Bob's MLB Tuesday *** 5.31.16 ***

Question

MLB 2016 --- OverallYTD:101-75-12 (57%) *** &#x2B;11.39% Return on Risk ***ML: 54-42 (56%)F5: 2-4-2 (33%)RL: 11-6-2 (65%)O/U: 34-23-8 (60%)Starting / Current Bankroll: $9,391 / $11,638.92 (&#x2B;$2,247.92, &#x2B;23.94%)MLB 2016 --- Picks of the DayYTD: 29-20-4 (59%) *** &#x2B;15.36% Return on Risk ***ML: 14-10 (58%)F5: 0-0-0 (0%)RL: 3-2-0 (60%)O/U: 12-8-4 (60%)MLB 2015Overall: 298-267-32 (53%) *** &#x2B;6.46% Return on Risk ***PODs: 108-87-12 (55%) *** &#x2B;14.17% Return on Risk ***MLB 2014Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** &#x2B;4.13% Return on Risk ***PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** &#x2B;16.60% Return on Risk ***Season Win Totals (Pending)Arizona Diamondbacks Over 81.5 (-130), Risk $100Baltimore Orioles Over 79.5 (&#x2B;150), Risk $100Kansas City Royals Over 84.5 (&#x2B;100), Risk $100Monday3-2-1, &#x2B;$49.73https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&amp;sub=102282354Tuesday&#x27;s CardBoston Red Sox FG &#x2B;109, Rodriguez/GausmanSt. Louis Cardinals FG -150, Leake/PeraltaHouston/Arizona Over 9 FG &#x2B;100, McCuller/Corbin

BirdsOnBat · Answer

MLB 2016 --- OverallYTD:101-75-12 (57%) *** &#x2B;11.39% Return on Risk ***ML: 54-42 (56%)F5: 2-4-2 (33%)RL: 11-6-2 (65%)O/U: 34-23-8 (60%)Starting / Current Bankroll: $9,391 / $11,638.92 (&#x2B;$2,247.92, &#x2B;23.94%)MLB 2016 --- Picks of the DayYTD: 29-20-4 (59%) *** &#x2B;15.36% Return on Risk ***ML: 14-10 (58%)F5: 0-0-0 (0%)RL: 3-2-0 (60%)O/U: 12-8-4 (60%)MLB 2015Overall: 298-267-32 (53%) *** &#x2B;6.46% Return on Risk ***PODs: 108-87-12 (55%) *** &#x2B;14.17% Return on Risk ***MLB 2014Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** &#x2B;4.13% Return on Risk ***PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** &#x2B;16.60% Return on Risk ***Season Win Totals (Pending)Arizona Diamondbacks Over 81.5 (-130), Risk $100Baltimore Orioles Over 79.5 (&#x2B;150), Risk $100Kansas City Royals Over 84.5 (&#x2B;100), Risk $100Monday3-2-1, &#x2B;$49.73https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&amp;sub=102282354Tuesday&#x27;s CardBoston Red Sox FG &#x2B;109, Rodriguez/GausmanSt. Louis Cardinals FG -150, Leake/PeraltaHouston/Arizona Over 9 FG &#x2B;100, McCuller/Corbin

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Curious to get feedback on a potential new format. I would remove most of the record detail (e.g., splitting out by wager type).

Bankroll
Beginning / Current: $9,391.00 / $11,638.92
Profit: +$2,247.92 (+23.94%)
Average Line / Wager Size: -108 / $104.95

Overall Record
2016: 101-75-12 (57%), +11.39% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk ***
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk ***

Picks of the Day Record
2016: 29-20-4 (59%), +15.36% Return on Risk ***
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk ***
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk ***

KingScorpio · Answer

Do what makes YOU comfortable

Julespussy · Answer

Much better! Get rid of previous years as well - you have enough sample size from this year for it to hold up now!

Julespussy · Answer

Actually keep the splits as they help show your relative strengths. But get rid of previous yearsAnd keep posting winners....!

HighwayToHell · Answer

Keep the previous years records. It shows consistency over time.

undermysac · Answer

Hey Birds,I looked long and hard at Boston last night, any concern about Eduardo&#x27;s 28 inning stint in the minors? His #&#x27;s were pedestrian at best, makes me lean toward the over.Bol on the card today

mbiddy · Answer

gl tonight BoB...we are both on a very similar run, i was getting worried there for a while i think its good to see the breakdown..even for your sake to see what type of bets have the best return

BRod1979 · Answer

what do you think about Houston vs Arizona ML...I know McCullers is coming off a decent start so i feel he is due for a stinker as he is still trying to round out into season shape...Not to mention Arizona has lost been around .500 the last 10 games and i think Corbin is a better pitcher at the moment...

Bigdave117 · Answer

Why play Cardinals moneyline instead of runline?

Every win the Cards have had on the road this year has been by 3+ runs and they're facing a badly struggling pitcher in a great hitters park. They should win by at least 4-5

BRod1979 · Answer

keyword they "should win" by that much, peralta can&#x27;t keep sucking forever, i think St. Louis wins outright but not more then -1.5...Remi RL and hight Moneylines are bookies favorite bets

Bigdave117 · Answer

There&#x27;s no part of Peralta&#x27;s profiles that leads you to believe that his struggles will change. His peripheral numbers are horrible, doesn&#x27;t get many Ks, walks a lot of batters. He&#x27;s badly struggled at home and in his career stats vs STL. STL offense is pacing at an all time great pace. They may put up a 10 spotonly way they don&#x27;t win by 3-4&#x2B; runs is if Leake gets hammered

Bigdave117 · Answer

also milwaukee&#x27;s home park is #9 in the league for most favorable for hitters with a huge edge of homerun hitting teams - STL&#x27;s biggest strength is the homerun ball. The more you look at this, the more you really love it

cjm2008 · Answer

On the Red Sox also

BRod1979 · Answer

well the play the game today, so we will see...i think Leake gets hammered and they pull one out Late in the 8th for a win. But just by 1 :)

Bigdave117 · Answer

I think I&#x27;m playing cards team total over 5 too you guys. I just don&#x27;t see any way they don&#x27;t explode in this game. I follow the cards pretty closely being a cubs fan and they really clobber bad pitching...Peralta is awful

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Tuesday&#x27;s Card *** Updated ***St. Louis Cardinals FG -150, Leake/PeraltaHouston/Arizona Over 9 FG &#x2B;100, McCuller/CorbinBoston Red Sox FG &#x2B;109, Rodriguez/GausmanMinnesota/Oakland Over 4 F5 -135, Duffey/Surkamp

KeyElement · Answer

I think you have had enough external advce, so............BOL

fadeORdie · Answer

Your stats indicate your PODs are hitting at a higher rate - consistently. I don't know how you handicap games, but wouldn't it be wiser to not bet on your regular plays but increase the wager amount on your PODs?

Just a thought, maybe I'm not interpretating this correctly.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

I cap my daily amount of risk taken at 7.5% of bankroll.Some days I scale my PODs are 1.50% of bankroll if I don&#x27;t plan to have more than 3-4 plays. Otherwise, all bets are flat 1% of bankroll (~$115 right now). Although, i scaled PODs at 1.50% on Sat/Sun. I mainly started tracking them (and highlighting) since other people asked me to do it a few years back.As far as relative returns go... my overall record is more significant statistically, since only about 25-30% of my picks are PODs. Back of the envelope math tells me I am returning about 10% on risk for regular plays (so about 5% points lower than PODs). I have become more selective over time - as evidenced by the number of plays decreasing each year - and the differential in return between regular and PODs have been converging as a result (each year). Very few people are going to be able to scale bets effectively. My preference would be to just change my selection criteria altogether.It&#x27;s possible that I transition to only wagering on what I would - today - consider PODs and increasing my wager size to 2% of bankroll. Before I made a drastic change, I wanted to track it (need evidence to support a change). In the meantime, I continue to learn from both my mistakes and successes so there is value (for me, at least) in experimenting.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Lastly, a 10% return on risk is VERY good, which is about what I&#x27;ve returned on regular plays. Not playing games that produce 10% RoR would be blasphemy!A few years back, people used to sweat feartheweb. he was a talented capper with a high $ P/L (north of $20K at times), but his return on risk was much lower (&lt; 4%) than most would assume. There were far better cappers to follow.My goal going into the season is to return 5%&#x2B;

ghuk123 · Answer

Great record birdsonbat.How confident are you on cardinals today? I&#x27;m looking for 1 solid play today and I&#x27;m torn between cubs ans cardinals. Thanks

Bob's MLB Tuesday * 5.31.16 *

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