Pretty interesting stuff I've been following. Every time they have a favorite that has a high probability of covering the runline the spread is 40-60 pointS. And when the spread is more like 80-110 points than the sportsbook is predicting the team will cover money line and not cover runline. Use dodgers tonight line was -180 so heavily juiced on moneyline and runline was +105 so obviously dodgers will win by one run. Let me know if u guys have noticed the same?? Or have run a data set from recent lines to figure a good predictive model for baseball
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Pretty interesting stuff I've been following. Every time they have a favorite that has a high probability of covering the runline the spread is 40-60 pointS. And when the spread is more like 80-110 points than the sportsbook is predicting the team will cover money line and not cover runline. Use dodgers tonight line was -180 so heavily juiced on moneyline and runline was +105 so obviously dodgers will win by one run. Let me know if u guys have noticed the same?? Or have run a data set from recent lines to figure a good predictive model for baseball
I look at this sometimes for Overs and Unders. For example, if the RL is +ve for a big favourte such as LAD it might indicate be a close fought game and hence could be more conducive to the under.
But if it was conclusive ie a reliable model everyone would be doing it and making money. There is no reliable predictive model which looks purely at odds and grants winners. It is just one ingredient, like reading lines is another.
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I look at this sometimes for Overs and Unders. For example, if the RL is +ve for a big favourte such as LAD it might indicate be a close fought game and hence could be more conducive to the under.
But if it was conclusive ie a reliable model everyone would be doing it and making money. There is no reliable predictive model which looks purely at odds and grants winners. It is just one ingredient, like reading lines is another.
Pretty interesting stuff I've been following. Every time they have a favorite that has a high probability of covering the runline the spread is 40-60 pointS. And when the spread is more like 80-110 points than the sportsbook is predicting the team will cover money line and not cover runline. Use dodgers tonight line was -180 so heavily juiced on moneyline and runline was +105 so obviously dodgers will win by one run. Let me know if u guys have noticed the same?? Or have run a data set from recent lines to figure a good predictive model for baseball
Not relelvant ....the books dont create run lines based on this.
There's several criteria they have mostly based on whether the run line favorite is the home/road team and if its an American League/National league team. AL teams have lower run lines and differences of only 60 cent to 80 cents. NL run lines have deeper lines because there are more 1 run games than AL.
Also other factors like the stadium come into play. Dodgers stadium has a higher rate of one run games than other stadiums thus you will always see Dodgers home games run line with at least an 80 cent to 100 cent difference. Basically they are begging you to take the -1.5 run line in stadiums like Dodgers and Padres stadium because runs are hard to come by and many games end in one run like tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilshasnutz:
Pretty interesting stuff I've been following. Every time they have a favorite that has a high probability of covering the runline the spread is 40-60 pointS. And when the spread is more like 80-110 points than the sportsbook is predicting the team will cover money line and not cover runline. Use dodgers tonight line was -180 so heavily juiced on moneyline and runline was +105 so obviously dodgers will win by one run. Let me know if u guys have noticed the same?? Or have run a data set from recent lines to figure a good predictive model for baseball
Not relelvant ....the books dont create run lines based on this.
There's several criteria they have mostly based on whether the run line favorite is the home/road team and if its an American League/National league team. AL teams have lower run lines and differences of only 60 cent to 80 cents. NL run lines have deeper lines because there are more 1 run games than AL.
Also other factors like the stadium come into play. Dodgers stadium has a higher rate of one run games than other stadiums thus you will always see Dodgers home games run line with at least an 80 cent to 100 cent difference. Basically they are begging you to take the -1.5 run line in stadiums like Dodgers and Padres stadium because runs are hard to come by and many games end in one run like tonight.
the spread on the run line is high correlated to the total but you do find anomalies from time to time you can exploit, sometimes it's profitable to take the both sides of a prop
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the spread on the run line is high correlated to the total but you do find anomalies from time to time you can exploit, sometimes it's profitable to take the both sides of a prop
There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
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There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
I like ur take on that count but I feel like the books are giving us extra info on the probabilities of games playing out a certain way. Thanks for the input folks!
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I like ur take on that count but I feel like the books are giving us extra info on the probabilities of games playing out a certain way. Thanks for the input folks!
There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
In your example where the moneyline is -150 and run line is -110 is because the favorite is a road team. You only get a 40 cent difference because the road favorite can keep on scoring more than one run should it go into extra innings.
I have never seen a home favorite run line where its only 40 or 50 cents ....never. You were mistaken and looking at a road team.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilshasnutz:
There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
In your example where the moneyline is -150 and run line is -110 is because the favorite is a road team. You only get a 40 cent difference because the road favorite can keep on scoring more than one run should it go into extra innings.
I have never seen a home favorite run line where its only 40 or 50 cents ....never. You were mistaken and looking at a road team.
Just fyi , I've been betting run lines in baseball since they offered it offshore for over 15 years now thus I have a good grasp on how they set the run lines.
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Just fyi , I've been betting run lines in baseball since they offered it offshore for over 15 years now thus I have a good grasp on how they set the run lines.
Yeah that does seem correct that the large spreads differ for road and home favorites. Thanks for the info. Still think there is some info involved in runline pricing but Im just wasting time betting baseball till football and college basketball start.
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Yeah that does seem correct that the large spreads differ for road and home favorites. Thanks for the info. Still think there is some info involved in runline pricing but Im just wasting time betting baseball till football and college basketball start.
The Op's point is duly noted, which if we can get down to the nuts and bolts of it: If the RL is in +ve territory then Vegas have calculated you have less than even chance of getting the RL. Pretty straightforward right.
So there are three possible outcomes: 1. RL hits, 2. Favoured team wins by just 1 3. Favoured team loses altogether.
If the RL is at a +ve price, the message of course is that Vegas sees there is a greater than 50% chance that the 2nd or 3rd outcome will eventuate. Cappers don't look at it this way. They see +ve RL as a bargain on a big priced favourite like LAD tonight. This is why Vegas wins more often than not over the long run, because they know how these things turn out. And the poster above who mentioned differences in AL and NL leagues, Stadiums, home and away teams etc etc are some of those things which factor in how the books make their RL lines. I imagine he is dead on.
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The Op's point is duly noted, which if we can get down to the nuts and bolts of it: If the RL is in +ve territory then Vegas have calculated you have less than even chance of getting the RL. Pretty straightforward right.
So there are three possible outcomes: 1. RL hits, 2. Favoured team wins by just 1 3. Favoured team loses altogether.
If the RL is at a +ve price, the message of course is that Vegas sees there is a greater than 50% chance that the 2nd or 3rd outcome will eventuate. Cappers don't look at it this way. They see +ve RL as a bargain on a big priced favourite like LAD tonight. This is why Vegas wins more often than not over the long run, because they know how these things turn out. And the poster above who mentioned differences in AL and NL leagues, Stadiums, home and away teams etc etc are some of those things which factor in how the books make their RL lines. I imagine he is dead on.
Also another thing to consider, when you take the -1.5 run line and your team happens to win the game by only one run, you actually lose more than what you've wagered due to what I call "implied winnings" theory. This is what I mean by "implied" :
For example in tonights game with Dodgers:
Dodgers -175 on moneyline. Let's say you had $175 to wager with. You would have won $175 + $100 stake =$275 in your pocket
But for the greedy bettors that took the -1.5 run line , you have $0
You have to take into consideration that stake + winnings amount. A lot of noob bettors think they only lost $175 but in essence its more than that because you would have $275 in your pockets right now if you took the moneyline. It took me a while to grasp this theory but once I did, I understood that the -1.5 is a suckers bet in the long run. Now I'm not saying that there arent spot situations where you cant profit from it because there definitely is. But you should mix it up and take mostly moneylines and sprinkle in a run line here and there. I see a lot of guys here falling in love with the run line due to its big returns but trust me, the books will not be offering if its not a sucker bet in the long run.
GL fellas
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Also another thing to consider, when you take the -1.5 run line and your team happens to win the game by only one run, you actually lose more than what you've wagered due to what I call "implied winnings" theory. This is what I mean by "implied" :
For example in tonights game with Dodgers:
Dodgers -175 on moneyline. Let's say you had $175 to wager with. You would have won $175 + $100 stake =$275 in your pocket
But for the greedy bettors that took the -1.5 run line , you have $0
You have to take into consideration that stake + winnings amount. A lot of noob bettors think they only lost $175 but in essence its more than that because you would have $275 in your pockets right now if you took the moneyline. It took me a while to grasp this theory but once I did, I understood that the -1.5 is a suckers bet in the long run. Now I'm not saying that there arent spot situations where you cant profit from it because there definitely is. But you should mix it up and take mostly moneylines and sprinkle in a run line here and there. I see a lot of guys here falling in love with the run line due to its big returns but trust me, the books will not be offering if its not a sucker bet in the long run.
The books definitely make their money on huge favorites in the long run. Public pounds the favorite, they don't want the juice- they lay the RL.
Books clean up in the long run. If the line is typically like this (very strange) then I typically bet the F5 under as I feel the games stay tight and typically uneventful until the bullpen arrives.
Vegas is good.
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The books definitely make their money on huge favorites in the long run. Public pounds the favorite, they don't want the juice- they lay the RL.
Books clean up in the long run. If the line is typically like this (very strange) then I typically bet the F5 under as I feel the games stay tight and typically uneventful until the bullpen arrives.
Yeah you guys are right on. Definitely better to have $275 in your pocket than zero. I guess that's why baseball is really about finding + moneyline games with high probability of cashing. Cheers! Cant wait for College Basketball That is where the real money will be made!!
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Yeah you guys are right on. Definitely better to have $275 in your pocket than zero. I guess that's why baseball is really about finding + moneyline games with high probability of cashing. Cheers! Cant wait for College Basketball That is where the real money will be made!!
^Gotta love this 'implied winnings theory'. I like that mentaility.
But what about the RL for the non favoured team which lose by 1 run? Moneyline on ATL would have left you empty tonight as well. Everything's a risk.
I'm surprised that I've never seen any articles or people ever talking about this implied winnings theory for the runline. The books are definitely not going to mention about it either but it's a cold hard fact. It's just something that I realized after years of losing on the runline.
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Quote Originally Posted by Learnersrealm:
^Gotta love this 'implied winnings theory'. I like that mentaility.
But what about the RL for the non favoured team which lose by 1 run? Moneyline on ATL would have left you empty tonight as well. Everything's a risk.
I'm surprised that I've never seen any articles or people ever talking about this implied winnings theory for the runline. The books are definitely not going to mention about it either but it's a cold hard fact. It's just something that I realized after years of losing on the runline.
I've definitely caught notice of this as well. doesn't always work but you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the RL & -1 Lines. If you compare similar lines, say 2 teams at -135ish....
Team A might be -1.5 +150 and there -1 might still be +110
While Team B is -1.5 +120 and there -1 is even or slightly juiced.
So yes, sometimes it does work, sometimes not. I wouldn't cap all games everyday this way, but its always in the back of my mind. if it smells and looks too good to be true it probably is.
Good Luck and Good find, Wilsha
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I've definitely caught notice of this as well. doesn't always work but you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the RL & -1 Lines. If you compare similar lines, say 2 teams at -135ish....
Team A might be -1.5 +150 and there -1 might still be +110
While Team B is -1.5 +120 and there -1 is even or slightly juiced.
So yes, sometimes it does work, sometimes not. I wouldn't cap all games everyday this way, but its always in the back of my mind. if it smells and looks too good to be true it probably is.
The majority of my plays come from the [-1.5] RL and the valued [-1.5] RRL seldom, if ever, do I initiate the [+1.5] RL. I see no attached formulated system to the price of the RL, that would be advantageous to a projected/handicapped win; and believe me, over the past seasons/years I've looked long and hard, and see nothing of significant value that would be considered the 'winning edge'
interesting thread, a lot of RunLine concept to theory
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The majority of my plays come from the [-1.5] RL and the valued [-1.5] RRL seldom, if ever, do I initiate the [+1.5] RL. I see no attached formulated system to the price of the RL, that would be advantageous to a projected/handicapped win; and believe me, over the past seasons/years I've looked long and hard, and see nothing of significant value that would be considered the 'winning edge'
interesting thread, a lot of RunLine concept to theory
There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
and the dodgers are probably going to beat the rl
there was another game earlier this season just after the break where Tampa was -135 money line and +110 run line. This is really weird because the lower the money line the more the spread should be. -135 correlates to a +140 runline. Needless to say I popped on it when the public drove the price of TB RL up, they won by 7 IIRC
does not happen often but you can pick out spots where the house is in love with a side and the public eats it up
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilshasnutz:
There it is dodgers by 1. It's just funny that some games will have money line -150 and runline -110 and then other games like David price throwing for the rays tonight where moneyline started at -190 and runline was +105. Basically book is trying to set the bettors up either way. Pay a high vig for a 50/50 game or give u a juiced line +105 that they know is a sucker bet. Just trying to put some knowledge out there cause I don't like baseball or Sportsbooks
and the dodgers are probably going to beat the rl
there was another game earlier this season just after the break where Tampa was -135 money line and +110 run line. This is really weird because the lower the money line the more the spread should be. -135 correlates to a +140 runline. Needless to say I popped on it when the public drove the price of TB RL up, they won by 7 IIRC
does not happen often but you can pick out spots where the house is in love with a side and the public eats it up
Also another thing to consider, when you take the -1.5 run line and your team happens to win the game by only one run, you actually lose more than what you've wagered due to what I call "implied winnings" theory. This is what I mean by "implied" :
For example in tonights game with Dodgers:
Dodgers -175 on moneyline. Let's say you had $175 to wager with. You would have won $175 + $100 stake =$275 in your pocket
But for the greedy bettors that took the -1.5 run line , you have $0
You have to take into consideration that stake + winnings amount. A lot of noob bettors think they only lost $175 but in essence its more than that because you would have $275 in your pockets right now if you took the moneyline. It took me a while to grasp this theory but once I did, I understood that the -1.5 is a suckers bet in the long run. Now I'm not saying that there arent spot situations where you cant profit from it because there definitely is. But you should mix it up and take mostly moneylines and sprinkle in a run line here and there. I see a lot of guys here falling in love with the run line due to its big returns but trust me, the books will not be offering if its not a sucker bet in the long run.
GL fellas
this is wrong, in fact runlines are undervalued and you should bet it just about every time you have a multi unit favorite.
The public perception of the number of one run games is different enough from actual that there is inherent value in all run lines. Put up a thread asking how many games have been decided by one run in the history of baseball and everyone will guess a number that is too high
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Quote Originally Posted by CountCrisco:
Also another thing to consider, when you take the -1.5 run line and your team happens to win the game by only one run, you actually lose more than what you've wagered due to what I call "implied winnings" theory. This is what I mean by "implied" :
For example in tonights game with Dodgers:
Dodgers -175 on moneyline. Let's say you had $175 to wager with. You would have won $175 + $100 stake =$275 in your pocket
But for the greedy bettors that took the -1.5 run line , you have $0
You have to take into consideration that stake + winnings amount. A lot of noob bettors think they only lost $175 but in essence its more than that because you would have $275 in your pockets right now if you took the moneyline. It took me a while to grasp this theory but once I did, I understood that the -1.5 is a suckers bet in the long run. Now I'm not saying that there arent spot situations where you cant profit from it because there definitely is. But you should mix it up and take mostly moneylines and sprinkle in a run line here and there. I see a lot of guys here falling in love with the run line due to its big returns but trust me, the books will not be offering if its not a sucker bet in the long run.
GL fellas
this is wrong, in fact runlines are undervalued and you should bet it just about every time you have a multi unit favorite.
The public perception of the number of one run games is different enough from actual that there is inherent value in all run lines. Put up a thread asking how many games have been decided by one run in the history of baseball and everyone will guess a number that is too high
In fact I read 2 independent studies saying just over 16%, according to my own calculations the inherent value in the run line is something like 5%. In other words, they are juiced to around 21%. In other words, games are decided by more than one run 5% more often than the implied odds of the typical runline
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In fact I read 2 independent studies saying just over 16%, according to my own calculations the inherent value in the run line is something like 5%. In other words, they are juiced to around 21%. In other words, games are decided by more than one run 5% more often than the implied odds of the typical runline
This makes an interesting discussion. I disagree with URZ2 that you should bet RL and get box public perception and so forth I like Counts explanation thus far.
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This makes an interesting discussion. I disagree with URZ2 that you should bet RL and get box public perception and so forth I like Counts explanation thus far.
there was another game earlier this season just after the break where Tampa was -135 money line and +110 run line. This is really weird because the lower the money line the more the spread should be. -135 correlates to a +140 runline. Needless to say I popped on it when the public drove the price of TB RL up, they won by 7 IIRC
does not happen often but you can pick out spots where the house is in love with a side and the public eats it up
You're an idiot and obvious noob to runline betting. The only reason why Tampa was -135 moneyline and +110 run line is because they were a road favorite. You'll never see a road favorite with a run line over 70 cent difference .....never.
And in your other example of -135 moneyline and +140, this will only happen with a home favorite and in strict conditions like two low scoring NL teams vs two good pitchers. You will never see a runline difference of over 100 cents when its a road team.
Your theory is idiotic.
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Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
and the dodgers are probably going to beat the rl
there was another game earlier this season just after the break where Tampa was -135 money line and +110 run line. This is really weird because the lower the money line the more the spread should be. -135 correlates to a +140 runline. Needless to say I popped on it when the public drove the price of TB RL up, they won by 7 IIRC
does not happen often but you can pick out spots where the house is in love with a side and the public eats it up
You're an idiot and obvious noob to runline betting. The only reason why Tampa was -135 moneyline and +110 run line is because they were a road favorite. You'll never see a road favorite with a run line over 70 cent difference .....never.
And in your other example of -135 moneyline and +140, this will only happen with a home favorite and in strict conditions like two low scoring NL teams vs two good pitchers. You will never see a runline difference of over 100 cents when its a road team.
In fact I read 2 independent studies saying just over 16%, according to my own calculations the inherent value in the run line is something like 5%. In other words, they are juiced to around 21%. In other words, games are decided by more than one run 5% more often than the implied odds of the typical runline
Nope wrong again. The estimate of one run games happen more than you think. Research more about it and you'll see. Every team has about 23% of their games end in run one outcomes. For some teams that play in pitchers stadium like Padres/Mariners/Dodgers , its even higher.
Just think about it , why do books offer run lines with open arms?? They know its a money making machine and sucker bet in the long run.
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Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
In fact I read 2 independent studies saying just over 16%, according to my own calculations the inherent value in the run line is something like 5%. In other words, they are juiced to around 21%. In other words, games are decided by more than one run 5% more often than the implied odds of the typical runline
Nope wrong again. The estimate of one run games happen more than you think. Research more about it and you'll see. Every team has about 23% of their games end in run one outcomes. For some teams that play in pitchers stadium like Padres/Mariners/Dodgers , its even higher.
Just think about it , why do books offer run lines with open arms?? They know its a money making machine and sucker bet in the long run.
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