Picks of the Day Record YTD: 40-22-7 (65%) *** +20.42% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 11-6-3 (65%) RL: 2-4 (33%) O/U: 17-6-4 (74%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/4/2014 Record: 9-2-1 (82%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 10.56 Units (avg. line of +106) Profit: +6.98 Units / +$163.54 Return on Risk: +69.85% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101925965&page=1
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$25 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $76,035 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 40-22-7 (65%) *** +20.42% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 11-6-3 (65%) RL: 2-4 (33%) O/U: 17-6-4 (74%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/4/2014 Record: 9-2-1 (82%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 10.56 Units (avg. line of +106) Profit: +6.98 Units / +$163.54 Return on Risk: +69.85% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101925965&page=1
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$25 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $76,035 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Great day yesterday (9-2-1). Only two losses were Tigers F5 and FG (both by 1 run).
Tuesday's Card *** 8/5/2014 ***
Sides Detroit Tigers F5 (-130) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Not
too much to say on this one. Give me David Price and the Tigers
offense, that was nonexistent last night, vs. Kuroda any day. I know we
lost the POD with Scherzer against McCarthy yesterday, but it happens.
Today is a new day and I like this play even more than yesterday's play.
San Diego Padres (+109) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll This is my first time putting money on the Padres on the road, so I am going to treat lightly with a 1% of bankroll play.
This
is a team that has won 5 of their last 6 games and 17 of their last 30.
Hahn has been exceptional in his starts. The Padres are 7-2 in his 9
starts, including 4-0 in Hahn's road starts. Hughes has struggled as of
late, giving up 5+ runs in 5 of his last 8 starts. Granted, the Padres'
offense isn't overpowering and he shut them out for 7 innings in San
Diego back in May.
I give the advantage in the pitching
department - both starting and bullpen - to the Padres in this game. I
feel if the Padres lose, it will most likely be subsequent to a pitching
duel, which compelled me to take the under of the 1st 5 innings.
Cincinnati Reds F5 (+105) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Cincinnati Reds ML (+110) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll I
will take my chances with Cueto and the slumping Reds' offense at plus
money. Tomlin hasnt exactly been stellar as of late, giving up 4+ runs
in each of his last 4 starts (Indians were 0-4). I am hopeful that Cueto
can keep the Indians to 3 or fewer runs and the Reds squeak out a win.
The over on 3.5 runs for the Reds is at +100, so I definitely see better
value in the Reds ML. I am splitting up the risk over F5 and FG in this
one, with a lean on the F5 as a POD.
Los Angeles Angels ML (+230) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles +2.5 RL (-175) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll There
are few times when I will even consider betting against Clayton
Kershaw. The Dodgers are 6-2 (.750) in Kershaw's 8 home starts and 14-3
(.823) in his 17 starts overall. On the surface, one could argue that
Kershaw and the Dodgers at -220 (68.8% implied probability) at home is a
fair price. He has been nearly unhittable over the last 2 months,
giving up only 9 earned runs over 86 innings of work (0.94 ERA)!
However, tonight is one of those nights that the underdog presents value against Kershaw. Here are some reasons why:
(i)
Angels are #3 in MLB in OPS versus lefties. Yes, Kershaw is not your
typical lefty and arguably the best lefty in MLB. But, this season the
Angels have beaten Chris Sale, David Price, Jose Quintana, Jason Vargas,
Dallas Keuchel twice, and Roenis Elias twice. (ii) The Dodgers have
really struggled vs. left-handed pitching this year and have the 6th
worst OPS in MLB vs. lefties. Santiago has good stuff and he shouldnt be
underestimated (ask the Tigers, Orioles, and A's). Look at the Dodgers
did against Alex Wood (Atlanta). (iii) Pujols (.444 BA in 18 at
bats), Kendrick (.417 BA in 12 at bats), and Aybar (.273 BA in 11 at
bats) have all shown they can hit (iv) +2.5 RL is 5-3 in Kershaws 8
home starts and 10-7 in his 17 starts overall. The Dodgers will have to
score at least 3 runs to beat the +2.5 RL. I feel the Angels will score
at least 2 runs tonight, so my thought was that it will take at least 5
runs from the Dodgers - they have done 2 times in their last 14 home
games.
At the end of the day, Kershaw is not unbeatable. There
are several things about this match-up that indicate the Angels are
worth taking a flyer at such a big dog price. If the Angels cover the
+2.5 RL and lose, then we lose .32% of bankroll and if they win we bank
2.15% of bankroll on 1.50% of risk (WA line of +144).
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-122) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll No
McCutchen? That's OK, the beat goes on. The Pirates are great at home -
going 34-21 at home vs. 25-31 on the road - and the pitching match-up
definitely favors the Pirates. Morton has pitched significantly better
at home (2.18 ERA in 9 starts) and has already held the Marlins to 2
runs over 7 innings in Miami in mid-June. The Pirates still have other
bats who can produce runs and Hand isn't exactly an overpowering
pitcher. Plus, the Marlins have scored only 14 runs over their last 6
games.
Totals
San Diego/Minnesota Under 4 F5 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Cincinnati/Cleveland Under 7 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Atlanta/Seattle Under 6 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Los Angeles (AL)/Los Angeles (NL) Over 3 F5 (-105) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
0
Great day yesterday (9-2-1). Only two losses were Tigers F5 and FG (both by 1 run).
Tuesday's Card *** 8/5/2014 ***
Sides Detroit Tigers F5 (-130) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Not
too much to say on this one. Give me David Price and the Tigers
offense, that was nonexistent last night, vs. Kuroda any day. I know we
lost the POD with Scherzer against McCarthy yesterday, but it happens.
Today is a new day and I like this play even more than yesterday's play.
San Diego Padres (+109) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll This is my first time putting money on the Padres on the road, so I am going to treat lightly with a 1% of bankroll play.
This
is a team that has won 5 of their last 6 games and 17 of their last 30.
Hahn has been exceptional in his starts. The Padres are 7-2 in his 9
starts, including 4-0 in Hahn's road starts. Hughes has struggled as of
late, giving up 5+ runs in 5 of his last 8 starts. Granted, the Padres'
offense isn't overpowering and he shut them out for 7 innings in San
Diego back in May.
I give the advantage in the pitching
department - both starting and bullpen - to the Padres in this game. I
feel if the Padres lose, it will most likely be subsequent to a pitching
duel, which compelled me to take the under of the 1st 5 innings.
Cincinnati Reds F5 (+105) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Cincinnati Reds ML (+110) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll I
will take my chances with Cueto and the slumping Reds' offense at plus
money. Tomlin hasnt exactly been stellar as of late, giving up 4+ runs
in each of his last 4 starts (Indians were 0-4). I am hopeful that Cueto
can keep the Indians to 3 or fewer runs and the Reds squeak out a win.
The over on 3.5 runs for the Reds is at +100, so I definitely see better
value in the Reds ML. I am splitting up the risk over F5 and FG in this
one, with a lean on the F5 as a POD.
Los Angeles Angels ML (+230) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles +2.5 RL (-175) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll There
are few times when I will even consider betting against Clayton
Kershaw. The Dodgers are 6-2 (.750) in Kershaw's 8 home starts and 14-3
(.823) in his 17 starts overall. On the surface, one could argue that
Kershaw and the Dodgers at -220 (68.8% implied probability) at home is a
fair price. He has been nearly unhittable over the last 2 months,
giving up only 9 earned runs over 86 innings of work (0.94 ERA)!
However, tonight is one of those nights that the underdog presents value against Kershaw. Here are some reasons why:
(i)
Angels are #3 in MLB in OPS versus lefties. Yes, Kershaw is not your
typical lefty and arguably the best lefty in MLB. But, this season the
Angels have beaten Chris Sale, David Price, Jose Quintana, Jason Vargas,
Dallas Keuchel twice, and Roenis Elias twice. (ii) The Dodgers have
really struggled vs. left-handed pitching this year and have the 6th
worst OPS in MLB vs. lefties. Santiago has good stuff and he shouldnt be
underestimated (ask the Tigers, Orioles, and A's). Look at the Dodgers
did against Alex Wood (Atlanta). (iii) Pujols (.444 BA in 18 at
bats), Kendrick (.417 BA in 12 at bats), and Aybar (.273 BA in 11 at
bats) have all shown they can hit (iv) +2.5 RL is 5-3 in Kershaws 8
home starts and 10-7 in his 17 starts overall. The Dodgers will have to
score at least 3 runs to beat the +2.5 RL. I feel the Angels will score
at least 2 runs tonight, so my thought was that it will take at least 5
runs from the Dodgers - they have done 2 times in their last 14 home
games.
At the end of the day, Kershaw is not unbeatable. There
are several things about this match-up that indicate the Angels are
worth taking a flyer at such a big dog price. If the Angels cover the
+2.5 RL and lose, then we lose .32% of bankroll and if they win we bank
2.15% of bankroll on 1.50% of risk (WA line of +144).
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-122) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll No
McCutchen? That's OK, the beat goes on. The Pirates are great at home -
going 34-21 at home vs. 25-31 on the road - and the pitching match-up
definitely favors the Pirates. Morton has pitched significantly better
at home (2.18 ERA in 9 starts) and has already held the Marlins to 2
runs over 7 innings in Miami in mid-June. The Pirates still have other
bats who can produce runs and Hand isn't exactly an overpowering
pitcher. Plus, the Marlins have scored only 14 runs over their last 6
games.
Totals
San Diego/Minnesota Under 4 F5 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Cincinnati/Cleveland Under 7 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Atlanta/Seattle Under 6 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Los Angeles (AL)/Los Angeles (NL) Over 3 F5 (-105) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Man, I was so pissed at my Detroit bets yesterday, that I could not even bear to look at anything baseball related until now. It's a shame, as I would likely have jumped all over Detroit again today. Sadly, game has already started. I don't know why I have the rotten luck I do in any game involving the Yankees. Bet on them or against them, I seem to lose every time. So perhaps it is a good thing I did not curse you guys again today.
I think I'm going to go Angels tonight. Dodgers are just a mess. I watched that game last night and oh boy, the players just seemed so out of it. Two bad throws by Ramirez, Puig is sitting there in center field staring up at the stars holding the ball while the slowest player in baseball (Pujols) goes to second base. What a disaster!
Also love Hahn as a pitcher. Not so much Padres on the road though.
Good luck guys!
0
Man, I was so pissed at my Detroit bets yesterday, that I could not even bear to look at anything baseball related until now. It's a shame, as I would likely have jumped all over Detroit again today. Sadly, game has already started. I don't know why I have the rotten luck I do in any game involving the Yankees. Bet on them or against them, I seem to lose every time. So perhaps it is a good thing I did not curse you guys again today.
I think I'm going to go Angels tonight. Dodgers are just a mess. I watched that game last night and oh boy, the players just seemed so out of it. Two bad throws by Ramirez, Puig is sitting there in center field staring up at the stars holding the ball while the slowest player in baseball (Pujols) goes to second base. What a disaster!
Also love Hahn as a pitcher. Not so much Padres on the road though.
there's momentum at work in LA too...Puig pissed off the Angels last night, and the Halos want to show they're the best team...plus the road team plays better in this series...and I think Kershaw is worse vs. good hitting teams like the Cards than that angle should imply...he's pedestrian in the post season...
Don't diminish local input...I'm with you...we would hit more than 50% of these plays and that's a winning formula
0
there's momentum at work in LA too...Puig pissed off the Angels last night, and the Halos want to show they're the best team...plus the road team plays better in this series...and I think Kershaw is worse vs. good hitting teams like the Cards than that angle should imply...he's pedestrian in the post season...
Don't diminish local input...I'm with you...we would hit more than 50% of these plays and that's a winning formula
no offense but if you think momentum or motivation have anything to do with what you should bet on you are probably never going to win in sports betting
just fade the pirates until McC comes back, they suck now, guarantee they will have a -ROI this month
0
no offense but if you think momentum or motivation have anything to do with what you should bet on you are probably never going to win in sports betting
just fade the pirates until McC comes back, they suck now, guarantee they will have a -ROI this month
taking the Pirates tonight probably wasn't the brightest idea, but behind Morton I thought anything inside of -140 looked good going up against Hand. Pirates bullpen blew the game. Oh well. I also expected Martin to be in the lineup. Will probably layoff the Pirates unless they are going up against a righty (re: Davis/Martin/Alvarez).
0
taking the Pirates tonight probably wasn't the brightest idea, but behind Morton I thought anything inside of -140 looked good going up against Hand. Pirates bullpen blew the game. Oh well. I also expected Martin to be in the lineup. Will probably layoff the Pirates unless they are going up against a righty (re: Davis/Martin/Alvarez).
yeah I had miami and it was just a statistical play because the line should have been a coin flip
McCs war is about 9, if you subtract 9 wins they two teams have the same record, I could not separate the starting pitcher stats at all it looked like a wash so the + was the way to go
AL is kicking the behind of the NL in the first games of the series, it behooves you to think about going the other way tomorrow, this has been a solid trend since at least last year, don't question why, just get paid
0
yeah I had miami and it was just a statistical play because the line should have been a coin flip
McCs war is about 9, if you subtract 9 wins they two teams have the same record, I could not separate the starting pitcher stats at all it looked like a wash so the + was the way to go
AL is kicking the behind of the NL in the first games of the series, it behooves you to think about going the other way tomorrow, this has been a solid trend since at least last year, don't question why, just get paid
looks like we're in good shape in LA, I took the runline for pretty big and snapped up the money line thanks to you, probably wouldn't have played it unless you did
0
looks like we're in good shape in LA, I took the runline for pretty big and snapped up the money line thanks to you, probably wouldn't have played it unless you did
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