All Forums | MLB Betting

Bob's MLB Saturday *** 4.30.16 ***

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3697
Posts: 31
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #1
MLB 2016 --- Overall
YTD: 29-28-5 (51%) *** +0.22% Return on Risk ***
ML: 15-20 (43%)
F5: 0-1-0 (0%)
RL: 2-1-0 (67%)
O/U: 12-6-5 (67%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $9,391 / $9,404.34 (+$13.34, +0.14%)

MLB 2016 --- Picks of the Day
YTD: 9-5-4 (64%) *** +19.63% Return on Risk ***
ML: 4-4 (50%)
F5: 0-0-0 (0%)
RL: 1-0-0 (50%)
O/U: 4-1-4 (80%)

MLB 2015
Overall: 298-267-32 (53%) *** +6.46% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 108-87-12 (55%) *** +14.17% Return on Risk ***

MLB 2014
Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Season Win Totals (Pending)
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 81.5 (-130), Risk $100
Baltimore Orioles Over 79.5 (+150), Risk $100
Kansas City Royals Over 84.5 (+100), Risk $100

Friday's Results
1-2-1, -$74.29

Washington Nationals FG, -124 POD (+$113.71)
Los Angeles Angels FG, -117 (-$94.00)
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Over 4 F5, -120 (-$94.00)
Chicago/Baltimore Over 4 F5, -130 POD (+$0.00)

Saturday's Card

Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) -1 RL, +100

Washington Nationals (Ross) FG, +118
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 22004
Posted: #2
Getting an early start on tomorrow 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2016
Posts: 64
Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

Getting an early start on tomorrow

Whats Fg?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 2349
Posted: #4
like em both, bet em both.


Birds on bat you are under appreciated around here. You are damned good capper 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 648
Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Mlb69:


Whats Fg?


Fg means Full game
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2015
Posts: 483
Posted: #6
Twins +123 Saturday.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2016
Posts: 64
Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Levi00:

Quote Originally Posted by Mlb69:

Whats Fg?
Fg means Full game

Thanks
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2016
Posts: 64
Posted: #8
How about As ml and cubs -1.5? Thanks
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #9
Saturday's Card *** Updated ***

PODs

Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) -1 RL, +100

Kansas City/Seattle Over 4 F5, -115

Regular Plays

Washington Nationals (Ross) FG, +118

Texas Rangers (Holland) FG, -113

Philadelphia Phillies (Eikhoff) F5, +115

Houston/Oakland Over 4 F5, -115
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Mlb69:

How about As ml and cubs -1.5? Thanks


I think the Houston/Oakland line is about right. Tossup and I would probably lean A's.

Crappy weather in the windy city today. Teheran can be very sharp when he's on and - despite the Braves having offensive woes so far this year - Lackey is about as hittable as they come when he's off. I actually looked pretty hard at Braves F5 (first 5 innings) at +190. The -1.5 RL is slightly juiced and I wouldnt play it there. Moneyline @ -220 is rich as well. Good luck!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

like em both, bet em both.


Birds on bat you are under appreciated around here. You are damned good capper 



Thank you, sir
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #12
We agree on most and we have both turned the corner, looking forward to the month of May and the more consistent numbers we are seeing now.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

 
Birds on bat you are under appreciated around here. You are damned good capper 

You got that right!
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 32292
Posted: #14
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 130
Posted: #15
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2004
Posts: 22937
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:



Birds on bat you are under appreciated around here. You are damned good capper 

Agree
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2014
Posts: 1571
Posted: #17
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #18
I thought I was done, but I've been watching the Mets line and see enough value to bite as a POD. I was originally wavering between the Mets ML and Phillies F5 as my 6th - and final - play.

However, the line movement from -210 to -172 (5dimes) lowers the implied probability by 4.5%, which gives us the > 5% probability differential (i.e., difference between probability implied by the line and my calculated win probability) I typically look for when evaluating line value. I calculate the difference to be ~9 percentage points.

I rarely play more than 4-5 games, but I am going to stick what has been working for me over the last 2+ years. When you see opportunities you play them.

Saturday's Card *** Final ***

PODs

Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) -1 RL, +100

New York Mets (deGrom) FG, -172

Kansas City/Seattle Over 4 F5, -115

Regular Plays

Washington Nationals (Ross) FG, +118

Texas Rangers (Holland) FG, -113

Philadelphia Phillies (Eikhoff) F5, +115

Houston/Oakland Over 4 F5, -115
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #19
At -172 my Mets probability differential jumps to +12.2%
Let's ride this pony home

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2014
Posts: 2515
Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:



Birds on bat you are under appreciated around here. You are damned good capper 



I concur.  Been following birds since last season and knew it was only a matter of time before he got into the +money this year. 

Looks like birds is having a nice day!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #21
Man, that Phillies game was frustrating... took a 3-1 lead going into the 5th with 6/7/8 coming up for the Indians. Indians score 2 to tie the game (2 out, tying single).

Phillies get the first two on in the bottom half... runners on 1st and 3rd with nobody out. Bad base running and come out of the inning without scoring.

Push.

Boooo.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 2349
Posted: #22
I won the two bets you pointed me toward.


2 and 0


yeaaaa
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2016
Posts: 138
Posted: #23
Hey BOB what do you think about the over 3 1/2 F5 and over 7 in KC game?

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2016
Posts: 138
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

Man, that Phillies game was frustrating... took a 3-1 lead going into the 5th with 6/7/8 coming up for the Indians. Indians score 2 to tie the game (2 out, tying single).

Phillies get the first two on in the bottom half... runners on 1st and 3rd with nobody out. Bad base running and come out of the inning without scoring.

Push.

Boooo.

That was really frustrating..I was on Philly F5 also..coulnd't believe they didn't cover that play....
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by HoopsStar:

Hey BOB what do you think about the over 3 1/2 F5 and over 7 in KC game?



I have it as a POD. I placed my wager when the line was 4 runs.

3.5 is a great line. Welke skews toward overs. Miley has been terrible (32 hits in 23 innings) and I suspect the Mariners will string together a few runs themselves.
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.