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Blue’s Baseball System Picks –Fri May 16th

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Blue’s Baseball System Picks –Fri May 16th

 

2-2 on Thursday…Hey JCPSaints..Your White Sox made the cut today….just a coincidence as you brought them up yesterday….but I like the spot they are in. See my thread from yesterday regarding how I have fared in Interleague play the last 11 years…GL to all..

 

April                       24-20           +3.56 Units

May                        32–25           +7.62 Units

Yearly Total              56-45          +11.22 Units

                           (55.67%)       

 
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5 Plays for Friday

 

Date   Time   Pick                         Early Odds

5/16    7:05    Washington             +115

5/15    7:10    Florida                    -131

5/15    7:10    Cincinnati                -118

5/16    8:05    Houston                  -112

5/16    10:10  Chicago White Sox    -105

 
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1.)  Favorites are always to win 1 unit, dogs are always

1 unit to win whatever   the odds are…get the best odds possible. (Example 200 to win 100 on fav’s, 100 to win 200 on dogs for 100 per unit bettors).

2.)    Play the same unit amount all season long.

3.)    Plays will be graded on the final line posted on www.Wagerline.com

 
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By the way.....didn't like the fact that I have 4 favs and only 1 dog..but it's just the way the numbers worked out today...
 
GL
 
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Posted: #5
Good luck Blues, lets beat 'em up in Interleague!!!!
 
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Posted: #6
blues,
Outstanding job thus far.Got a question and an observation.Do you ever notice how underdogs seem to come in on Mondays and Fridays?
Those seem to be the dog nights of the week.The only reason I think this may be true, is because teams are coming off long road trips and starting homestands which they seem to lose as favorites.
 
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Posted: #7
GL today Blue
 
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Posted: #8
hey Mac...I have been doing some thinking..and I know it will not be a popular opionion..but I think the Tribe needs........gulp.......BONDS.
 
Short porch in right field he would have a field day with..Get Hafner back on 1st...it would surely shake up the lineup and maybe get everyones head screwed on straight...
 
TSK..give me through the weekend and I'll try and post something about dogs/favs vs each day of the week..there might be something there..but blanket bets generally do not hold up...We'll find out though.
 
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Posted: #9
hey blue, go get'em tonight
gl
 
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Posted: #10
Thanks for replying blues.Yeah, even in hoops the dogs seem to come in more on Mon./Fri. And believe it or not favs seem to come in on Tues thru thurs.
 
Also I wonder if you have ever read this book....WITHOUT A TOUT: HOW TO PICK A WINNING TEAM by Miller, Tom
 
I'm thinking of getting it.But would like to get some reviews.
 
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Posted: #11
please tell me how much is a unit?,,,and iam thinking cubs
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by blues2112:

hey Mac...I have been doing some thinking..and I know it will not be a popular opionion..but I think the Tribe needs........gulp.......BONDS.
 
Short porch in right field he would have a field day with..Get Hafner back on 1st...it would surely shake up the lineup and maybe get everyones head screwed on straight...
 
TSK..give me through the weekend and I'll try and post something about dogs/favs vs each day of the week..there might be something there..but blanket bets generally do not hold up...We'll find out though.


Well ...I am not a bonds hater by any means however I think that we might want to go another way if your thinking they need more power.

What I think is this C.C is done after this year he is gonna want Santana money and we will most likely let him walk.  I would like to see the Tribe atleast get something for him around the All-Star break.  Our rotation is pretty solid and I know it is a blow to let him go but if he leaves in the off season anyway why not pick up another big hitter.


 
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Posted: #13
somebody tell me how much money is a unit?  please
 
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Posted: #14
hey blue ive seen some good things coming from you.
im new to this ... but you keep up the great work
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Sambola:

somebody tell me how much money is a unit?  please

A unit is whatever your standard bet is -

Ex:  I believe that for Blues, his unit is $1000 / game.  So, he's telling you that when he bets a dog, it's a $1000 to win whatever, and when he bets a fave, it's whatever to win $1000.

Talking in units is a way of normalizing these discussions across different bettors.  Your unit may be $100, mine may be $20. 

GL to All, let's get 'em today Blues, I'm feeling a 4-1 coming.

 
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Posted: #16
thanks jackie
 
 
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Posted: #17
Also wanted to add for Sambola:
 
an important aspect of this, or any other thoughtful system, is discipline.  Stick to the system - which means make standardized bets (one unit each - no 5-star plays or other crap;  don't chase; don't double up; no parlays).
 
this is the difference between betting to make money and gambling.  baseball lends itself to disciplined, rational approaches such as this (there are plays every day - you're in this for the long haul), the "thrill" that can be had here is in sticking to the system. 
 
I got a little loose myself yesterday with Atlanta and LA Angels (not in Blues picks) and got burned.
 
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Posted: #18
Good luck today Blues.  St. Louis kind of caved in on us yesterday but at least we finally got a come back with San Francisco.
 
Just out of curiosity, what % of your bankroll do you wager on each game?  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #19
If you use a local, your bankroll should be $2000 for a $100 per unit bettor
 
If you use the internet, it should be $4000 for every $100 per unit bettor - the reason for this is you will need to be able to survive the downturn without burning through your bankroll.  With a local, no money changes hands until payday - which for me is every 2 Fridays..
 
So, the important part of this system, is that if you choose $100 per unit as your base unit, leave it there.  Do not change up or down unit amounts...UNTIL you bankroll grows and you can afford to go to $200 a play or whatever..but do not vary your units..once you decide to go up in units..Leave it there and play $200 until your bankroll grows....
 
I can tell you that I start with a set unit amount each season and I do not change it. Until the next season. I do this for Basketball and Baseballl every year.
 
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Posted: #20
cmh947s I will not take credit for this...I cut and paste, but this is why a set unit amount works, and a % of bankroll approach does not.
 
There is no % of bankroll I use....Many money management systems that I’ve seen suggest varying your standard wager based on a fixed percentage of the current size of your bankroll each week. Thus, if you started the season with a bankroll of $10,000 and bet 5% of your bankroll on each game, you’d be starting the season betting $500 per game. If you won $1000 that first week, you’d then be betting 5% of $11,000, or $550, on each game the next week. If you had lost $1000 then you’d be wagering 5% of $9,000, or $450. And as the bankroll rises and falls, so would your betting unit for that week. The problem with this system is two-fold. Let’s say that you are in a 10 week season and you bet 10 games per week. You start the season with a $10,000 bankroll and bet 5% of your current bankroll on each game for that week. Below is a week by week breakdown of that 10 week season in which that person won 56% of their bets.

Week Bankroll x 0.05 = $ Per Game Wins-Losses Profit/Loss
Week 1 $10,000 x 0.05 = $500 8-2 +$2,900
Week 2 $12,900 x 0.05 = $650 7-3 +$2,405
Week 3 $15,305 x 0.05 = $770 4-6 -$2,002
Week 4 $13,303 x 0.05 = $670 6-4 +$1,072
Week 5 $14,375 x 0.05 = $720 7-3 +$2,664
Week 6 $17,039 x 0.05 = $850 5-5 - $425
Week 7 $16,614 x 0.05 = $830 6-4 +$1,328
Week 8 $17,942 x 0.05 = $900 5-5 -$450
Week 9 $17,492 x 0.05 = $870 6-4 +$1,392
Week 10 $18,884 x 0.05 = $940 2-8 -$6,392
Total $12,492 56-44

This person profited $2,492 on a 56-44 season, but had he bet $500 per game all season long, he would have been up $3,800 ($500 x 56 - $550 x 44). The problem was that the best part of his season was the first two weeks, when he was wagering the smallest amounts per game. Upon building a substantial profit, his worst week (the final week) came when he was betting the most. There is no reason why games in the middle or end of a profitable season should be worth a larger wager than bets made early in the season when the chance of winning each wager is the same.

 
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Posted: #21
I really don't know bro, but all I could say is to set in a value line that is equal through the season.  In fact you're better off playing the sequence of the games psychology than the money management. To think above that, the money management you had was right, and it is never wrong to not have money management in place.  The thought lies right in the toughen playoffs, and when teams are strenching for the playoffs. I think thats why people have a hard time of any week at that point.  I can't help it, but skip that week since that point is hard to break for any capper.  I usually look to the best pros who perfrom well during that part of the season. Skip the capping myself, or any betting system because even the emotion played than are above 2x the regular season break games.
 
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Posted: #22
Thanks Blues, I appreciate it.  That's exactly what I was looking for.
 
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Posted: #23
Good Morning Blue!
 
After the St. Louis meltdown, it was nice to do a turn-around with our Houston play.
 
Curious play on Cincy, since they are awful in 1st games of series, but you do know the Tribe.
 
As to my Mets, plenty of turmoil going on.  The media is starting to smell blood with Randolph.  Billy Wagner is venting on teamates again, and rightfully so.  Last year LoDuca did it and he was banished.  IMO, Randolph has lost his clubhouse and is a dead-man walking.  There is no sense of urgency with this team.  Way too laid back!   
 
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Posted: #24
Great stuff Blues, really hope my boys play their part for ya in San Fran.
Bring it on & lets hope it's a very kind weekend!!!!!
Much appreciated plays & info as always.
TOP STUFF!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
traderX..I thinkyou are right..but I have a tendency to get greedy when I start to mess with my units...and it almost ALWAYS bites me in the ass...So I have learned that my dumb ass needs to stick to one unit amount all season long and forget about second mortgages to pay 3-Finger-Louie off
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