Friday Manipulated Games System

This is his explanation: 

The manipulated game system is built around a couple key concepts used by lines makers and books to make money, and by successful bettors to make money.  It's a best of both worlds system.

The first thing we look at is the opening line.  This is the KEY and biggest thing that separates this system from most other contrarian systems.  We're using the win probabilities 538 has calculated for us to calculate our ROI's with.  For a team to be added to the "notable lines" they MUST be a team with under a 50% win probability deemed by 538 and have an ROI of at least -7%.  ROIs are used because they are a calculation of how much the line has to move rather than just taking all games that have a negative move.  Lines have to move more or less to move a 1% in ROI based on their % to win and their price.  It's not the same amount for every game, that's why we use the ROI calculation.  

The way we calculate ROI's is taking the win probability and multiplying by the line.

Example.  

A's 39% +115.  (39 x 115) = 4485.  This is the amount of money we have won out of 100 games.

Now we calculate the losses, which is just taking the other teams win %, which is 61% and multiplying 61 x 100, which are your losses which gives you -6100.

You add 4485 and -6100 which gives you -1615 divide by 100, which gives you 16%.

This is your opening ROI and since -16% is greater than -7% it's a "notable line"

Somebody once asked, well why are we taking the teams, that 538 has projected to lose.  Doesn't that just mean their projections are off?  You could look at it that way, but considering there are other variables, such as (x) which Barney alluded to, it's hard to justify them being off when their projections mainly take statistics and some of more predictable variables such as travel and starting pitching into consideration.  Database and number enthusiasts would be in the same ball park for an expected win % based off the same factors that aren't necessarily the kind of factors that change with real time like weather, psyche of a players. etc.  That's why we also rely on the line movements also.  They help us get a good idea of some of those game time variables and how much they affect or don't affect the game.  These teams will almost always have less bet tickets which would make the move an RLM, which is always a good thing.

The cool thing about baseball is that the lines don't have to move in relation to one another like a spread.  The lines can be adjusted more for one team than another.  That's how the money is made for the books.  They can cut the line down more on what's deemed to be the sharp side, and less on the square side.

When they lose, they have already minimized their losses by cutting out the value from the opening line, it's almost like they expect to lose.  If a line jumps back up, it could have just been an "off line" and for us it's considered a no play, and for the books it still doesn't hurt them back that much because when it jumps up, since it already opened so low, it may end up at the point it was supposed to start at to begin with.  Pinnacle has even made it public many times that they're cool with losing to the sharps.  They rely on the sharps to shape their lines, and their goals to rape the public, and they do.

Most all these plays are not only sharp plays, but their the most "off or manipulated" plays.  They're the plays that are intended to bait you into betting the favorite at low price.  

To beat the books, you have to think like them too.