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Bob's MLB Thursday *** 5.21.15 ***

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Hey bob any source of contact outside of covers?
 
Captain
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Posted: #27
bleeping Tigers. First they blow the 5-0 lead by giving up 4 runs in the 7th/8th innings.

Then they have a chance to score in the bottom of the 8th (runner on 3rd w/ nobody out) and fail salvage the -1 RL!

A push is better than a loss any day of the week (assuming they hold the lead), but my -1 RL PODs are freaky this season.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by tgsportspicks:

Hey bob any source of contact outside of covers?


PM me and I can share another form of contact
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

bleeping Tigers. First they blow the 5-0 lead by giving up 4 runs in the 7th/8th innings.

Then they have a chance to score in the bottom of the 8th (runner on 3rd w/ nobody out) and fail salvage the -1 RL!

A push is better than a loss any day of the week (assuming they hold the lead), but my -1 RL PODs are freaky this season.

absolutely infuriating to lose a play like this! 
 
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Posted: #30
I honestly was concerned to bet against Houston-they've been hot all year and pissed that they get no respect...there's still value for a while but they were dogs vs. the A's and they won...plus Detroit is showing nothing..bullpen, hitting, I'm not betting against Houston
 
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Posted: #31
2-0-1, +122.59 / +72.97% Return on Risk

951 Arizona Diamondbacks (A. Bradley) FG, +128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

954 New York Mets (J. deGrom) FG, -110 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

966 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) -1 RL, -113 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes) *** PUSH ***

 
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Posted: #32
Nice calls today, I got burned by the Detroit -1.5 run line. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #33
BoB can you briefly explain how you come up with ur own lines? Like you said u had the dbacks at -115, I would love to know how u compute ur own version of the lines...I believe you may have explained it in the ps but I can't remember....just if you get some time one of these days I would appreciate it, good luck
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #34
Nice day
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Prospect
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Posted: #35
Hey Bird, nice going today. Do you have an opinion on the Padres/ Cubs over/Under for tonight?
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:

Hey Bird, nice going today. Do you have an opinion on the Padres/ Cubs over/Under for tonight?

Tough game, but I would lean over. I arrived at a -7.5 line when I was evaluating O/U plays today. I have to see 1+ runs in value to play run totals.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by jz5237:

BoB can you briefly explain how you come up with ur own lines? Like you said u had the dbacks at -115, I would love to know how u compute ur own version of the lines...I believe you may have explained it in the ps but I can't remember....just if you get some time one of these days I would appreciate it, good luck

You opened up a can of worms with this question!

Too much to explain/cover in a concise manner. But, basically I have a methodology that I use to estimate expected run production (and a distribution) for each team, based on various factors (e.g., starting pitchers, bullpens, lefty/righty splits, etc.). I adjust for other variables as well (e.g., recent performance, bullpen usage, travel, umpires when available, etc.). I arrive at win probabilities and convert them to "fair value" lines.

I always cap the games before I look at the lines. When I see lines where the implied probabilities meaningfully differ from the ones I arrived at, I evaluate them further and decide whether to play them. This is why you will see me lock in plays often times as soon as they are posted.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #38
Thank you Bird. Much appreciated brother.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #39
I locked in the over 7, so we will see what happens the rest of the game. Two runs by Bryant 2 Run shot. I had a 2 U win on Detroit earlier as well. Thanks again for the input Bird!
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