My thoughts on Cubs and why I passed on run line today.
Please do not confuse Lester with Jake...night and day. Not even close. So when I see Jake -1.5 -45 and Lester -1.5 -115....that's ridiculous wager IMO. Braves won last night in Boston, feeling good on their flight to Chicago. Bryant out, Wind HOWLING in....
I hope Cubs win 9-0 as I did not see 1 Braves play, but this is too rich for Lester. I KNOW Jake isn't giving up much, Lester could give up 3 in a second.
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Bubba and All-
My thoughts on Cubs and why I passed on run line today.
Please do not confuse Lester with Jake...night and day. Not even close. So when I see Jake -1.5 -45 and Lester -1.5 -115....that's ridiculous wager IMO. Braves won last night in Boston, feeling good on their flight to Chicago. Bryant out, Wind HOWLING in....
I hope Cubs win 9-0 as I did not see 1 Braves play, but this is too rich for Lester. I KNOW Jake isn't giving up much, Lester could give up 3 in a second.
Gonna be a small card for the Nation tonight coming off a great night...Top Play for me...
Note: I don't like laying -151 and I may play the Run Line..
METS:
Matz in his L2 starts 13 IP, 2 ER, 17 K and 2 BB That is the guy we thought he was going to be. Mets are 11-2 L 13 and scoring 5.7 runs per game during that stretch.
Peavy is 0-7 against good teams Last 7 on the road and I don't see much change here.
I will double check lineups and weather might be an issue, but for me. I will play Mets on top of everything I do.
For this board, i would use Mets as a $$$$ play , but I don't think it fits the criteria and I have no idea how many I have used this week etc. So for the purposes of betting, HAMMER the Mets. I love this spot for them...Matz will be a HUGE Play ON guy for me going forward.
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Gonna be a small card for the Nation tonight coming off a great night...Top Play for me...
Note: I don't like laying -151 and I may play the Run Line..
METS:
Matz in his L2 starts 13 IP, 2 ER, 17 K and 2 BB That is the guy we thought he was going to be. Mets are 11-2 L 13 and scoring 5.7 runs per game during that stretch.
Peavy is 0-7 against good teams Last 7 on the road and I don't see much change here.
I will double check lineups and weather might be an issue, but for me. I will play Mets on top of everything I do.
For this board, i would use Mets as a $$$$ play , but I don't think it fits the criteria and I have no idea how many I have used this week etc. So for the purposes of betting, HAMMER the Mets. I love this spot for them...Matz will be a HUGE Play ON guy for me going forward.
So Zach Davies statistically is the worse pitcher on the board right? Look deeper Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana both wreck Adam Conley. Typical setup classic letdown Marlins riding high 4 game sweep of Dodgers. Stranton wrecking pitching lately. Smell an upset here and Marlins play down to competition.
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Freaky Friday
Milwaukee Brewers -105
So Zach Davies statistically is the worse pitcher on the board right? Look deeper Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana both wreck Adam Conley. Typical setup classic letdown Marlins riding high 4 game sweep of Dodgers. Stranton wrecking pitching lately. Smell an upset here and Marlins play down to competition.
Angels (8:05PM ET FSSW, FSW, MLB.TV) – Due for a $$$$ winner here and we head to the Lone Star State where the Texas Rangers welcome the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the opener of a three game set between two middle of the pack squads in the AL West at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Both of these teams have been hovering around .500 for this season and while we have played against both at times, the Rangers are one of the more overrated teams in the league this year and this is an ideal spot to play against them tonight. The Angels offense is starting to heat up and it’s no surprise it comes as Mike Trout is finally breaking out of a slump that had he and the Angels offense stifled for the majority of the first month of the season. Trout is hitting a torrid .429 in his last eight games with four home runs and gets a dream matchup here as the Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound, a guy Mike Trout has owned over a large sample size in his career, hitting .400 with four home runs in 30 at bats against Lewis. Trout isn’t alone as this entire Angels lineup has had a field day against the Rangers veteran right hander as Kole Calhoun also hits right around .400 and have obliterated Lewis to the tune of a 1-7 record and a 9.78 ERA for Lewis against the Angels in nine starts. It gets worse for Lewis at Globe Life Park where he is 0-5 with an 11.01 ERA in his last seven starts against the Angels who have simply had the Rangers number all around, winning 16 of 20 in this ball park since 2014. Lewis is off to a decent start this season with a 3.38 ERA but with the Angels hitting him hard year in and year out this is just a bad matchup for Lewis and it will take some big time run support to put him in position to avoid another loss to the Angels tonight. Runs will be at a premium tonight for the Rangers as the Angels send red hot lefty Hector Santiago to the hill who is unblemished at 2-0 this season with a 2.70 ERA and has always had success against this Rangers team. Santiago’s numbers get better in this ballpark as well has he is 5-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts at Globe Life Park and he will be backed by an offense that has finally started to hit as the Angels are averaging 5.4 runs per game in their past five, four of which are Angels wins. As we learned with the Cardinals last night, all the numbers stacking up in your favor doesn’t always lead to a win but it will more times than not and that’s what we have again here with the Angels here tonight. Mike Trout playing well is essential to the Angels success and he is swinging the bat as good as he has all season right now. Trout has demolished Lewis throughout his career and the other Angels have followed suit with numbers so gaudy that we just don’t see a scenario where Lewis shuts down an entire lineup of guys that have hammered him year in and year out. Hector Santiago is becoming the stopper on this staff as he has been by far the Angels most consistent and best starter this season and considering he has had a ton of success against the Rangers and pitching in this ballpark over the year it’s an ideal spot to back him at a fair price tonight. Both teams come in playing good ball but it’s the Angels that are really hitting their stride right now and with all the statistical advantages lining up in the Angels favor, back the Halos to stay hot, get to Colby Lewis yet again and take the opener in Arlington tonight.
$$$$ Angels -120
Been cold with the $$$$ plays but I really love this play here and we are due to hit a couple of these. Everything stacks up in the Angels favor here and they are playing good ball, they win tonight. topflightsportsinfo dot com
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Angels (8:05PM ET FSSW, FSW, MLB.TV) – Due for a $$$$ winner here and we head to the Lone Star State where the Texas Rangers welcome the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the opener of a three game set between two middle of the pack squads in the AL West at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Both of these teams have been hovering around .500 for this season and while we have played against both at times, the Rangers are one of the more overrated teams in the league this year and this is an ideal spot to play against them tonight. The Angels offense is starting to heat up and it’s no surprise it comes as Mike Trout is finally breaking out of a slump that had he and the Angels offense stifled for the majority of the first month of the season. Trout is hitting a torrid .429 in his last eight games with four home runs and gets a dream matchup here as the Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound, a guy Mike Trout has owned over a large sample size in his career, hitting .400 with four home runs in 30 at bats against Lewis. Trout isn’t alone as this entire Angels lineup has had a field day against the Rangers veteran right hander as Kole Calhoun also hits right around .400 and have obliterated Lewis to the tune of a 1-7 record and a 9.78 ERA for Lewis against the Angels in nine starts. It gets worse for Lewis at Globe Life Park where he is 0-5 with an 11.01 ERA in his last seven starts against the Angels who have simply had the Rangers number all around, winning 16 of 20 in this ball park since 2014. Lewis is off to a decent start this season with a 3.38 ERA but with the Angels hitting him hard year in and year out this is just a bad matchup for Lewis and it will take some big time run support to put him in position to avoid another loss to the Angels tonight. Runs will be at a premium tonight for the Rangers as the Angels send red hot lefty Hector Santiago to the hill who is unblemished at 2-0 this season with a 2.70 ERA and has always had success against this Rangers team. Santiago’s numbers get better in this ballpark as well has he is 5-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts at Globe Life Park and he will be backed by an offense that has finally started to hit as the Angels are averaging 5.4 runs per game in their past five, four of which are Angels wins. As we learned with the Cardinals last night, all the numbers stacking up in your favor doesn’t always lead to a win but it will more times than not and that’s what we have again here with the Angels here tonight. Mike Trout playing well is essential to the Angels success and he is swinging the bat as good as he has all season right now. Trout has demolished Lewis throughout his career and the other Angels have followed suit with numbers so gaudy that we just don’t see a scenario where Lewis shuts down an entire lineup of guys that have hammered him year in and year out. Hector Santiago is becoming the stopper on this staff as he has been by far the Angels most consistent and best starter this season and considering he has had a ton of success against the Rangers and pitching in this ballpark over the year it’s an ideal spot to back him at a fair price tonight. Both teams come in playing good ball but it’s the Angels that are really hitting their stride right now and with all the statistical advantages lining up in the Angels favor, back the Halos to stay hot, get to Colby Lewis yet again and take the opener in Arlington tonight.
$$$$ Angels -120
Been cold with the $$$$ plays but I really love this play here and we are due to hit a couple of these. Everything stacks up in the Angels favor here and they are playing good ball, they win tonight. topflightsportsinfo dot com
Definite desire to play the Mets but Matz pitching at home has a ERA of 5.87 based on 15.1 innings. Hoping to find an over ref and hit the over
@Tuck I wouldn't worry about Matz home ERA it's all from the one start where he got blown up by the Marlins. Matz is the real deal....he is going to be a star and if you like the Mets here don't let that be the factor that talks you off....I think he pitches well tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:
Definite desire to play the Mets but Matz pitching at home has a ERA of 5.87 based on 15.1 innings. Hoping to find an over ref and hit the over
@Tuck I wouldn't worry about Matz home ERA it's all from the one start where he got blown up by the Marlins. Matz is the real deal....he is going to be a star and if you like the Mets here don't let that be the factor that talks you off....I think he pitches well tonight.
Nice to see the Cubbies end up on top of the Braves as I imagine most teams will this year!
Please refrain from posting negativity or your sorrows before the fat lady sings. I don't like that type of vibe and don't want it on this thread. It comes off a little frantic and immature. Thanks.
@TopFlightSports... I hope you hit your Angels play and end this cold streak. I am not sure I can trust that lineup to put up runs.
I have a major tip that I hope at the very least keeps people off the Astros and and at the very best wins me and this thread some big money tonight. Drumroll please......Standing at 6'5 , a southpaw, with a little zip (92-96MPH capable of hitting 98, also has a slider that is deceptive) making his Major League debut....Sean Manaea. Been around this thread since its inception and rarely do I post an "insider tip" but I happen to have a few contacts at my alma mater in the athletic department that say this kid is the real deal. Able to hit his spots, good mechanics and an odd angle delivery that is tough to pick up on. A lot of pitchers get "welcomed" to the big leagues but I think Manaea won't fit this mold. I know it is Friday and I am most likely bias since we graduated from the same school but I trust my source. A rather large wager for me at 2.5U. Cheers!
$$$$ Oakland A's +121 $$$$ (S Manaea Must Start)
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Nice to see the Cubbies end up on top of the Braves as I imagine most teams will this year!
Please refrain from posting negativity or your sorrows before the fat lady sings. I don't like that type of vibe and don't want it on this thread. It comes off a little frantic and immature. Thanks.
@TopFlightSports... I hope you hit your Angels play and end this cold streak. I am not sure I can trust that lineup to put up runs.
I have a major tip that I hope at the very least keeps people off the Astros and and at the very best wins me and this thread some big money tonight. Drumroll please......Standing at 6'5 , a southpaw, with a little zip (92-96MPH capable of hitting 98, also has a slider that is deceptive) making his Major League debut....Sean Manaea. Been around this thread since its inception and rarely do I post an "insider tip" but I happen to have a few contacts at my alma mater in the athletic department that say this kid is the real deal. Able to hit his spots, good mechanics and an odd angle delivery that is tough to pick up on. A lot of pitchers get "welcomed" to the big leagues but I think Manaea won't fit this mold. I know it is Friday and I am most likely bias since we graduated from the same school but I trust my source. A rather large wager for me at 2.5U. Cheers!
Please refrain from posting negativity or your sorrows before the fat lady sings. I don't like that type of vibe and don't want it on this thread. It comes off a little frantic and immature. Thanks.
Ugh, that bad? Sorry, Bubba, and everyone else.
I won't post that kind of shiat again.
I'm just one lucky mofo to have my -2.5 Cubbies play to cover.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:
Please refrain from posting negativity or your sorrows before the fat lady sings. I don't like that type of vibe and don't want it on this thread. It comes off a little frantic and immature. Thanks.
Ugh, that bad? Sorry, Bubba, and everyone else.
I won't post that kind of shiat again.
I'm just one lucky mofo to have my -2.5 Cubbies play to cover.
@Mozart, It wasn't that bad, let's just save those rants for really bad beats like that TCU Oregon Bowl game this year.
The thread hasn't been that hot in general for about 2 weeks now but no one forces anyone to tail. If we stay positive and share great insight we will persevere to "greener" times!
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@Mozart, It wasn't that bad, let's just save those rants for really bad beats like that TCU Oregon Bowl game this year.
The thread hasn't been that hot in general for about 2 weeks now but no one forces anyone to tail. If we stay positive and share great insight we will persevere to "greener" times!
What I like about this thread is no one is forcing or implying anyone to tail. It literally is just a thread where people can post their insights on the game. I dont understand the people getting mad that this thread had a down streak. I mean, almost all of the players in the list are +money. Don't expect people to win all the time.
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What I like about this thread is no one is forcing or implying anyone to tail. It literally is just a thread where people can post their insights on the game. I dont understand the people getting mad that this thread had a down streak. I mean, almost all of the players in the list are +money. Don't expect people to win all the time.
Blair looks like he pitched well though, which is nice to see since I have him stashed on my fantasy team (it's a very deep NL only league), and if he keeps this up I'll be forced to activate him.
Good luck on the bases tonight everyone. I haven't been posting many baseball wagers yet, still getting into my comfort zone. That being said
Mariners -150 tonight with King Felix on the hill at home vs. cold Royals team.
Phils +165, rolling with them at a good price and hope they stay hot. Morgan is green, but has upside, and most guys on Cleveland probably never faced him, so hoping he can get through lineup once unscathed (at least once) also don't hit lefties as well as righties.
So far this year been mostly playing hot teams, fading cold teams, with the right match ups and prices. Doing OK so far, hope it continues.
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Nice win for Cub backers again!
Blair looks like he pitched well though, which is nice to see since I have him stashed on my fantasy team (it's a very deep NL only league), and if he keeps this up I'll be forced to activate him.
Good luck on the bases tonight everyone. I haven't been posting many baseball wagers yet, still getting into my comfort zone. That being said
Mariners -150 tonight with King Felix on the hill at home vs. cold Royals team.
Phils +165, rolling with them at a good price and hope they stay hot. Morgan is green, but has upside, and most guys on Cleveland probably never faced him, so hoping he can get through lineup once unscathed (at least once) also don't hit lefties as well as righties.
So far this year been mostly playing hot teams, fading cold teams, with the right match ups and prices. Doing OK so far, hope it continues.
Random thoughts from brutal joe while sipping his Perfect Manhattan in the greatest city in the world NYC !! Lol I think the NBA is easy pickings tonight. 1 IND-TOR 98 1Hu this is a $$$$ play for me. If Bubba says not enough info then I understand but I have watched these playoffs. I have read ESPN. I have watched more basketball than Lou Connesca ... Is he still alive? No way this goes over. It will be a dog fight Bubba wants gut feels and not stats?! This is a real gut feel. Paul George says we need to be tougher. I really think IND is desperate and will challenge everything. Remember IND IS one year removed from the strangling defensive unit of last year they have many of the same pieces. This is their game 7. I just don't see them not challenging every 3 that Rap throws at them. I just dont see them NOT fighting for every loose ball. Vogel kind of cost them in game 5. I don't see a high or even moderate high game. MAX PLAY. 2 I am also taking them 195.5u FG. No explanation needed. But liking 1H more because of OT and a few other reasons 3 IND -2 i have read all the posts by very smart cappers. I have nothing more to add here. TOR is soft. IND Is Semi soft. IND is at home. IND is more motivated. Don't over think here. 4 MIA. 191o. I don't see MIA shooting 30% tonite. I really don't. This is their game 7 because when it goes to MIA they should win the series. Their game is scoring. They know that. I do not see a defensive tilt. I aM worried about coach for CHAR he knows what he is doing and has his troops ready to play. I like the over 5 TOR TT 3.5o. It is time for the Blue Jays to get out of their funk. They see a tasty lefty tonight in Smyly. They got it start hitting southpaws. And even if the don't. I still got 9 innings for ABs and only 4 to win. I know that TB is where overs go to die. But I like this pick. 6 CIN-PIT 7.5o. Look I know PIT inflated their runs while at Coors and at Zona and I know that PNC is not a hitter park but really. The best hitting team in baseball (Pirates) facing Strailly. The Reds facing Nicosia. I got 7.5? Sign me up for the over. ( I got this this morning. I think it is at 8 now. Still a good play) Brutaljoe
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Random thoughts from brutal joe while sipping his Perfect Manhattan in the greatest city in the world NYC !! Lol I think the NBA is easy pickings tonight. 1 IND-TOR 98 1Hu this is a $$$$ play for me. If Bubba says not enough info then I understand but I have watched these playoffs. I have read ESPN. I have watched more basketball than Lou Connesca ... Is he still alive? No way this goes over. It will be a dog fight Bubba wants gut feels and not stats?! This is a real gut feel. Paul George says we need to be tougher. I really think IND is desperate and will challenge everything. Remember IND IS one year removed from the strangling defensive unit of last year they have many of the same pieces. This is their game 7. I just don't see them not challenging every 3 that Rap throws at them. I just dont see them NOT fighting for every loose ball. Vogel kind of cost them in game 5. I don't see a high or even moderate high game. MAX PLAY. 2 I am also taking them 195.5u FG. No explanation needed. But liking 1H more because of OT and a few other reasons 3 IND -2 i have read all the posts by very smart cappers. I have nothing more to add here. TOR is soft. IND Is Semi soft. IND is at home. IND is more motivated. Don't over think here. 4 MIA. 191o. I don't see MIA shooting 30% tonite. I really don't. This is their game 7 because when it goes to MIA they should win the series. Their game is scoring. They know that. I do not see a defensive tilt. I aM worried about coach for CHAR he knows what he is doing and has his troops ready to play. I like the over 5 TOR TT 3.5o. It is time for the Blue Jays to get out of their funk. They see a tasty lefty tonight in Smyly. They got it start hitting southpaws. And even if the don't. I still got 9 innings for ABs and only 4 to win. I know that TB is where overs go to die. But I like this pick. 6 CIN-PIT 7.5o. Look I know PIT inflated their runs while at Coors and at Zona and I know that PNC is not a hitter park but really. The best hitting team in baseball (Pirates) facing Strailly. The Reds facing Nicosia. I got 7.5? Sign me up for the over. ( I got this this morning. I think it is at 8 now. Still a good play) Brutaljoe
In the Mets game Gabe Morales is the ump. Neither pitcher has seen him and on a short sample he has been no direction this season but the previous 2 years very Over ref
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In the Mets game Gabe Morales is the ump. Neither pitcher has seen him and on a short sample he has been no direction this season but the previous 2 years very Over ref
$$$$ Toronto/Tampa full game under 7.5 (-120) $$$$
Warning, I am 0-2 on the week for $$ plays. Gambling gods seem determined to humble me this week, as I thought I had two good plays, but both came up just short. Bummer, but it is what it is.
Toronto mauled LHP last season, but they are not doing as well this year. May be a temporary thing, or maybe not. Smyly as emerged as a super solid LHP for Tampa, with a high strikeout ratio and only been giving up 1.4 runs per game in his last few starts.
Smyly did get roughed up a bit against Toronto in early April, so there is that. The one guy Smyly really needs to be careful with is Josh Donaldson. Out of the Toronto lineup, he is the one guy still getting it done versus lefties. Encarnacion, Batista, Pillar are all good hitters last season vs LHP but not meeting that high standard this season. The bottom half of Toronto lineup has done nothing versus LHP so far this season.
Now focusing on Toronto pitcher, Aaron Sanchez is not well known but has had a solid start to his young career thus far. The only start this season that was not considered a 'quality start' was his last outing at home against the As.
Against Tampa Bay Sanchez has been near brilliant thus far. He has only faced them twice as a starting pitcher but sports a 1.69ERA and 0.70WHIP. Faced Tampa earlier in the year and went 7 strong innings only giving up 1 run.
Only Tampa Bay batters that seem to be doing decent against RHP this year are Forsythe and Dickerson. Overall though, Tampa Bay is having an awful season in producing runs. Longoria is always somebody to keep an eye on, but thus far he has been cold.
So bottom line, 7.5 runs seems a bit challenging for these teams to go over. If this bet loses, seems likely it will be Toronto blasting a few home runs off Smyly. His last match up I think Donaldson went deep twice. As long as Smyly pitches around Donaldson, I like his chances on improving from that last meeting. As for Sanchez, unless his pitching gets wild, Tampa is normally good for no more than 2 runs or so.
Tampa has got a good bullpen, Toronto has good an above average bullpen as well, but Drew Storen is a potential gas can.
Those who are brave can parlay Toronto with the under 7.5 to up the payout. I am thinking about it.
$$$$ Toronto/Tampa full game under 7.5 $$$$
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$$$$ Toronto/Tampa full game under 7.5 (-120) $$$$
Warning, I am 0-2 on the week for $$ plays. Gambling gods seem determined to humble me this week, as I thought I had two good plays, but both came up just short. Bummer, but it is what it is.
Toronto mauled LHP last season, but they are not doing as well this year. May be a temporary thing, or maybe not. Smyly as emerged as a super solid LHP for Tampa, with a high strikeout ratio and only been giving up 1.4 runs per game in his last few starts.
Smyly did get roughed up a bit against Toronto in early April, so there is that. The one guy Smyly really needs to be careful with is Josh Donaldson. Out of the Toronto lineup, he is the one guy still getting it done versus lefties. Encarnacion, Batista, Pillar are all good hitters last season vs LHP but not meeting that high standard this season. The bottom half of Toronto lineup has done nothing versus LHP so far this season.
Now focusing on Toronto pitcher, Aaron Sanchez is not well known but has had a solid start to his young career thus far. The only start this season that was not considered a 'quality start' was his last outing at home against the As.
Against Tampa Bay Sanchez has been near brilliant thus far. He has only faced them twice as a starting pitcher but sports a 1.69ERA and 0.70WHIP. Faced Tampa earlier in the year and went 7 strong innings only giving up 1 run.
Only Tampa Bay batters that seem to be doing decent against RHP this year are Forsythe and Dickerson. Overall though, Tampa Bay is having an awful season in producing runs. Longoria is always somebody to keep an eye on, but thus far he has been cold.
So bottom line, 7.5 runs seems a bit challenging for these teams to go over. If this bet loses, seems likely it will be Toronto blasting a few home runs off Smyly. His last match up I think Donaldson went deep twice. As long as Smyly pitches around Donaldson, I like his chances on improving from that last meeting. As for Sanchez, unless his pitching gets wild, Tampa is normally good for no more than 2 runs or so.
Tampa has got a good bullpen, Toronto has good an above average bullpen as well, but Drew Storen is a potential gas can.
Those who are brave can parlay Toronto with the under 7.5 to up the payout. I am thinking about it.
Pacers +600 for the series is tempting! Would be nice having that heading into game 7!
I thought the same thing hours ago and took Pacers for series +668 for 4 units instead of laying - 1 1/2 tonight.If Pacers win tonight I will be hedging for sure.BOL to the thread tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:
Pacers +600 for the series is tempting! Would be nice having that heading into game 7!
I thought the same thing hours ago and took Pacers for series +668 for 4 units instead of laying - 1 1/2 tonight.If Pacers win tonight I will be hedging for sure.BOL to the thread tonight
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