Are run lines in baseball sucker bets?

Does anyone actually profit off playing run lines? 

Run lines on the dog can be fun.  Like when the underdog gets er done by clobbering the faves turrible relief pitcher.  Or throttles the starter. Oakland Pirates Rangers all showed yesterday biggly.

I think the better question is how would you profit if you don’t play run lines ? Unless your betting moneyline dogs all the time or plus 1.5 runlines at plus money laying juice -150 or -200 juice doesn’t make sense.

let’s say you pray to hit 60% out of 10 games for example you still lose because a lot of them are gonna be laying juice. I say grow a pair of balls and play runlines or huge dogs try not to lay juice. Pirates and Rockies ml … kc and red Sox runlines …

thank me later

People probably wont agree with my strategy but i only bet RLs. I just cant pull the trigger on laying a shit ton of juice on a game that lets be honest could go either way. If all your bets are paying plus money if you are half right you come out ahead. If you are the guy paying 180 to 220 juice and you are half right you lose. Even when i like the dog i do the reverse RL and those pay really good if they hit. One i will be playing today is mariners -1.5 at 190. That hits i could lose my next 2 and only be down 10 bucks. Thats how i play anyway. Not saying its the best strategy but i refuse to pay a shit ton of juice on baseball games. Ill take my chances my team doesnt win by just 1. 

@Raider4life22

 Same. I feel weird laying juice. If I do it’s gonna be in a parlay. It’s more of a sucker bet to lay juice if you ask me. Why would I risk 2 to 1 on my money or higher when I can bet on something else that has just a good of a chance hitting.

you can also do live betting run lines if that’s a better options for you. Sometimes i will just wait for whatever team to score first  whether I like them or not. If a team is leading by 1 and the inning is over I bet the runline -1.5 plus 135 or higher as a value bet.

Take yesterday for example rangers get rocked early down 6-0 you could’ve got them at one point in that same inning rangers +8.5 -130 … I got em at moneyline a+240 down 2 with man on second and third and one out. Those are the bets to take.they end up not only winning straight up but they didn’t let blue jays score after 12-6 final. And if that wasn’t degen enough I took it a step further and bet them runline -1.5 at +170 once they were leading 7-6 at the end of that inning. Don’t just lay juice just cause a team is better on paper . Aces can get rocked early in the season just like anyone else.

That’s better than laying -200 juice blindly not knowing how batters are hitting and how pitchers are tossing bull pens,weather etc whatever other factors. I don’t get how people can lay juice all the time and expect to be ahead. I can lose 10 parlays in a row before I hit one but that one parlay will make up for the 10 losing parlays 3 fold.

Yesterday example also look at Julio Uriias for dodgers who is supposed to be a stud vs whatever pitcher for Rockies yesterday I forgot his name . He got lit up early. I’ll take my chances with a dog that won the day before regardless of what team it is or who is pitching. I know it’s a stupid logic but the point Is take your chances with plus money wagers and avoid juice like the plague if you can at all costs…

@wheremychooz

Interesting I played all nba money line dogs last night and came out like +10 units so im starting to understand the difference in + and - and how it doesn’t take as much to be profitable when your taking + instead of - numbers. I’ve always been told to play dogs and unders by friends b/c everything is shaded to favorites and overs. Thanks for your input! 

I generally lay up to -150 on a single wager.

On a parlay ( usually 2teams) I'll go as high as -200 in rare circumstances because it's usually with a lesser favorite or an outright dog for good plus money.

The high juice games are often a sweat fest.

Raider for Life and Wheremychooz are spot on

@Raider4life22

 Me too. A lot of my parlays I go 3 of 4 with the one team that loses it for my parlay only wins by 1 and it’s the first game of the day so it doesn’t give me the chance to hedge but I just accept It and move on… 

@wheremychooz

 agree. You would have to hit at an extremely high clip if all you are doing is betting -150 to 200 favs everyday. My 2 bets today are mariners -1.5 at 190 and going jays -1.5 at 180. I could lose both ofcourse but if i go 1 and 1 i made money.  Now if i was betting on 2 -150 favs id have to hit both to turn a profit going 1 and 1 doesnt do shit for me. 

Yes either play dogs moneyline or fav to win by 2 . Plain and simple. Don’t beat yourself up if they only win by 1. Life goes on and onto the next wager 

@Raider4life22

Keep an eye on the live bet lines if your book offers it. If you have a feeling your team -175 or -200 ml have a good chance of winning and let’s say they are down by one run in the early innings off of a lucky home run but the pitcher still looks sharp by getting a lot strikeouts and  ground outs etc you might be able to catch them at even money or -110 when it’s their turn to bat. On the other hand if you decide to wait for the live game lines to come out and they are leading by one run and the inning is over just take them to win by 2 or more at plus money. But if they start clobbering the other team by 2 or more just leave it alone unless you can catch a line -2.5 or etc at plus money.

Losing on a runline is one thing pushing is another … -1 I’ll bet -1 or moneyline 2/3rds and runline a 1/3rd of my wager .. 

great job explaining folks ,THANKS 

1.) If you calculate that Team A has a solid 70%-80% chance of winning, does it make sense to lay -185?

2.) If you have a 10 sided die that contains 6 odd numbers and 4 even numbers does it make sense to take "even" @ +160?

3.) If Mike Tyson in 1989 is fighting a 12 year old kid, does it make sense to lay 8-1 on Iron Mike? (OK, no implied probability but how many times does the kid get lucky and beat the champ if they fight 200 times? 3? This is most likely a 98.5% probability)

Betting money lines, however lopsided, makes sense when the implied probability in the line doesn't match the calculated probability.

The difference between ML betting on sporting events and ML betting on dice rolls or roulette is that the probability is a constant over time with the dice rolls and roulette.

I'm just using them as an example here to illustrate that yes it does make sense at times to lay heavy wood IF you are able to calculate a real probability in the sporting event and then find a mismatch in the line - this type of handicapping, finding a disparity between your calculated probability vs the line's implied probability, means there is something wrong with the market and one should take advantage of that.

e.g., Kershaw in ST doesn't have his stuff yet opening day he's laying -170 and the LA BP is mediocre. The game is being played in a hitters park and you've got the game figured at 50-50. It opened @ LAD -135 but the market bet it up to -170. The market is wrong, not Vegas. Only a fool does not take the dog +165 here.

my .02

I like laying runlines on away favorites who have a reputation for covering them.

The Dodgers were known last year to cover an absurd amount of RL’s on the road.

More than likely the Dodgers would lose or Win while covering the RL. 
if they lose you saved by paying less for them.

and of course laying the -1.5 with the Road team is to avoid walk off wins or your team getting all 27 outs in the games.

Difference between money line betting and spread betting NBA/MLB/NFL/NHL is that you need to worry about the team wanting to cover the spread or just winning the game. I know there are great methods of calculating how many points a team should score and how many points a team should let up, but there are factors that affect all of that which may not make it into stats, such as NBA foul trouble or NFL pass interference, both due to poor calls by the officials - the better team will still win but may not cover the spread.

Do they have to cover the spread? No, a win is just fine. Resting players when ahead also could keep a team playing for the win to not cover laying points. How many time in hoops does the fouling at the end of the game cause you team who is winning by 15 and covering the 11 to only win by 10?

I believe a few year ago and going back the amt of NFL games where the final score was within 6 points in either direction of the spread was <15% - someone can look that up. But the past two years I'd have to say it was higher. This is why they let you bet teasers and move the line.

This is why in MLB I sometimes like laying -1.

So many times you get burned laying the 1.5

https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/

Also with Alternate RL in MLB if you've got a solid dog you can lay -1 with the dog (ML dog coupled with the dog -1.5 on the alt RL)

Lastly someone once said (Or repeated) "Take ML dogs in MLB if you think the dog can win outright."

It’s all going to wash about the same

I guess from my perspective is in baseball there are no such thing as a sure thing. I know thats true with all sports but baseball is the one sport where even the shit teams will win 60 plus games and the good teams will lose 60 plus games. There have been football games and basketball games where ive said to myself theres no way this team loses to that team and you bet a big chunk on it and feel comfortable doing it. I can honestly say ive never in my life thought in a baseball game no way this team loses to that team. In other sports you  can lay all the juice you want on certain games because the odds of that team losing to a certain team are low. The orioles will win games this year against the jays yanks and rays. The rockies will win games against the dodgers giants and padres. No sure thing in baseball for lack of a better term. I refuse to drink the juice when it comes to baseball unless its a lil sip of 110 to maybe 125 nothing more. 

Here’s a good bet to take oak runline live up 3-1 against rays… you can get a plus money.. why the hell not??? They smashed them yesterday … at plus money you would be crazy not to bet it right now +125

I only bet dogs/+ money in baseball.  And its either 2 or 4 plays in a day.  With 4, I have 3/5 outcomes that lead me to profit on the day.