August 21 Mariners at New York

Mariners Lineup

RF  Ichiro

2B  Figgins

DH  Branyan

3B  Lopez

CF  Gutierrez

1B  Kotchman

C   Bard

LF  Saunders

SS  Hack Wilson

Yankees Lineup

SS  Jeter

RF  Swisher

1B  Teixeira

2B  Cano

DH  Thames

C   Posada

LF  Kearns

CF  Granderson

3B  Nunez

Brian Knight is scheduled Home Plate Ump

like almost everyone else around, i think the yankees win this game, this game is not a toss up . . . but does NYY win this game 68% of the time, or do the Mariners win this game at least 32% of the time ?  i think the answers are no, then yes . . . based on current form and the starters.

would i be shocked if vasquez completely shuts down the mariners, hell no, in fact i expect him to do so.  but would i also be surprised if vargas continues his strong pitching, and someone gets lucky at the plate for the mariners, nope, not at all.  the mariners are playing better than they did earlier.  this game should not be at +210, the yanks should be some where between -160 and -180 . . . the value is on the m's, even though i expect them to lose.

any thoughts on the total 3825.  looks like the M's hitters have some decent numbers against Vasquez:

is OVER 9 the play?

what do you guys think is the best play here?

thanks.

no total play today for me . . . either pitcher good be good, either one could be bad . . . in last night's game, i felt pretty strongly that one (likely felix) would be good, if not both being good.

today, it could go just about any which way, hence to play for me on the total.

if the yankees win in this situation 60% of the time, you lose money backing the yanks

if the mariners win in this situation 40% of time, you make money backing the mariners.

"i expect yanks to win" is consistent with me seeing value on the mariners.

that being said, there is no gaurantee that i'm defining value properly here, or in any other game.

this is going to be a long day at the old ball yard