Posted:
#1
-----------------------------------------------------------
MLB 2016
-----------------------------------------------------------
Summary
Record: 126-88-13 (59%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $107 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,284.80 (+34.98 Units), +13.44% Return on Risk
Splits
ML: 71-48 (60%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-8-2 (58%)
O/U: 42-28-9 (60%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Performance History
-----------------------------------------------------------
Overall
2016: 126-88-13 (59%), +13.44% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day
2016: 36-24-5 (60%), +16.08% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
-----------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday
-----------------------------------------------------------
0-3, -$375.00
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102285120
These types of days are more likely then you'd suspect, even when you're hitting at a high rate. Here is my season breakdown:
0-2: 2 times
0-3: 2 times
1-3: 5 times
1-4: 1 time
Basically, 10 different days where I've ended down 2+ games of wagers out of 52 days of placed wagers (almost 20% of the time). We survive and we move on.
I didn't like anything on Thursday's card at first glance on Wednesday night, and never got a chance to review the lines again so I passed altogether.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Friday
-----------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland Indians FG -121, Kluber/Santiago
Angels are coming off a 6 game road trip on the East Coast and Santiago is really struggling at the moment. Santiago's control has been highlight suspect, as has his ability to keep the ball in the yard. On the other hand, outside of his rough outing vs. Texas he has looked much better over his last few starts. I really believe he is turning it around. Don't let me down Napoli!
Texas Rangers FG +142, Holland/Iwakuma
Once again, save the taking the Rangers BS. I capped Holland and the Rangers at just under a 48% win probability (+110 line). The win probability implied by this line is just a hair over 41%. You play games where you feel the lines are mispriced and this - in my opinion - is yet another mispriced Rangers line. So far, 18 side wagers have been placed on the Rangers at a weighted average line of +108, and they have won 70% of those games (13-5). It's doubtful these lines continue to remain as cheap as they have been.
Miami/Arizona Over 9 FG -120, Nicolino/Corbin
There will be runs.
Few notes:
MLB 2016
-----------------------------------------------------------
Summary
Record: 126-88-13 (59%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $107 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,284.80 (+34.98 Units), +13.44% Return on Risk
Splits
ML: 71-48 (60%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-8-2 (58%)
O/U: 42-28-9 (60%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Performance History
-----------------------------------------------------------
Overall
2016: 126-88-13 (59%), +13.44% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day
2016: 36-24-5 (60%), +16.08% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
-----------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday
-----------------------------------------------------------
0-3, -$375.00
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102285120
These types of days are more likely then you'd suspect, even when you're hitting at a high rate. Here is my season breakdown:
0-2: 2 times
0-3: 2 times
1-3: 5 times
1-4: 1 time
Basically, 10 different days where I've ended down 2+ games of wagers out of 52 days of placed wagers (almost 20% of the time). We survive and we move on.
I didn't like anything on Thursday's card at first glance on Wednesday night, and never got a chance to review the lines again so I passed altogether.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Friday
-----------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland Indians FG -121, Kluber/Santiago
Angels are coming off a 6 game road trip on the East Coast and Santiago is really struggling at the moment. Santiago's control has been highlight suspect, as has his ability to keep the ball in the yard. On the other hand, outside of his rough outing vs. Texas he has looked much better over his last few starts. I really believe he is turning it around. Don't let me down Napoli!
Texas Rangers FG +142, Holland/Iwakuma
Once again, save the taking the Rangers BS. I capped Holland and the Rangers at just under a 48% win probability (+110 line). The win probability implied by this line is just a hair over 41%. You play games where you feel the lines are mispriced and this - in my opinion - is yet another mispriced Rangers line. So far, 18 side wagers have been placed on the Rangers at a weighted average line of +108, and they have won 70% of those games (13-5). It's doubtful these lines continue to remain as cheap as they have been.
Miami/Arizona Over 9 FG -120, Nicolino/Corbin
There will be runs.
Few notes:
- Pirates line looks great at first glance. Wacha has been absolutely terrible and the Pirates have a significant edge in the starting pitching department with Cole taking the ball. However, the one day road trip to Colorado concerns me. This one looks like a no play.
- Harvey is coming off two solid starts after "fixing" something in his mechanics. The Mets @ -120 looks appealing, but the Mets' offense as of late is somewhat concerning. I have this one at -140 without making any adjustments.
0
BOL
Hot Forum Topics
