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Bob's Tuesday MLB Picks *** 8.19.14 ***

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Tuesday's Card *** 8/19/2014 ***

Travel day, so I don't have my spreadsheet tracker to update YTD totals and don't have much time for my usual write-ups. Yesterday was a 2-4 day (Chicago F5 and Mariners ML were brutal) and down a few units. Will update everything for tomorrow.

Might be 1-2 more plays, but I am waiting for the lineups.

Best of luck everyone!

Sides

Los Angeles Angels (J Weaver) F5/FG, -125/-123 --- 1.50% of Bankroll (POD)

Seattle Mariners (H Iwakuma) ML, -154 --- 1.50% of Bankroll (POD)
Iwakuma has been in top form over the last 2 months, going 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA. This will also be the first time the Phillies have faced him. Burnett - on the other hand - has been struggling and has a 5.16 ERA over his last 10 starts, with the Phillies going 1-9. Yesterday was a disappointment, but I feel the Mariners get it done today.

Baltimore Orioles (C Tillman) ML, -109 --- 1.50% of Bankroll

Houston Astros (B Oberholtzer) F5, +142 --- 1.00% of Bankroll

Totals

Texas (Mikolas)/Miami (Cosart) Over 4 F5, -120 --- 1.00% of Bankroll

Baltimore (Tillman)/Chicago (Quintana) Under 5 F5, -130 --- 1.00% of Bankroll (POD)
Baltimore (Tillman)/Chicago (Quintana) Under 9 FG, -120 --- 0.50% of Bankroll

Cincinnati (Simon)/St. Louis (Lackey) Under 8 FG, -125 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
 
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Bol
 
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gl  man . Im going to ask this quietly as this team has burned us many any times. Do you like the Blue Jays tonight?

 

 

 
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Like the Os under. GL
 
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Good luck today BirdsOnBat.  Yesterday sucked for a lot of people I think.  I feel if Washington lost, we would have heard a lot of squealing from  those betting the big chalk.  As it was, Seattle was painful for me also.  Oh well, gotta turn the page.

I'm with you on Seattle, Baltimore, Baltimore F5 under (although I got it at 4.5), and Houston F5.

I like the St. Louis under also, but my book has it at 7.5 right now.  Will monitor to see if it goes back to 8.  I felt yesterday was unlucky for the St. Louis under.  That 3 run HR by Cincy was the difference.
 
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GL birds  M's  also like the rest of the card
 
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Any plays on the 2 big underdogs today?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by real_talk:

gl  man . Im going to ask this quietly as this team has burned us many any times. Do you like the Blue Jays tonight?

 

 


not a huge fan of the Blue Jays tonight for a few reasons. Their offense just hasn't been getting it done (3 runs per game in August), and they have now lost 11 of their last 15 games. The Brewers are playing good baseball. I probably need to see more out of Fiers before I bet against him, as he has looked great in his last few outings.
 
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gl

 
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Quote Originally Posted by RISKforREWARD:

Any plays on the 2 big underdogs today?

 I took Houston F5 @ +142 (significant dog).

I am tempted to bite on the Mets +1.5 @ +100. Kazmir hasn't looked sharp as of late and the Mets have already tagged him once. Gee is not to be underestimated… and neither is that dormant Oakland offense. Mets +2.5 is -170… I would be surprised to see the A's win by 3+ runs, but that is just me. 

The Rangers could be worth a shot at @ +142. They have seen Cosart twice this year already and hit him very hard the last time they faced him. I see this as a high scoring game, personally, and that's why I took the over F5. Betting on the Rangers would be like betting on them to win the slugfest, IMO.

 
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Already played the over but more because of Texas pitching. Miami will destroy texas tonight I already hit the run line and money line.

Cosart got huge upside, just a rookie who needed a rest. Skipped a start and came back with a gem. He's going to be a good MLB starter, Mikolas will not.

Stros definitely have a shot. I think the value is on the over in the game though. I know I know 2 lefties in yankee stadium but I have to fade the pitchers. Underlying stats don't support ERAs. Public has beat down the odds to even money which is where I like to be. Let them pay the vig.




 
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GL   
 
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GL 

agree.. except like BOS and NYY

also like MIL & MIA as well

 
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BOB
 
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like that miami over! GL tonight




 
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BOL BOB
 
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Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

Already played the over but more because of Texas pitching. Miami will destroy texas tonight I already hit the run line and money line.

Cosart got huge upside, just a rookie who needed a rest. Skipped a start and came back with a gem. He's going to be a good MLB starter, Mikolas will not.

Stros definitely have a shot. I think the value is on the over in the game though. I know I know 2 lefties in yankee stadium but I have to fade the pitchers. Underlying stats don't support ERAs. Public has beat down the odds to even money which is where I like to be. Let them pay the vig.





Agree on Cosart. I don't underestimate him one bit.

If there is one thing the Astros can hit, it's lefties!
 
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bob
 
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On the O's and Halos 
 
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just got back to the computer..

Adding:

San Francisco Giants (Vogelsong) ML, -110 --- 1.50% of Bankroll

Geez - looks like a pitching duel in Miami! Lots of base runners but no runs.

Does anyone like the under in Oakland tonight? 
 
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Crap, man the Astros piss me off!   I understand that Chris Carter has good power and has improved his batting average in July/August.  Still though, he's batting .230 (2nd worst in the lineup) and makes some very bad swings.  He is the main reason we lost this bet.  Three at bats, three strikeouts, left two guys on base in the key 5th inning.  Then, top of the 6th, the next batter (Fowler) triples!  Fowler has better vision on the baseball than Carter and should be batting third IMO.  Having Carter bat in the key 3 spot just killed us today.

Having said all that, Astros +140 F5 was a good bet.  I'd do it again.  Just bad luck gave us the loss here.
 
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Stros gonna win the game and hit me the over, if I can get a few late runs from Milwaukee I'll be sitting pretty

I don't necessarily like taking unders after days off. Tuesday is a great day for salami overs, I have that too. That being said, I think you have to put the fade on the A's run total and keep it up. I'm probably playing mets runline + under but the line has already dropped
 
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Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

Crap, man the Astros piss me off!   I understand that Chris Carter has good power and has improved his batting average in July/August.  Still though, he's batting .230 (2nd worst in the lineup) and makes some very bad swings.  He is the main reason we lost this bet.  Three at bats, three strikeouts, left two guys on base in the key 5th inning.  Then, top of the 6th, the next batter (Fowler) triples!  Fowler has better vision on the baseball than Carter and should be batting third IMO.  Having Carter bat in the key 3 spot just killed us today.

Having said all that, Astros +140 F5 was a good bet.  I'd do it again.  Just bad luck gave us the loss here.

yep. 

take Astros F5 and they lose 2-1 F5… then take the lead 4-2 in the 6th.

take the over on 4 F5 in the Rangers/Marlins game. 1-1 F5… then 3-1 after the 6th!

missed by 1 inning on both. 

It's OK. Hopefully, make it up with the other games. But man that stinks! Good bets (Astros and the Over in Miami), IMO.
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

Stros gonna win the game and hit me the over, if I can get a few late runs from Milwaukee I'll be sitting pretty

I don't necessarily like taking unders after days off. Tuesday is a great day for salami overs, I have that too. That being said, I think you have to put the fade on the A's run total and keep it up. I'm probably playing mets runline + under but the line has already dropped
your over on the Houston/Boston game is going to hit. great call on that one bud! 


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