(63-59) -27.11 units in 16 days

Putting this one in tonight as I expect it to move toward the White Sox.

Chicago White Sox -107 for 3 units

Mr. Singer pitching for the Royals has had a bad start to the season and it continued Saturday as he gave up at least five runs for the fifth time in seven starts while taking his fourth loss in his last five appearances.

Singer owns an abysmal 8.82 ERA and 1.60 WHIP while the Royals score the fifth-fewest runs in MLB.

Liking these trends to continue.

Singer has the talent amd is due to pitch better. Clevinger also not impressive. Will be an interesting game tomorrow. GL 

Clevinger has ants in his pants 

@Brooklyncapper

 Line moved to White Sox +105 this morning.

Seems your theory about Singer may be correct.

@AdVictoriam

 KC Royals offense is hot. They scored 5 or more runs in 7 of L9 games. 

METS/Reds game has an O/U of 10.5 with the OVER 10.5 +100 and the UNDER 10.5 -120.

Then, the METS TT OVER 5.5 is -145 while the REDS TT OVER 4.5 is -147.

These TTs are extremely heavily juiced.

Senga only has 2 starts away this year but he really likes his home cooking.

Home he is 1.59/1.24 and away he is 5.40/1.73.

Clearly the books see him getting hit today.

FIP at 5.15 and BABIP at .256 also indicates he has been very lucky most likely.  Regression is probably "due".

Also, he has given up 22 walks in 32IPs.  You have to be lucky to have done that and gotten away with it like he has.

@AdVictoriam

 Reds TT Over 4 is -110 right now. Where did you see Over 4.5 at -147?

GL 

@Tdotsports

 Offshore book that I use had those lines.  But I might have had a typo there with the REDS number. 

Right now, they have changed.

METS TT OVER is now 5.5 -143 while the REDS TT OVER 3.5 -141.

Buffer, better Ants in his pants then uncles.

@AdVictoriam

 Good Luck! 

S.D. Padres at Minnesota Twins.  Y. Darvish vs B. Ober.

Darvish has been steady this year.  I would classify him as "near elite".  If he wasn't mentally weak, he would be elite.

Last 3 he is 2.95/1.15 ERA/WHIP.  Remember he had to pitch in Mexico City and he gave up 3HRs in that game.  The only game this year he gave up any HRs.

Lefties .267 and righties .157.  Home 2.55/1.09 and away 4.50/1.77 ERA/WHIP.

Mr. Ober.  Is he really THIS good?  The short answer is "probably NOT".  Although the numbers are striking so far this year.  Career 3.51/1.12 ERA/WHIP for comparison.

He has a 0.,98/0.87 ERA/WHIP in his 3 starts.  Home 1.59/1.96 away 0.00/0.57 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties hitting him at .200 while righties .111. 

The 3 teams he has faced are Cleveland (worst hitting in the league), Kansas City and Washington which are both solid mid bottom half to bottom quarter of the league.

FIP of 2.54 and BABIP of .217 STRONGLY suggest that he has been VERY lucky to this point and regression is HIGHLY likely to occur.

Throw in a ground ball rate of 26.7%, almost 18% lower than league average, and the LUCKY factor is reinforced as HUGE again.

His line for these 3 starts 18.1IP 10H 2ER 0HR 6BB 16K. 

The line for the game is Padres -132, Twins +112.

If Ober was the real deal, this line would have the Twins favored in this game.  The line says it all IMO.

His regression may or may not happen today as the Padres batting profile looks an awful lot like the Royals.

In fact, the Royals have scored more runs (159) than the Padres (154) this year.

Ober may yet be able to continue his smoke and mirrors show today.   Hard to totally say.

Padres TT OVER 4.5 -115 and Twins TT OVER 3.5 -125 seems to say that Ober has a decent shot of getting hit today.

No official play but I would have to lean Padres here. 

The Ober dog and pony show is going to end at some point.

Rechecked and made a list of the top 10 and bottom 10 run scoring teams in MLB. 

Top 10

T.B.  231

TX    227

Boston   216

LAD   208

Atlanta   199

LA Angels  195

O's   192

AZ   191

Cubs   183

Toronto  178

League average is 171.

Bottom 10

Cleveland Indians  126

Miami   129

Detroit   132

A's    147

NATS   149

REDS  152

Padres   154

Twins 157

Seattle   157

METS 158

Senga's luck and walks appear to have blown up in his face.

Imagine that.

@AdVictoriam

 Guardians should remain in the bottom 5 of lowest runs scored all year. Guardians are stacked with guys that can't hit.

@uclownfacedfool

 Got to look at UNDER plays with them literally almost every game.

Yu Darvish throws a knuckle curve ball 0.05% of the time.

One of his 11 pitches he can throw.

I just saw one and it was absolutely deadly.

If this guy had mental toughness, he literally could have been one of the best of all time.

But.

If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

As the saying goes.

@AdVictoriam

 Even if CWS pull this off, I can't bet them after their effort last night. A team that gives up too easily. 

Official plays.

Texas Rangers/ A’s over 8.5-120 for three units

Texas rangers team total over 5.5-105 for 3 units

Keep grinding my friend 

@Ringmaster316x

 Fell for the trap last night.

Eovaldi just too good to allow the A's any traction.

I should have figured out that 8.5 was too good to be true.

Medina got out of some jams though.  He was much better than advertised.

0-3 and -9.96 units.

Cumulative 65-63 and -37.07 units.