Posted:
#1
I feel like whenever I absolutely love a play it seems to shit the bed more often than not. And maybe it's just because I get nervous hammering the snot outta a game because I know it's not good money management so if/when I do lose it hurts that much more. But man how do we not slam the CUBS for a massive play ??
The first angle that worries me a bit is that this is a rivalry game and as we know in those games the standing don't matter as much as they do in other games. Even when one team is at the top and the other in the cellar the games have a tendency to go either way or be closer than they should be on paper.
But these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The BUCS are 33-35 on the year which is worse than just about anybody expected. But if you did a lil deeper it looks even worse. They started the year winning 4 in a row and 5 of 7. And were actually 15-9 through their first 24 games of the season. Therefore they are 18-26 over their L44 games. They also have lost 4 in a row,9 of 10 and are only 5 and 16 during their last 21 games overall.
The CUBS on the other hand just keep on winning at an amazing pace. They've 2 in a row and have a chance to sweep the 3 game set tonight. They're also insane at home hitting at a 75% clip going 24-8 at Wrigles and are a league best 26 games over 500 overall with a 46-20 mark on the season.
Now the BUCS do have a talented young (Canadian stock) arm on the bump tonight and with not a ton of video on him the CUBS don't have a bunch to work with. And Taillon does have strong numbers through his first 2 starts with a 1-0 record and 1.93 era. However both starts have come against a METS team that is not exactly tearing the cover off the ball recently. So tonight facing the CUBS at home he will get a sizable upgrade in level of competition. And he'll also have the added eyes of a stand alone nationally televised Sunday night game from one of the most historic fields in sport.
His counterpart will be Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks who despite a pedestrian record of 4-6 on the year. Has a very solid 3.05 ERA. And his numbers at Wrigley are top notch going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his 6 home starts this year....conversely he's just 1-5 with a 4.36 era in a half dozen road starts.
So all things considered I just don't see why I shouldn't lay at least a considerable play on the CUBS F5 ML,F5 -0.5,GAME ML and GAME -1.5. And I will also be taking the CUBS to score first and if the line was't insane after that I'd like to add on some more because the crazy line is justified with the CUBS owing a brilliant 30-4 mark when they get on the board first.
I guess the only really concern is why the hell are the best team in the bigs with a starter thats insanely good at home and facing a rookie thats never played on a stage as close to this big before. Just -155 ??? I really expected this line to be pushing -200 given all the factors above.
So is this just great value and an awesome price on the class of the league. Or is this line fishier than Lada Gaga's hoo hoo after a triple encore ???????????????????????????
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