Looking for anyone who is wiling to provide a little guidance on creating a baseball betting model. I am by no means asking for a handout, for someone to just hand over a successful model that they already have. I enjoy doing the work myself but need some hep getting started. I had a nice system setup for college basketball that I used then netted me 98.13 units this year. I want to see if I can set something up for baseball this year. I am looking to insight on what stats to track and some of the best places to gather these stats or is it best to get the stats i need on my own? If anyone would like to throw a bone to new baseball bettor or has any online resources that they would like to share to get me started that would be great.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looking for anyone who is wiling to provide a little guidance on creating a baseball betting model. I am by no means asking for a handout, for someone to just hand over a successful model that they already have. I enjoy doing the work myself but need some hep getting started. I had a nice system setup for college basketball that I used then netted me 98.13 units this year. I want to see if I can set something up for baseball this year. I am looking to insight on what stats to track and some of the best places to gather these stats or is it best to get the stats i need on my own? If anyone would like to throw a bone to new baseball bettor or has any online resources that they would like to share to get me started that would be great.
Looking for anyone who is wiling to provide a little guidance on creating a baseball betting model. I am by no means asking for a handout, for someone to just hand over a successful model that they already have.
Hey, I'll try to help. I'm a retired automotive-industry CAD designer, dabbling in sports betting
without losing my shirt. I've done alright in college basketball and made SMALL profits (less than
10% over about 200 bets) the last two years in baseball, using the method mentioned below.
It's a system that focuses on Underdog betting. A VERY simple algebraic formula is used to
re-calculate a new moneyline and is given in the book mentioned below. It ain't quantum
physics -- it's a 90 page book that can be read and easily understood in a day or two!
See my follow-up post below:
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Quote Originally Posted by Gwp22:
Looking for anyone who is wiling to provide a little guidance on creating a baseball betting model. I am by no means asking for a handout, for someone to just hand over a successful model that they already have.
Hey, I'll try to help. I'm a retired automotive-industry CAD designer, dabbling in sports betting
without losing my shirt. I've done alright in college basketball and made SMALL profits (less than
10% over about 200 bets) the last two years in baseball, using the method mentioned below.
It's a system that focuses on Underdog betting. A VERY simple algebraic formula is used to
re-calculate a new moneyline and is given in the book mentioned below. It ain't quantum
physics -- it's a 90 page book that can be read and easily understood in a day or two!
I bet EXCLUSIVELY on MLB Underdogs using Ken Osterman's recalculated moneyline method. This method establishes an alternative moneyline based upon run differentials over the most recent five games played -- I, however, use the last SEVEN games in computing the differential.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gwp22:
Well I have one of those what next?
I bet EXCLUSIVELY on MLB Underdogs using Ken Osterman's recalculated moneyline method. This method establishes an alternative moneyline based upon run differentials over the most recent five games played -- I, however, use the last SEVEN games in computing the differential.
The entire theory is based upon the fact that MLB teams tend to play well (or not) in brief winning or losing streaks. Identifying which underdogs are playing better than their reputation (or W-L record) would suggest is the goal; obviously many other factors must be considered, therefore the actual wagers might be placed upon as few as four to eight (or nine) games in each betting bloc.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gwp22:
Well I have one of those what next?
The entire theory is based upon the fact that MLB teams tend to play well (or not) in brief winning or losing streaks. Identifying which underdogs are playing better than their reputation (or W-L record) would suggest is the goal; obviously many other factors must be considered, therefore the actual wagers might be placed upon as few as four to eight (or nine) games in each betting bloc.
Teams are ONLY bet on at the conclusion of a "brand new" 7-game streak; with no overlap from previous ones. Therefore I'll be betting on a new group of contests every 8-10 days, more or less. Since MLB season might be shortened to barely 100 games this summer I may only have 15 - 16 groups of wagers, but I hope to win at least 45% and break even. We'll see....
1
Quote Originally Posted by Gwp22:
Well I have one of those what next?
Teams are ONLY bet on at the conclusion of a "brand new" 7-game streak; with no overlap from previous ones. Therefore I'll be betting on a new group of contests every 8-10 days, more or less. Since MLB season might be shortened to barely 100 games this summer I may only have 15 - 16 groups of wagers, but I hope to win at least 45% and break even. We'll see....
Well, i first read this about an 1 hour before made this post. with all due respect, i have to admit im skeptical. but, it was cheap. $3.79 including shipping. an actual book, not an ebook. got it of ebay. a new listing. average asking price was about $14. Also, i do like reading things involving numbers.
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Well, i first read this about an 1 hour before made this post. with all due respect, i have to admit im skeptical. but, it was cheap. $3.79 including shipping. an actual book, not an ebook. got it of ebay. a new listing. average asking price was about $14. Also, i do like reading things involving numbers.
2. collect data on what you believe is your hypothesis or the key driver of what wins baseball games.
3. Organize - summarize - analyze - if you collect enough you will find history repeats or it doesn’t and you probably have to go back to #2.
4. a few hints A. x drives y meaning does pitching lead to victories or does hitting lead to victories or something else B. Always include the opening line oddsmakers put on a game in your analysis C. Recognize the best and worst pitchers on paper don’t always win or lose.
good luck
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1. Look up the definition of statistics
2. collect data on what you believe is your hypothesis or the key driver of what wins baseball games.
3. Organize - summarize - analyze - if you collect enough you will find history repeats or it doesn’t and you probably have to go back to #2.
4. a few hints A. x drives y meaning does pitching lead to victories or does hitting lead to victories or something else B. Always include the opening line oddsmakers put on a game in your analysis C. Recognize the best and worst pitchers on paper don’t always win or lose.
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