Bubba's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.11.16

thank you for that

plus the philly got robbed of a 1st base instant replay too.  I dunno.  Let philly score 2 more so you and I both cash.  Momentum swinging.  Not fair at all. 

So who is going to score? 

Play the under

Probably not the best of karma calling your team a winner when you're actually losing the game.... Just sayin

that one play ruined the momentum.  With 0 outs and bases loaded, I see a 2 run inning.  Ended up getting 1 and 2 outs. 

A lost is a lost cause.  I have plays later but I'm done posting for the day.  Bad karma follows me around when I post and yap about it. 

Here goes my recovery money 

4/11/16 11:08am

$100.00

$90.09

Pending

4/11/16 7:10pm  MLB Baseball  908 New York Mets -1 -111* vs Miami Marlins  (J Cosart - R must Start   S Matz - L must Start)

4/11/16 5:29am

$100.00

$90.91

Pending

4/11/16 7:35pm  NBA Basketball  707 Washington Wizards -5½ -110* vs Brooklyn Nets

$$$$ Cubs/Reds over 7 $$$$

Looks like the winds will be blowing out in the home opener @Wrigley Field. 7 of last 10 between these 2 teams have played over as well. Cubs are 5-1 in last 6 Monday night games. Bubba, give me the Cubs/Reds over 7 for my $$$$ play. Thanks and good luck everyone.

I agree with this, I don't think many people are bothering to read the well written and extensive explanation you give at the start of each daily thread.  To give a $$ play on the basis of 'pitcher A rules and team B sucks' so give me team A RL is not really helpful. 

I for one like to read something that makes me go aha, I learned a thing or two from reading that post behind the $$ play.  I already know which pitchers are 'good' and which teams seem to be 'bleh'.  I want to learn at least a one or two unique angles that is not common knowledge.

Also, much as I feared, I am seeing a whole lotta chalk on the recommended baseball $$ plays.  I know it makes sense to go all chalk (up to -150) for those who just want to have a nice overall record for Bubbaski to post.  Logic dictates that taking all -150 should lead to a better record than going with all +150.  Unless one is keeping careful track of the bets behind the record, somebody going 2-2 taking all chalk will show up the same as the guy looking for value and going 2-2 taking all ML dogs.  Yet, one player is losing money while the other is making money.  It would be nice to know who is making money in baseball.  Over the course of a  season, it is tough to make money going chalk every time. 

kosmos4 - welcome to the $$ club, and I applaud your chutzpah for having the stones to take a big dog as your pick that you felt was value priced.  Kudos to you for breaking the trend here.  On chutzpah alone, I would have tailed you for 1/2 a unit if I had seen your post in time.  Sadly, I think this game was over by the time I woke up, LOL.  Still, cheers to you for a great dog ML pick.  I hope a lot more folks start looking at them for their picks, even if they do not get rewarded for doing so record wise.

@brosuf

Not a $$ play for me, but I locked in NBA Milwaukee Bucks +3 at Orlando.

Both teams are on a back2back coming off a road game.  Bucks did play OT versus Philly yesterday, plus it is always tougher to do both back2back games on the road.

Still, from what I read Milwaukee will be playing all of their starters, including Middleton,. Monroe, and Antetokounmpo who are their 'big 3' trio.  Orlando however is going mostly all bench due to injury.  Oladipo is hurt, Vucevic is hurt, Gordon is hurt.  That is their 'big 3' so to speak, and having them all out is tough.

I do think Orlando has some decent back up guys like Dedmon and Fourneier.  But this spread indicated to me that this game would be a pick 'em on a neutral court, and Milwaukee has the better lineup today.  Both teams have no motivation though to win, thus it is only a regular 1 unit play for me.  Perhaps Orlando bench will have the fresh legs and run Milwaukee out of the building.  I hope not though obviously. 

I initially liked the Washington Wizards against Nets to cover.  While they still may cover due to Nets totally in tank mode, I warn everybody that they are resting all their solid players.  Without Wall and Beal due to injury, but sounds like Markieff Morris is not going to play and Nene may not play either or just play a little.

So it will be Washington scrubs + Gortat against Nets scrubs. 

Playing out the string...
w/ their 2nd stringers...
beat Pels for ages, &
even in their house...

But now, for the first time in several years running...
No post-season play, w/ Butler & Rose & Gasol not united as a team.

The Pels catching 5 points
but shouldn't need them
as the Bulls will to win is spent.
bad feelings with a loss would save them from false-happiness
and a win would be harder to explain both to Mgt., coahing, & fans

NO Pelicans +5 $$$$

I enjoyed reading your thoughts on today's games.  I tailed you on that Chicago/New Orleans over 205.  I am thinking of Celtics but have not bet it yet.  I agree that Charlotte looks pretty locked into the 6 seed, so not much reason to tire out their starters and/or risk injury.

TWolves are playing good ball but Rockets can be a real wild card.  Harden exerted a lot of energy yesterday, so perhaps that will be in TWolves favor today.  I wish the line was larger, I would jump on TWolves +7.

As for the Suns, you are correct about the Kings potentially losing the top 10 protected draft pick.  Right now they have the 8th worst record, but they are only 1/2 game better than Knicks and only 1 game back of Denver and Milwaukee and 2 games back from Orlando.  So they are in a bit of danger to slide from 8th worst team to 9th, 10th, 11th if they win one or both of their last 2 games.

The problem I have with the Suns is that they keep having injuries.  They are without a very key player tonight in Archie Goodwin who has been playing very solid basketball lately.  Since Bledsoe and Knight are out for the year, all they have left is Ronnie Price.  They are also without their big guy Tyson Chandler as well.  He can be random mixing good games with bad games, but I think his back up Alex Len kind of sucks.

Suns have 4th worst record but could move up to 3rd worst if they lose remaining games and Nets somehow miraculously win a few.  Overall, it does seem likely Suns will try hard regardless of who is on the floor.  It is just that Kings still have a reasonable amount of talent on the court tonight with Rudy happy, Darren Collison, Ben McLemore, Seth Curry, and Willie Cauley-Stein all being decently capable players.  I'm just not sure I have confidence that Suns have enough offensive talent left to outscore the Kings bench by 7 points.  Looking at the Suns roster to play tonight, only guys I have any faith in are Devin Booker, Mirza Teletovic, and maybe PJ Tucker.  They will need Ronnie Price to play well for sure.

I am going to fade the offensively challenged Angels going up against Sonny Gray tonight. The Angels are 29th in hitting with 1 home run, a .200 batting average and a .259 on base percentage. We all know that regression will be coming the Angels way. The question is will it be coming against Gray tonight? I don’t think so. Gray has owned the Angels over his entire career going 5-2 in 11 starts with a 3.18 ERA. Since 2013, the Angels have a batting average of .213 against Gray with a .262 on base percentage. In total they have managed 54 hits in 11 starts against Gray. Gray is exactly what the Angels don't need right now. Gray looked very sharp against the White Sox giving up 3 hits over 7, and just one run. We are getting Gray at a manageable -142 perhaps because everyone is expecting an offensive explosion from the Angels’ big bats, but I think Oakland gets the win tonight.

Bubba, give me Oakland -142 (Gray) as the $$$$ play.

After some thought, I tailed you this one and also took Cubs team total o4 for good measure.  Cubs should be able to power hit for a few runs with the wind blowing out, and Cincy small ball could result in a few runs for them due to their speed. 

I thought about taking Oakland tonight but instead be the Angels team total under 3.5 runs.  It was less juice to bet that instead of Oakland to win, and I figure if Angels manage to plate 4 or more runs than Oakland bet would be in trouble anyway. 

I posted on another site that CIN city might pull out a win here but since i posted late here, i wont include it as a play.

Even though it did not work out well for me last go around, I bet the same prop bets for Utah center Gobert to get over 11.5 rebounds and over 21.5 points + rebounds.

I lost the last time I tried this, as the Clippers Cole Adlrich just totally outplayed all Utah bigs.  Luckily for me, Dallas Mavs are a tad size challenged and do not have a Cole Aldrich on their roster.  Pachulia is just average at center, and their other replacements are mostly power forwards like Justin Anderson and Villanueva.  Plus, Dallas just played last night and now playing at high elevation.  This is an older team, so hopefully a lot of jump shots will fall short and give Gobert lots of chances to rebound.

Milwaukee Bucks +3

Shame on me for ever thinking this spineless team had it in them to win two straight games on the road.  Milwaukee has talent but zero heart.

Tomorrow's thread is live.  Will get the standings updated in the AM.

Easy win with the Cards...Just need Sonny Gray to do his thing and win this parlay for me!! 

WOW! What a way to pull that one out! We definitely will take it!

Sorry for posting this loser. Oakland stinks

Sucks for both of us.  I also lost my Angels team total under 3.5 in the 8th inning.    Just not our night I guess.  Bummer.