Dodgers Vs Nats, 4/24/24

Posted Record: 13-4-2 (+14.6 units)

Today's play is a combination of a good situational spot and regression toward the mean.

The situation is pretty self explanatory. There are 2 NL teams (Dodgers and Braves) that you don't want to a face a week after blanking them for 6 innings. That's exactly what Jake Irvin did to LA last week. The Dodgers offense is so prolific that when they're in a revenge spot, I will back them every single time. Same goes for ATL.

As far as regression toward the mean, it's pretty self explanatory as well. Obviously, the Dodgers are much better than their record. They're clearly underachieving. I like that they're coming off 2 straight W's and look to be righting the ship. In fact, they started last season with a 14-11 record and finished with 100 wins.

The Nats on the other hand have clearly been overachieving. They have some nice young players (CJ Abrams in particular). However, this team will find themselves in the gutter soon, where they belong. I like their future, but they're clearly in rebuild mode and an almost 500 record will not hold up.

I realize the Nats just saw Landon Knack last week as well. Knack by the way is a nice young pitcher with a good career ahead of him. But, the Nats lineup doesn't strike fear in anyone. And even if they get to him for a few runs, I can't see them outscoring LA today.

The line on this one is interesting. You can lay -175 on the ML, -145 (at -1) or -117 (at -1.5). I don't like the price at -1.5. Seems too high for a ML of -175. Also, because it's Knack and not a veteran, I'm going to stick with the juice and lower my units to avoid significant damage (if it's a loss).

I'm on the Dodgers at -175 for 2 units. Like I said last time I played LA, it's okay to call me a square..... I like the spot.

Cheers and BOL to all

You were on point the other night on the Jays. BOL

LFG

@Kaufee

Love the analysis, BOL my friend!!!

Best of luck on the play Kaufee.  

@Jarrett75 -

@lik122 -

@Fuse -

@FelixFermin21 -

@Coloneljim -

I realize I'm not going out on a limb by playing LA and you'll rarely see me lay -175 and up. But, I'm okay paying a premium in a spot like this.

@Kaufee

 Nice to see you on the Dodgers.  Stay hot Kaufee. 

@Kaufee

@PUSSYGALORE333 -

@Brocknroll -

@OO7CRUSHER -

Cheers Sir Kaufee  

I'll be at the game.

We love LA....We love it!

@Kaufee

 Thanks Kaufee 

@umgmu

 Enjoy man  

@money_come2me -

 @umgmu - Looks like a nice day to be at the yard. 70 degrees at first pitch. Enjoy the game!

 @ABooksNightmare -

 @Mick_Dundee -

@Seymourbukz -

@NeilJ777

I 100% agree with you, I might even go further and say after the weird week the Dodgers had dropping series to the Padres, Nats, and Mets, they will go on a semi run or sorts. I am going to Parlay the -169 with the Braves to wipe out the extra juice. GL and stay HOT Kaufee!

Thanks Tony! Not a bad a 2 teamer at all. I'm jealous of the -169 line you got. None of my books had anything lower than -175

@Kaufee

I use an offshore with almost the exact lines as Pinnacle, I personally think they might get sued if it wasn't an off shore site for copyrights lol. I caught it at -169 after the line opened at -175, its sitting at -171 right now. I have another site I use for much bigger bets with slightly higher lines they were at -170 when I was entering my bets. 

Hope I do not get burn trying to save some juice, thanks! Lets HIT this ONE!!

@kidd22

@Taipei-Tony - Ha, I've always wished I could join Pinnacle. Great shop and lines as you've discovered. Even -171 is solid.