses.

I put mine out in the open for all to see and judge.

So, so be it.  Judge me if you wish.

I can take it.