Call me crazy

Question

I am parlaying the Mariners with Beavan on the mound with under 8.5 at +600 odds.

Yes it may seem crazy, but here is my logic. First off the Mariners are going to win a game eventually (maybe?). Next the Red Sox have never seen Beavan before and both the Yankees and Red Sox have historically had issues when facing young pitchers for the first time. And my final point is the reason for the parlay, the Mariners don't hit anyone and they are only winning this game if Beavan pitches well (I am thinking something along the lines of a 3-2 win). In fact the Mariners last win where there was over 8.5 runs scored came on June 12.

I don't expect the Mariners to win, but this is more of a gut feeling and I think +600 is a pretty decent value. Anybody have any comments, or simply want to tell me I am an idiot?

gehrenberg · Answer

I am parlaying the Mariners with Beavan on the mound with under 8.5 at +600 odds.

Yes it may seem crazy, but here is my logic. First off the Mariners are going to win a game eventually (maybe?). Next the Red Sox have never seen Beavan before and both the Yankees and Red Sox have historically had issues when facing young pitchers for the first time. And my final point is the reason for the parlay, the Mariners don't hit anyone and they are only winning this game if Beavan pitches well (I am thinking something along the lines of a 3-2 win). In fact the Mariners last win where there was over 8.5 runs scored came on June 12.

I don't expect the Mariners to win, but this is more of a gut feeling and I think +600 is a pretty decent value. Anybody have any comments, or simply want to tell me I am an idiot?

iplaypoker18 · Answer

Not crazy at all....I was pleasantly surprised when I saw how high the line was on the game.....anytime the Yankees or Red Sox are near       -300 because of a young pitcher against their stud, it has spelled trouble for bettors....I&#x27;m not saying I&#x27;m gonna bet the Mariners..but I sure as hell won&#x27;t lay the money on the Sox.

tinfoils · Answer

If you don&#x27;t expect the Mariners to win, then why not take them &#x2B;1.5 at &#x2B;$? Good luck!

buffalo11 · Answer

good luck

apeterson8809 · Answer

crazy&#xD;&#xA;BOL

gehrenberg · Answer

It is not always about what I expect the outcome to be as much as the value of the line. I bet my parlay at &#x2B;600 not because I think my parlay will hit, but rather because I think it will win better than 1 out of 6 times making it a good value. I have been pretty successful betting baseball at &#x2B;15.01 units for the season not because I am always betting on teams I expect to win, but rather on lines with strong value (at least values in my opinion).

SportsFreak69 · Answer

GL

Flschbrger · Answer

The value is absolutely there.  This is definitely a circumstance where you just run with it, regardless of how unlikely the scenario.  &#x2B;600 for this is too good to pass up.

MrBiggs · Answer

Could happen! Boston is the 3rd most public play on the board and also figures to get a lot of play on the RL. A lot of "Weekend Gamblers" will just see Beckett vs Seattle and bet it. I looked and really didn't find any weakness with Beckett, but the only thing is in his last 3 at home he has had 2 ND and has only gone and avg of 5 2/3 inn. To me the play looks to be the Under, just hope Beavan doesn't get rattled at Fenway!

BOL tonight!

gehrenberg · Answer

Wow needed to put one up on the board there but I still feel good about the parlay

aaronh91 · Answer

GL

3wizard9 · Answer

m&#x27;s

NumbNaam · Answer

mariners

Call me crazy

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