First Inning Runs 8/1

First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the outcome of this prop.

This season 317-283, +44.8 units, last season 180-170, +37.05 units
Current YTD YES%=53.1%

CWS/Min YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -104 or better)
Hou/Mil YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -111 or better)
Pit/CHN YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -111 or better)
AZ/LA YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -111 or better)
TB/Oak YES +110, 2 units (must bet -101 or better)
Phi/Was YES +100, 2 units (must bet -111 or better)
Mia/Atl YES +110, 2 units (must bet -101 or better)
Tor/Sea YES +115, 1 unit (must bet +110 or better)
NYM/SF NO -145, 2 units (must bet -160 or better)

GL

BOL to you today, looking to tail you on one of those 2 unit YES plays.

gl 

You and I ate both on the yes game!!

I'm going Yes, across the whole damn board today. Every game, simply because I couldn't find one NO at all.

BOL to you and I!

are*

Thanks.  You too.  I had to pass on several of the games because their YES lines didn't have any value.

Yea, I'm pretty mixed about that as well. Ideally, I would go opposite on high scoring games and it's a hit or miss. But today's card, looking at all the pitchers and how each team is doing lately...plus my gut feeling. I'm liking the whole card YES.

I love when the yes hits for the low OU too. All the juice we win just covers for a normal bet loss in the end.

Good luck totalguy!

It does look like a heavy YES day. 

4-1, +4.15 units on the day games.

GL

nice work man.

Do you have the 1st inning Hits+Runs+Errors prop at your book?

I find it works out nicely for those games with high juice in the 1st that you really expect a run in but don't want to pay the high price.

very good so far....

I'm sitting at 5-1

i been following u are u are the man. I like your concepts. Why wait out a whole game instead of getting good value in the 1st inning alone. GL keep it up.

I am sick right now, totals went 13 yes 2 no.....i kept chsing the no all night and kept losing more more and more

Thanks for the night games. I went 3-1 with you. Im suprised the Gaints game was a score but I still came out good. Keep it up sir. BOL to u

Sorry to hear about your rough night FTP.  The first inning NO is likely the worst chase option available.

Finished up 7-2, +6.6 units.  21-5, +23.05 units over the last 3 days due, in large part, to the YES hitting at a 69% clip over that time.

Should have some day game plays today.

GL

What time will you be posting for day games. I will try and check due to me going to work at 10am. BOL sir

Lines don't come out for day games at most books until after 11am Eastern.

I can say that for the SD/Cin game with an O/U of 8.5, any YES at -111 or better has value.

GL

gl 

Total Guy - read post all time - nice work and nice avatar too lol.

1. I have thought of this but didn't have the forethought of adding this as a variable to my data set.  At this point, I would likely need at least 3 months of data to even feel comfortable in using the historical results of 5 inning totals to determine value.  I would agree that 5 inning O/U would be at least as correlated to outcome as the full game O/U.

2.  Interesting thought. Adding the OPS of the first 3 hitters would be interesting.  Obviously a ton more work.  At this point, I can crank out plays for the day in less than 10 minutes.  Adding player and team specific data would increase than exponentially.  Would it be worth the potential additional r-squared?  Perhaps.

3.  Started at the beginning of the 2011 season, almost 4000 games now.  Trying to keep a homogenous data set in terms of total runs scored.  For example, between 2001-2009, the average runs scored per game was 9.4.  In 2010, it dropped to 8.8.  Since then, it was dropped again down to 8.6.  Interestingly, the YES% hasn't had the same rate of decline.

4.  I update these every day.  The value that I state in parentheses for each play is 1 cent better than breakeven for that game.

Exactly right about line shopping and understanding when that line has value and when is doesn't.  The current data sets for each total value range from 270 (O/U 6.5) to 752 (O/U 8.5).  I don't play any games where the O/U is 6 or less or 10 or more because of the small sample sizes for those values of O/U.

Thanks for the insight.  I really appreciate it.

GL