Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Also Bodio, my advice i guess was meant for people that were betting the runline as opposed to people like you that were taking the moneyline. Safer going from the runline to the -1
I'm confused. How is it safer? If it's a 1-run game, you win the bet +1 Unit. If you bet -1, you push...+/- 0. I think the mentality that people need to have is that you're looking to maximize profits, not to come out EVEN (which is a push strategy).
Let's look at this example here. I think Cincy has 70% chance of winning this game (that's why I'm betting -165, which is around 62% chance of winning). So let's compare the 3 different outcomes (ML, RL -1.5, and RL -1 Push-line)
ML: So out of 10 games, I would win 7 and lose 3.
Net Unit gain:+7 units - 4.95 (3*1.65 odds) = +2.05 Units
RL-1.5: Since 30% of all the wins end up being by 1 run, we have to assume that out of those 7 ML wins, at least 2 will be by 1-run (7 * 30% = 2.1). So, people that bet the RL (+125 odds) will win 5 games and lose 5.
Net Unit gain: +6.25 units (5 *1.25) - 5 units = +1.25 Units
RL -1 (-122 odds): I believe this is what you're suggesting. So if Cincy wins by 1, it's a push. Keep in mind that you're still laying juice here, but it's not as large as the ML (about 40 cents less). So now we have a scenario where you win 5, lose 3, and push on 2.
Net Unit gain: +5 units - 3.66 (3*1.22) = +1.34 Units
To me it's pretty clear that ML is the right long-term wager, if my assumption that this bet wins 70% of the time is correct. Either way, betting RL -1, is something that I don't think is in our favor long-term. It's something the books designed, to make us feel 'warm and fuzzy' inside about reducing the vig, but is this really the best option?? Gambling is a risk, and we are all programmed to take on a certain amount of risk (at least I assume we are, since we all are gambling). If we can't stomach certain risk, when the wager warrants it of course, then we should PASS altogether, since we're not convinced that this is a 'good' wager in the first place. (Also sometimes we're not convinced a wager is a good wager, but there could be too much 'value' to pass up...but this is a different discussion for a different time) Either way to try and 'reduce' some risk (only about 40/45 cents worth) and accept 30% of OUR wins as PUSHES is something that I don't particularly find acceptable for ME, hence the reason I primarily bet ML's. I think long-term, finding the right ML wagers is the right way to go, instead of making myself feel 'warm and fuzzy' with reduced juice and 30% less winners...
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