Flat betting in Baseball....

Quote Originally Posted by HeyRube:

yeah but try that with these no calculator owning degenerate locals i have to deall with   they can barely keep my figure right using 1 unit fav or dog.....

I suggest that if you are serious about making money betting, you make a change.

Quote Originally Posted by kcdjr25:

who cares if its flat or not, 1 unit to some is a hundred and some its a thousand who cares... if i have a million and bet 50 units-50gs, if i lose it mean s nothing just like your post

And such is the current state of covers.

Without a "lock of the day" thread title, or a pick inside - people just arent interested in making more money.  They just want their next fix.

This thread was intended for those interested in being serious about making money, not those interested in afternoon action with their local for fun.

Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:

-120 fav:  risk .91 to win 1.09

should read:

+120 dog:  risk.91 to win 1.09

CORRECT!!!

I actually looked over those examples 3 times and knew I would still fuck one of them up.

(colors, emoticons, and typeface added for effect)

I dont measure things like "am I profitable for the day".  Not being obnoxious, just telling you that a "day", "week", or "month" are arbitrary time periods.  I dont want to be profitable today, I want to be profitable longterm - so your question doesnt apply to me.

If you flat bet, you should bet all of your bets the same.  Some flat bet with a higher unit size and a lower unit size.  Personally, I bet baseball based on 1 unit plays and 1.5 unit plays, never higher and never lower.

GL

This is fine, but please understand you are not flat betting.

Clearly a +130 dog is less important in your betting strategy than a +180 dog.  If you are OK with that, then fine, but if for some reason your +180 plays come in less than your +130 plays (weighted) then you are going to lose money.

GL

Yes you are correct, however, my % on +180 would have to be 25 points lower than my % on +130 for that to happen. Possible but not probable in the long run. I have not seen many people talk about flat betting but if it works for you, that's great. I think as far as baseball wagering goes, that the most important thing is to wager on dogs 80 to 90% of the time. This will keep your bankroll growing whether you flat bet or whatever.

Van,

Assuming dog plays win how can you lose money on any dog? Whether it's +130 or +180. I know you win more with +180 but I don't understand how you would lose money if betting +130's

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If anyone wants to put this in an excel spreadsheet, this is how you do it:

 

So on a spreadsheet it looks like this...

 

Cell A1 type "Unit Amount"

Cell B1 enter desired midpoint of your wager

Cell A2 type "Line"

Cell B2 enter line (with no - or +, for instance "120" or "180")

Cell C1 type "Bet amount if dog"

Cell C2 enter formula:  "+(A2*2)/((B2/100)+1)"

Cell D1 type "Bet amount if fav"

Cell D2 enter formula:  "+(A1*2)-C2

 

CORRECTION:

I fucked that up horribly....

Let me try that again....

AH. . .  that's why I wasn't getting the function right.

Thanks for that info vanzack...

Van, I am somewhat confused.   You say if the +180 plays come in less than the +130 plays you will not profit.  This is simply not true.  You do not expect to win the +180 plays as often as the +130 plays do, nor do you need them to come in as often.

Example  100 plays at +180, you win 40 lose 60, if you are risking 1 unit, you profit 12 units

100 plays at +130, you win 45 lose 55, you profit 3.5 units. 

I think you should risk the same on any sized dog, becuase the number of times you need to win is all relative to the size of the dog.  You are simply short changing yourself if you bet more on the +130 dogs when you believe both have equal value.  Just my two cents, correct me if I have mispoken.