Braves -1.5 5U Winning details inside

Coming into this game, we are going to look at a couple of things. First thing we are going to look at is the fact that the Braves are pitching Max Fried on the mound tonight. Max Fried on the mound has been lights out as of late for the Braves with his 12-4 record in his 24 starts this season. At home he has a solid 6-3 record with a 2.49 ERA. The Braves are 17-7 when Fried pitches this season and 11-3 in starts since June 1st. In his 1 start against the Rockies this season, Fried pitched 8 full innings allowing 0 ER and only 2 hits in that game.

Now let’s look at the Rockies pitcher, Jose Urena. In his 10 starts this season with the Colorado Rockies, he has a 5.98 ERA and a 2-5 record. In starts this season, he also has a .286 BA against and a .270 BA on the road which is not much better. Urena’s 5.52 ERA in night games paired with his 4.21 ERA in road games is not a recipe for success when going into Truist park. Truist park, according to baseball savant is ranked the 12th friendliest park in terms of hitting against with a park factor of 101 which takes stats such as wOBA, Runs, Hits, Walks, and Strikeouts in a particular ballpark and gives it a ranking with 100 being “average”. A ranking wOBACon of 103 means that there is roughly 3% more “hits into the playing field” than the average stadium with the highest being. 108 which is Coors. This formula considers all ABs since 2020 that do not result in a sacrifice bunt or an intentional walk. This metric being “above average” is a key metric in helping you determine a quality of contact score.

Now that we have dived into all the stats surrounding the pitching staffs, let’s look at hitting. The Rockies have been abysmal on the road. A .234 BA on the road ranks near the bottom with only the A’s having a .232 road BA. Against left-handed pitchers this season, the Rockies are striking out an astounding 22% of ABs this season. The Rockies best hitter against Fried is a solid .333 against Fried in 6 career Abs while no one outside of him has a BA better than .143 against Fried. Finally, the Rockies have scored a total of 12 runs over the course of the last 45 innings pitched. The Braves on the other hand are a completely different story as they have scored 39 runs over the last 45 innings pitched with a .256 BA at home is a tad bit concerning, their .270 BA in night games and .270 BA post all star break is more of what we have seen recently.

Being 3 games back against the Mets with roughly 30 games left to play, it is critical to win games when you are supposed to win games. The Rockies stole one game against the Mets and brings you 1 game closer to winning the NL East. With 11 of those 30 games being against the Rockies, A’s and National’s, you have fantastic opportunity to make up some ground against the Mets before that series in the last week of September against them which will likely determine the winner of the NL East. Give me the Braves to win tonight in destroying fashion as they score 6+ in the first 5 innings and allow their bullpen to coast into the finish as Max Fried pitches 7 full before being relieved.

Hope you follow and cash together