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CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2

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Prospect
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Posted: #601
Mcshady thank you I decided to hedge my bet out wasn't crazy about the prop bet.
 
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Posted: #602
@Nads

very interesting. And the last 10 plays have gone over the total. 
 
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Posted: #603
Dang...that SDQL thing is tricky.  Messed up:  Here are the correct numbers:

For the 2012 season (using the tricky SDQL stuff) - 
Home team scores first and wins = 32.3%
Home team scores first and loses = 12.4%
Away team scores first and Home Team wins = 20.9% 
Away team scores first and Home Team loses = 34.4%

In short, first to score loses has a 33.3% chance of hitting and a line around +200 would tell me that the odds makers think only a 33.3% chance.

Your bets (first to score DET and NY win) have 12.4% chance of hitting, using season actuals.  That is why I stay away from doubling those two up.

2012 Detroit at home:

DET score first and win = 39.3%
DET score first and lose = 11.9%
Away score first and DET win = 23.8%
Away score first and DET lose = 25.0%

Summary first to score and lose around 35.7% (better than a +200 line).  But DET score first and lose about 11.9%.

2012 NYY Away:
NYY score first and win = 36.9%
NYY score first and lose = 20.2%
home score first and NYY win = 16.7%
home score first and NYY lose = 26.2%

Summary first to score and lose around 36.9% (better than a +200 line).  But DET score first and lose about 20.2%.
 
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Posted: #604
Quote Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:

***For the 3rd straight home game not after***

Newfie, not seeing anything statistically relevant.

After 2 straight home games since 2006:

Home Favorites: 15-17 ATS (14-18 O/U)
Home Dogs: 11-7-1 ATS (10-8-1 O/U)
 
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Posted: #605
Ok last time - confusing myself now.

For NYY away game - home team (DET) score first and lose about 16.7%.

 done running numbers today...head starting to hurt.

Hope it helps and I haven't confused too much.  And share the errors in my calcs if there are more.

BOL everyone.
 
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Posted: #606
looks like seattle is up to 9. was at 7  earlier.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #607
Yearh seattle is up to +9 now. 

MJ, that program is really hard, i am trying to figure it out myself. Don't worry, you are a lot better than me =)
 
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Posted: #608
Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

^^^^^ mj

Your a Geek 

   Ausome stats mj.  Thanks!!

 
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Posted: #609
Quote Originally Posted by McShady:


Its been 5 Yankees games with NO Score. Id say its time for YES

Agree w McShady but for me still gonna ride the streak out esp w these 2 pitchers.  GL!!

 
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Posted: #610
Quote Originally Posted by Codearmani:

Yearh seattle is up to +9 now. 

MJ, that program is really hard, i am trying to figure it out myself. Don't worry, you are a lot better than me =)


For those interested, what I ran was:

Season stats:
Season=2012 and site=Home     to get the games played total
Season=2012 and site=home and SF   to get the home team SU record when they score first 
Season=2012 and site=Home and o:SF   to get the home team SU record when the away team scores first

For Detroit Stats: 
just add and team=Tigers to each of the 3 above

For NYY stats
change team to Yankees and site to away for the same 3 above


 
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Posted: #611
Im not playing a side in the NFL tonight. But I am considering the 49ers TT UNDER....
 
Legend
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Posted: #612
Their were 3 over time games last week, Det won as road dog + ov Phile, Ten won as home dog + ov Pit  & Buff won as road dog ov Ariz. Since last season, teams off an OT win playing without a Bye Week went 4-7 ATS, 12 of last 16 OT winners not off a Bye, failed to cover the next week, since the start of the 2011 season. Ten & Bu ff are playing each other, Det is at Chicago Monday Night...3 teams playing this week that won last week, but were outyarded by over 100 yds in that win, those teams were Clevland, Balt & Sea.
 
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Posted: #613
Quote Originally Posted by mjnorman59:



For those interested, what I ran was:

Season stats:
Season=2012 and site=Home     to get the games played total
Season=2012 and site=home and SF   to get the home team SU record when they score first 
Season=2012 and site=Home and o:SF   to get the home team SU record when the away team scores first

For Detroit Stats: 
just add and team=Tigers to each of the 3 above

For NYY stats
change team to Yankees and site to away for the same 3 above



Thanks man, appriciated 
 
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Posted: #614
Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

Im not playing a side in the NFL tonight. But I am considering the 49ers TT UNDER....

What line do you get? I have it at 23.5 O/U
 
Veteran
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Posted: #615
Quote Originally Posted by Go_Nads:

FYI, NFL this weekend has a nice play on a trend

Prior to week 9, Road teams that lost their previous game as a Home Favorite since 2006 are:

60-19-4 Over/Under

One play this weekend is Arizona/Minnesota Over 40

If anyone is wanting to check the SDQL, here is the query used: 
A and p:LHF and week<9 and season>=2006

What site are you guys using?
 
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Posted: #616
Quote Originally Posted by Codearmani:


What line do you get? I have it at 23.5 O/U

un24 -118
 
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Posted: #617
[Quote: Originally Posted by McShady]

un24 -118
 

 

Mines at 21 1/2

 
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Posted: #618
My Card
Yanks -110 (HedgeBet)
ASU +10
Seahawks to score 1st +150

Lean
49ers TT un24




Off to class....Later!
 
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Posted: #619
Quote Originally Posted by Jonesin:

Quote Originally Posted by McShady:


un24 -118
 

 

Mines at 21 1/2


Whats ur Total /Spread? Mines 38/9.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #620
Quote Originally Posted by paster21:


What site are you guys using?

Guys a great way to back test some of these trends is

NFL: https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query
NCAAF: https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query
NBA: https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query

It takes a little while to get the hang of it, but it is a great tool.  There is also a Google Group that you can search for answers when you get stuck on how to check something: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!forum/sportsdatabase

For instance, for the NFL trend I posted earlier: Road Fave off a Bye I checked it here (remember I didn't count the SB): https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?sdql=p%3Aweek%2B2+%3D+week+and+AF+and+season%3E2006&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Sorry for all the links.  Hope it helps.
 
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Posted: #621
38 / 9
 
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Posted: #622
Quote Originally Posted by Jonesin:

38 / 9


Your site is "squeezing" lines then....

38 - 9 = 29 / 2 = 14.5 + 9 = 23.5 (TT of the favorite)


See Yall
 
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Posted: #623
I am still at 7.5 / 38 with total SF 23.5 -115
 
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Posted: #624

Thanks Nads.

 

Not sure if Smith is gonna be healthy in the hand/finger. Think we see lot of screens, bootlegs and slants inside tonight with these two mobile passers, ball gonna stay on the ground with two good running  back teams and clock going to burn. Not sure what the props are on punts and FG's tonight. Can't see SF throwing long with Smith hurt and that punishing secondary of the Seahawks. If Seattle is gonna have a chance they are gonna have to keep their offense on field and SF offense on sidelines. Ball possession and field advantgae will be key tonight. Smash Mouth football at it's finest.

 

 I'm picking this game to tie+3pts either way on proline, at Greek +3.5 is +145 and the line is 7.5. 19-16 or thereabouts 2 TD's at most

Same with Arizona State +3.5 picking both to tie on underdog thursday.

 
 
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Posted: #625
Another one for you SDQL people:

ATS 7-1

home team, game on thursday, home favorite with line -6.5 or less (meaning more than TD favorite), favored previous game and loss at home

day=Thursday and site=home and p:site=home and p:F and p:ATSL and line<-6.5


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