Final Season Numbers and Thoughts

Final regular season numbers:

2024   1101-1009   +4451

This was actually my highest Unit total at any point of the year by about a half a unit.

It was better than last year, but not quite as good as years before.

2023    959-928   +2587

2022    682-585   +8192  

I had to make some adjustments after last year for various reasons.  For example, I was not able to find as much value on Runline plays as in years before.

I had to start playing more 1st5 inning plays as well.

I had to adjust to some of the newer ways the game is being played.

I do not like some of the newer things the MLB has done.  Even though I understand why some of the things are being done, I just do not like them that much.

For example, I am not a big fan of the phantom runner being placed on base in extra innings.  I understand why it was done.  I just think it takes away from the intent of the game.  I think it for sure has achieved the intended results of making the games not last too long.

But from a wagering standpoint, it makes it more difficult to play certain plays as often as in the past.

For example, in a good close game that should be a pitching duel and fairly low-scoring — it is difficult to play the UNDER.  It is a game that could very easily go to extra innings — and it may go to extra innings as a low-scoring game.  But it might still sail OVER the total due to the phantom runners.

I also think this gives the away team a bigger advantage than they should have in this situation.  They can easily ‘accidentally’ have a big inning because of this.  Then the home team is put in a bad spot because they have to play much differently because they cannot play to get just one run to win or tie the game.  They have to also try to have a ‘big’ inning in what was already a close and low scoring game.

Part of this is another big issue I have with the ‘new’ way things are being done.  That is the exhaustive use of pitchers nowadays.

We saw this today, to a certain extent in the G1 NYM/ATL.

Managers now take out their starter far too quickly sometimes.  This is another reason I started to feel there was more value on 1st5 inning plays.  That way, at least you are getting the starters mostly in that timeframe.

Once they take the starter out, they do not really plan for the next pitcher to pitch more than one inning.  So, now they are taking the starter out at a number of pitches, or the first ‘sign’ of trouble.

There is absolutely nothing to back this up from an injury-prevention standpoint, or preventing a tired arm later in the season, or even from an analytics standpoint.

My contention is that the more pitchers you bring into a game the more likely you are to finally find one that the other team can hit.  Or one that will give up a single, single, walk and then a homerun — before you can even think about yanking him.  Every pitcher in the bullpen cannot be on top of his game at all times.  So, you are never sure exactly what you will get in a watered down league where so many pitichers are used.

So, instead of having a starter that goes fairly deep into the game, a setup man (maybe two), then a closer — you now have at least 4 pitchers going into the game and often 5 or 6.  That takes a lot of the value out of full game plays on sides, totals, and for sure runlines.

Then you couple this with the fact that the pitchers are not pitching to contact anymore but taught to throw all out on every pitch.  Then the batters are all concentrating on velocity angle and homeruns.

I just think this takes away somewhat from the fundamentals of baseball.

I am also not a big fan of limiting throws to first.  I understand the pitch timer, I guess.  This certainly achieved the intended result —more running and more steals.  But I see it as along the same lines as all of the runs from the ‘phantom’ runners — just simply not legit.  To me, as a fan, this takes away from the game.  It also changes the dynamics of handicapping.

I am sure there are PLENTY of fans that love it more for these changes and that is fine.  Because all of this achieved the desired result.

I am also not a big fan of banning the shift.  Let players be anywhere on the field and teach batters to bunt or hit away from the shift.

But again, I understand the league wants to make the game more fan-friendly and they want to try to draw in new fans and younger fans.

I also have a couple of issues with the playoff format now.  I get wanting to have more teams in the playoffs but I think there are a couple of drawbacks.

With a 3-game series, absolutely anything can happen.  The better team will not be able to have time to overcome a mistake or two — like they would in a 5-or 7-game series.  I get the point that they should have done better during the season and not put themselves in that situation.  But the ‘obviously’ better team could have had injuries or something during the season to barely miss out on a 1 or 2- seed spot.  But are in a way ‘punished’ simply because the league wants more teams in the playoffs and they slipped up in some way in game 1 of a 3 game series.

The other issue I have with the current format is that too much time off can be detrimental sometimes for the top two seeds.  Unless, they really need the time to heal some injuries — they can be sort of rusty.  Then a team that has literally been in playoff form for the last two weeks of the season and has not had time off to get rusty comes to town and jumps all over them.  

Maybe in a 7-game series the better team should be able to overcome a bad game — but it is very difficult if it is 2 bad games.

I know this sounds like a lot of bellyaching.  I really do not intend it to be that way.

I really still like the game a lot and am looking forward to an exciting postseason.

I simply am pointing out some of the difficulties with handicapping and what can easily go wrong with ‘normal-thinking’ handicapping.

I understand that a lot of fans would like to see their team in the World Series and the league likes it to be wide-open.

I just think it would be better for baseball if the best two teams were set up to have a better chance to make it.  But I feel they are handcuffed in a way under the current format.

I think it would be awesome if the Dodgers and Yankees were to make it.  You would have the best two teams, with the best two players going against each other.

It is also the top two markets and the East Coast versus the West Coast.

It would also be an international draw with Ohtani involved.

Either way, I am sure it will be an exciting playoffs and World Series no matter who makes it.

I think overall it was a very exciting season that had some exciting and unexpected things that happened.

Here’s to a great Postseason!

solid season 

Way to go. I agree with all but one of your opinions. 

The 1/2 seeds deserve to have an advantage and home field in baseball doesn’t matter. They are hitting off live pitching and a few days difference doesn’t matter. I would argue it gives them a mental break because games are a lot more stressful than going out and hitting off one’s own pitching staff. 

I also get why they made the changes but for a sport that cares so much about records, changing the format lessens future records imho. 

@Raiders22

 Way to go Raiders, Congrats on another winning season, excellent job, I have much respect for you in your capping abilities, thanks for sharing your thoughts with us, continued success in the Playoffs.

OO7CRUSHER.