Good Morning everyone, we have a full slate of games today! Last night's Yanks/Nationals game was not fair to be called so soon, who knows what would have happened. Nonetheless, a loss is a loss.
0-1, -1 Unit
Onto today, I am crunching some numbers and will be back shortly with writeups and selections!
GL everyone and God Bless Baseball! haha
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
See analytical system breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Braves: 9.64
Mets: 19.17
Starting Lineups:
Braves: 60.66
Mets: 67.71
Bullpen:
Braves: 5.01
Mets: 8.12
Clear advantages across the board for the Mets. Not to mention the line movement, opened at -140 and up to -170 now with the sharp money on the Mets. Public wager counts are on the Braves at around 68% but the money, over 58% is on the Mets. The books are tempting you to take the Braves at huge + money against the "abysmal" Mets. Let's see if this movement stands but for now, I am locking this in:
New York Mets ML -170 (2 units)
New York Mets -1.5 RL +130 (1 unit)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
See analytic system breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Brewers: 15.37
Cubs: 11.86
Starting Lineups:
Brewers: 67.91
Cubs: 59.37
Bullpens:
Brewers: 5.74
Cubs: 4.47
Across the board advantages for the Brewers according to my analytical system. I love when my system aligns with the linesmakers movement. This line opened at Cubs -126 and is now at -115. Currently, according to my sources, the Cubs are receiving 56% of the money. Larger money on the Cubs yet the line moves against their favor? Something smells fishy here.
Milwaukee Brewers ML +105 (2 units)
Have a rare team total play...see below:
The Toronto Blue Jays have the LOWEST starting lineup total based on my analytical system today, they have a rating of 52.47. Average is around 60, anything below is a red flag for a low scoring game. They are also facing a pitcher in Charlie Morton with a rating of 19.74 which is above average. Looking at the line, we have an agreement with my system. Why? The total is receiving over 70% of the money on the OVER. This is a perfect UNDER game but we are taking:
Toronto Blue Jays to score UNDER 3.5 runs (1 unit)
New York Mets ML - 2 unit Winner!
New York Mets RL - 1 unit Loss
Updated Record: 1-2, 0 units
Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics
See analytical system breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Angels: 16.15
Athletics: 14.93
Starting Lineups:
Angels: 54.40
Athletics: 58.91
Bullpens:
Angels: 5.13
Athletics: 7.20
Interesting play here as the starting pitching shows the Angels to have a slight advantage but not by much. Starting lineups and bullpen are clear Athletic advantages. Why am I playing this? Because if Montas gets into any trouble, we have a solid bullpen to follow and control the game. As well as the lines makers here are increasing the Athletics line (opened at -130 and now at 150) yet the wagers have been 50/50 to this point. This means they are begging for Angels action by increasing the + money. Let's not forget the Oakland A's have one of THE BEST offenses in the league against left handed pitching, last year they ranked 6th in the MLB and had a win/loss record of 35-14 against left handed pitching.
Oakland Athletics ML -150 (2 Units)
Oakland Athletics RL -1.5 +135 (1 Unit)
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
See analytical breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Twins: 15.68
White Sox: 20.35
Starting Lineups:
Twins: 61.25
White Sox: 58.78
Bullpens:
Twins: 5.21
White Sox: 5.18
The analytical system shows a clear pitching advantage for the White Sox while the starting lineups and bullpens are close enough to be considered even. The biggest advantage here is the lines makers mindset, they opened the line at Twins -115 and is now at Twins -105 with over 84% of the money on the Twins. Why have the line move against them? Are they begging for more money on the Twins? With a strong starting pitching value, we are taking the White Sox.
Chicago White Sox ML +100 (2 Units)
Final Play for the day:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
See analytic breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Diamondbacks: 13.90
Padres: 14.95
Starting Lineups:
Diamondbacks: 63.37
Padres: 66.09
Bullpens:
Diamondbacks: 4.27
Padres: 6.18
Clear advantages across the board for the San Diego Padres. Everyone sees the name of Bumgarner and expect him to have a great day but my system shows otherwise, he should get hit. The most important thing here is that the majority of the wagers AND money is on the Padres yet the line is moving in the Padres way. Follow this and overtime you will be more successful than not.
San Diego Padres ML -140 (2 Units)
Established in 1995,
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