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#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 17-18-1 (49.1%) -1.75u
'11-12 NHL-P: 1-1 (50.0%) +0.10u
8:05 EST - St. Louis Cardinals (-140)
Buying in early to guarantee the best price. I see tons of value on this line. Garcia is my #32 ranked starter in the MLB. He's a south paw and extremely good against left handed batters - almost eliminating them as a threat entirely. Houston ranks #29 offensively against lefties so I don't see them having much success at all against Garcia. Despite their recent hitting slump, the Cardinals are still a top 5 ranked total offense and they're going up a against a pitcher I rank #155 out of 200 starters. He pitches for contact and has very low K% and K/BB ratios. The Cardinals are #3 offensively against righties so I think they'll do well to convert some of their contact into base hits and runs. My model has the Cardinals projected to win 68.3% of time translating to a -216 line. At -140 we have 76 cents of value.
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