Bob's MLB Friday *** 6.10.16 ***

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MLB 2016
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Summary
Record: 126-88-13 (59%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $107 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,284.80 (+34.98 Units), +13.44% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 71-48 (60%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-8-2 (58%)
O/U: 42-28-9 (60%)

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Performance History
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Overall
2016: 126-88-13 (59%), +13.44% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 36-24-5 (60%), +16.08% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Wednesday
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0-3, -$375.00
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102285120

These types of days are more likely then you'd suspect, even when you're hitting at a high rate. Here is my season breakdown:

0-2: 2 times
0-3: 2 times
1-3: 5 times
1-4: 1 time

Basically, 10 different days where I've ended down 2+ games of wagers out of 52 days of placed wagers (almost 20% of the time). We survive and we move on.

I didn't like anything on Thursday's card at first glance on Wednesday night, and never got a chance to review the lines again so I passed altogether.

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Friday
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Cleveland Indians FG -121, Kluber/Santiago
Angels are coming off a 6 game road trip on the East Coast and Santiago is really struggling at the moment. Santiago's control has been highlight suspect, as has his ability to keep the ball in the yard. On the other hand, outside of his rough outing vs. Texas he has looked much better over his last few starts. I really believe he is turning it around. Don't let me down Napoli!

Texas Rangers FG +142, Holland/Iwakuma
Once again, save the taking the Rangers BS. I capped Holland and the Rangers at just under a 48% win probability (+110 line). The win probability implied by this line is just a hair over 41%. You play games where you feel the lines are mispriced and this - in my opinion - is yet another mispriced Rangers line. So far, 18 side wagers have been placed on the Rangers at a weighted average line of +108, and they have won 70% of those games (13-5). It's doubtful these lines continue to remain as cheap as they have been.

Miami/Arizona Over 9 FG -120, Nicolino/Corbin
There will be runs.

Few notes:

• Pirates line looks great at first glance. Wacha has been absolutely terrible and the Pirates have a significant edge in the starting pitching department with Cole taking the ball. However, the one day road trip to Colorado concerns me. This one looks like a no play.
• Harvey is coming off two solid starts after "fixing" something in his mechanics. The Mets @ -120 looks appealing, but the Mets' offense as of late is somewhat concerning. I have this one at -140 without making any adjustments.

I will revisit the card tomorrow. Good luck gents!

Pirates gave very little effort today and (wisely) left Locke out there to take a slaughtering, so as not to do too much damage to the bullpen before a much more important series. Probably looking forward, but whether or not that pays off tomorrow is anyone's guess. Just FFT

BOB-

He pays entirely too much attention to his wife, kids and job. Not nearly degenerate enough for this site. You just have to get used to it.

I like your analytical approach to handicapping. I look forward to your plays.

BOB, I appreciate your selective approach and ability to pass on days with poor cards. I really like it when you see value in the division leading Rangers. Let's all get paid.

Can't force it. Long season and there will be plenty of days where there are a number of games with value. Other days, not so much. I have placed wagers in roughly 80% of days where they have been games.

"On the other hand, outside of his rough outing vs. Texas he has looked much better over his last few starts. I really believe he is turning it around. Don't let me down Napoli!"

Damn, you are almost talking me out of it here.

That part is supposed to be about Kluber. I was rushing. I think it's pretty clear what I am saying. Let's not troll. Thanks.

The fact that there are people with jobs and family that require attention is a foreign though to some! I love MLB as much as anyone, but - as a man in his early 30s - those two things take precedent in my life.

like all of em! BOL

With you on the Tribe and Rangers 

Please, anyone find a legitimate reason to sway me away from taking Bo1.Sox -5 laying +110?!?!?!

OP what did you cap the cubs game at?

Line is 9.5 B.o.B does it still look like a solid pick??

^^^^

Cubs win probability of 72% (-260 odds). Better "true" odds than that implied by the line, but there are games on the board w/ better risk/reward than this one.

I like the MIA/ARI over at 9 better than 9.5, but I arrived at a 10.4 expected run total (median ---> 50/50). Definitely still playable.

I was referring to the Arizona game going over btw.

What's the confusion?

I responded to two different questions. The one from bigDave (re: the Cubs ML) and the one from you (MIA/ARI over).

I can't believe that Matt Harvey has never faced the Brewers, but it's a fact.This alone makes the Mets worth a play.

Best,
RT2

 BOL

BOL BOB!

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Friday *** Updated ***
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Cleveland Indians FG -121, Kluber/Santiago

Pittsburgh Pirates -1 RL +111, Wacha/Cole
*Use a combination of the ML -135 and -1.5 RL +160 rather than taking the -1 as an option. The book I use for -1 RLs has it at +106, which means you're giving up 5pts for being lazy.

Texas Rangers FG +142, Holland/Iwakuma

Miami/Arizona Over 9 FG -120, Nicolino/Corbin

Hi Bob! New to covers, I mostly cap football, but I love and respect your plays and insight and same goes for you Key. BOL today! 

Good luck BOB