Posted:
#1
Yesterday: 4-0 +$2911.73
Royals ML -104 ($750 to win $721.15)
Mariners ML -105 ($750 to win $714.29)
Indians -1 ($750 to win $762) manufactured using RL and ML
Rangers ML -105 ($750 to win $714.29)
YTD: 44-25 +$24,708.44
Return on Risk: 26.53%
Today:
Astros ML -143 ($750 to win $524.48)
Rangers ML -120 ($750 to win $625)
Cubs ML -120 ($750 to win $625)
Analysis:
Astros ML -143 ($750 to win $524.48)
The rookie Lance McCullers has been solid all year, with more strikeouts than innings pitched, and only giving up 4 home runs in 83.2 innings. In early August, he had his only terrible start of the year, so the Astros wanted to reduce his workload by sending him to the minors for 3 weeks. That time away should have been good for the rookie, and he returned last week to pitch 7 quality innings against the Dodgers, giving up just 2 runs with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks. Meanwhile, over his last 6 starts Ervin Santana has a 9.27 ERA, and he has a 9.77 ERA in 3 starts at home this year. Carlos Correa isn't in the lineup today, but based on the starting lineups I have the Astros at SLG/OPS splits of .436/.742 and the Twins at .434./.750. A wash on the bats but a huge advantage in pitching for the Astros.
Rangers ML -120 ($750 to win $625)
Miguel Gonzalez is sporting a 7.71 ERA over his last 6 starts, and the Orioles lost 5 of those games. In 2 starts since coming back from the DL, Derek Holland has been good considering one of those starts was against the Blue Jays, who hit left better than anyone in the league. In those two starts he has an impressive 9/1 K/BB ratio. The starting lineup splits have the Orioles at .431/.746 and the Rangers at .425/.754. A wash on the bats, but I'll take the Rangers pitching advantage over the Orioles, who have now lost 9 of their last 10 games.
Cubs ML -120 ($750 to win $625)
Arrieta is a beast, and since July 1, the Cubs have won 10 of the 11 games he has started. He now has 13 quality starts in a row and is drawing comparisons to Greg Maddux (who had 14 in a row) for this feat. Alex Wood has had a serviceable 4.34 ERA in 5 starts as a Dodger. The Dodgers are hitting much poorer after the all-star break than before, and the opposite is true for the Cubs. The Dodgers numbers against right have been better than the Cubs numbers against left, but the Cubs pitching advantage tonight far outweighs any advantage the Dodgers bats may have. I'm glad that the Cubs have lost 4 games in a row and that the Dodgers have won 5 in a row, as we are getting Arrieta at a real discount at -120. I'll also take a pitcher who is pitching like Greg Maddux in his prime any day.
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