Posted Record: 27-12-2 (+32.53 units)
I seem to be zig-zagging wins & losses this past week with another kind of bad beat yesterday. The Brewers lost their starter after 1 inning and had to go to a makeshift bullpen game. The pen actually performed quite well and should've won the game. If the ball doesn't get stuck under the wall padding, the Brewers would have scored that 3rd run and we would have never had to see Mitch White, perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball give the game away in extras. Of course, the offense had many chances to add on and they blew it too. So, I chalk it up as a shitty loss and move on. The craziness of the game will hopefully start going my way soon, life has a way of evening out.
When I look at today's card, the most probable winner sticks out like a sore thumb. The Houston Astros blew a 6-1 lead to LA yesterday and you'd have to believe that revenge is on their mind. Let's take a look at why I think they'll be successful:
1) Houston currently ranks third in offensive efficiency. However, when just looking at home numbers, they rank 1st! Yes, even better than the Dodgers. At home the Astros are slashing; 274 AVG/349 OBP/456 SLG/805 OPS. Those are some good numbers.
2) Even without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels are not a terrible offense. Although, they're not a good one either. They find themselves in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th with a; 246 AVG/308 OBP/388 SLG/709 OPS. Not a big difference in home/away splits, but they do drop slightly across the board against right handed pitching.
3) It appears Houston has a significant advantage on the mound tonight. The Angels have seen Cristian Javier for 52 ABs. They're hitting a paltry; 212 AVG/281 OBP/404 SLG/685 OPS.
4) Houston has seen Griffin Canning for 48 ABs. They're hitting him for; 333 AVG/396 OBP/583 SLG/980 OPS.
5) Houston had one of the worst starts to their season in recent memory. However, since May 9th, they've won 9 of 12, finding themselves just 5 games out of 1st place in the West. I believe last I looked, they still had the 6th best odds at winning the World Series. In fact, they were the only team with a losing record to find themselves in the top 10. We're finally seeing the same old Astros, a very good team.
6) Even with the recent wins, the Angels find themselves in the bottom 5 of most power rankings. They're clearly in a rebuild and development stage. I don't know that they care much about wins. I believe they're more focused on getting their top prospects big league experience. It's only May 21st, and they've already debuted their 2022 top pick, 2023 top pick, and their 3rd and 6th round picks from 2022. It's very rare to see that many guys come up this quick. I expect the Angels will win some games with this talent, but more often than not - they'll find themselves getting pounded. The big leagues mostly feast on young guys. It's just part of the process.
7) Bottom line, I see the veteran Astros putting the young Angels in their place tonight. Cristian Javier finds himself against opponents that either haven't seen him or don't see him well. While Griffin Canning finds himself facing off with the best home offense in baseball, who has a history of seeing him well, and revenge on their mind.
I'm on the Astros at -138 (-1) for 15 units.
Cheers and BOL 
am in at -1 .... thanks for posting .....
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